After flapping their way to five consecutive wins as part of a redemptive 7-2 stretch, the St. Louis Cardinals are level at .500 on the season.
This upward move to 19-19 happened fast for an intriguing but mundane team seemed to be drifting into the bog swamp with a 14-19 record only six days ago.
Do you believe in miracles?
Me: Shaddup, Al Michaels.)
OK, but are the Cardinals now a contender?
Me: I don’t know how to answer that.
What do you mean, big mouth? You think you have all the answers.
Me: They’re a contender in theory. But only in theory. I need to see a lot more from these Redbirds and can’t overreact to a five-game winning streak. And I’ve enjoyed their success since April 30, the start of their current 7-2 run.
I’ll add this: it’s fun to see the Cardinals angling their way into contending to become an actual contender. Does that make sense? To me it does. To put it another way: the Cardinals are in the waiting room where aspiring contenders hang out, waiting for that door to open. And if it opens, then it’s up to them to make the move.
That’s also my way of saying: gotta show us more, Cardinals. And that’s fine. It’s better than having the Cardinals tripping up and rolling around with the Pirates (12-26) in the sediment on the NL Central’s basement floor.
To address the Question of the Day ...
REASONS WHY THE CARDINALS COULD BE A CONTENDER
1. Recent trends are encouraging. Going into the April 30 doubleheader at Cincinnati, the Cardinals were 12-17 and had the third-worst winning percentage (.414) among the 15 NL teams. Since then, the Cardinals are 7-2 and have the NL’s best winning percentage at .778.
2. A bloodied, wounded bullpen has stabilized. Before the Cardinals demoted reliever Ryan Fernandez and his 11.42 ERA to Memphis, Cardinal relievers had a 5.11 ERA, ranking 26th among the 30 MLB bullpens. Their relievers were charged with eight losses, the worst in the NL. Their bullpen had more blown saves (6) than saves (5) and had allowed 50 percent of inherited runners to score.
Since that move, and a restructuring of bullpen personnel, the St. Louis relievers have a 2.66 ERA (6th overall), have been credited with four wins (and no losses) and have four saves with only one blown save. And a reduced number of inherited runners have scored against STL relievers (32%) since April 25.
3. The Cardinals are formidable at home. Their 15-6 record at Busch Stadium translates into a .714 home winning percentage that ranks sixth in the majors behind the Dodgers (.833), Mets (.812), Tigers (.812), Padres (.777), and Royals (.737.) If they can sustain their home success, it would obviously strengthen their chances of being a legit contender.
4. The Cardinals have reversed an ominous trend: brought down by their highly inflammable bullpen and other secondary factors, the Cardinals went 0-5 in their first five games decided by one run. But with upgraded bullpen security, a defense that leads the majors in Outs Above Average and is third in Runs Saved, and an OPS of .745 with runners in scoring position since April 25, the Cardinals have won five consecutive games settled by a one-run margin.
5. The Cardinals’ starting pitching is sneaky good. Overpowering? No. Except for Sonny Gray and Matthew Liberatore, the STL rotation can’t rely on strikeouts to suppress hitters. But there’s more to pitching than just strikeouts. And after a slow start, the Cardinals have the sixth-best rotation ERA (3.30) in the majors since April 7 and are tied for 2nd with 14 quality starts over that time. This is another example of why a great defense can be such a strong asset.
6. The St. Louis offense is better than perceived. Through 38 games, the Birds with the Bats lead the majors in batting average (.260), are sixth in onbase percentage (.334), 11th in slugging pct. (.401), and 11th in OPS (.736). And this offense is 10th in the majors in In park-and-league adjusted runs created. All of this has been produced despite a sparse amount of offense by Norman Gorman and Jordan Walker and the injury (knee) absence of the hard-hitting Ivan Herrera, who hasn’t played since April 6. He’ll be back for the weekend series in Washington.
7. The NL Central sucks: So maybe the Cardinals can benefit from having more conflicts coming against the Reds, Brewers and Pirates.
Along with the Brewers and Reds, the Cardinals are in a three-way tie for second place, all at 19-19. The first-place Cubs have slowed, going 5-6 in their last 11 games, and they lead the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers by only 3 games.
All of these teams have problems … though the Cubs have the NL Central’s best offense by far, and they’ll have many chances to feast on the lesser teams in the division as the weather turns warm, then hot.
Despite playing one of the toughest schedules in baseball to this point – and facing a bunch of teams that pitch well – the Cubs lead the majors with an average of 5.87 runs per game.
So when I say the NL Central sucks, that term doesn’t really include the Cubs as a competitive entity. Well, Cardinals fans have been saying that for decades – and I’m good with that because of the rivalry. Insults are mandatory.
REASONS WHY THE CARDINALS ARE AN UNLIKELY CONTENDER
1. A true contender shouldn’t be futile on the road: The Cardinals are 4-13 away from Busch Stadium. Since the postseason format expanded in 2022 to include three wild-card contestants in each league, no team that went 4-13 or worse in their first 17 road games recovered to make the playoffs. But the 2024 Astros won the division title after going 5-12 in their first 17 road games.
The Cardinals have a credibility problem as a road team. At least to this stage, anyway. They’ll begin a three-city road trip Friday to Washington, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
The Cardinals haven’t won a road series this season, going 0-4 with one split. Their road winning percentage (.235) is the third-worst in the majors, ahead of only the White Sox and Rockies. That’s right; even the Pirates have a better road record (5-14) than St. Louis.
If the Cardinals want to be taken seriously as a potential playoff contender. Well, a three-city trip is a good way to start doing that. If the Cards stumble again, it will be almost impossible to see them as a genuine postseason contender.
2. Postseason Odds: The Cardinals have some hope, but not a lot of it. FanGraphs gives them a 13.6 percent shot at winning the division and a 19.2% crack at making the playoffs. The odds are much worse at Baseball Prospectus, with a 4.6 percent probability of winning the division and a 7.2% chance to make the playoffs.
3. STL’s Projected Final Record: 80-82 at FanGraphs, 79-83 at Clay Davenport’s respected analytical site, and a 78-84 mark at Baseball Prospectus. That ain’t gonna cut it – as in, if any of those projections are accurate, the Cardinals wouldn’t make the cut for the NL Central title or a wild-card entry.
4. Heavy Wild-Card Traffic: If we look at this objectively, the Cardinals will have a tough time trying to navigate their way through a crowded field. As of Thursday morning, nine National League clubs had a higher postseason probability than the Cardinals. If the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers become the three division champions, there are some heavyweight wild-card contenders waiting to get in – and the Cardinals would be, at best, near the back of the line.
Wild-card probabilities through May 7:
Giants, 57.4%
Padres, 55.5%
Diamondbacks, 45.9%
Phillies, 41.4%
Braves, 40.9%
Brewers, 6%
Cardinals 5.6%
Reds, 3.1%
5. Help at the deadline? With the Cardinals in a “transition” season that includes a lower payroll, what will president of baseball operations John Mozeliak do if the Cardinals have a chance – but a relatively slim chance – of making the postseason? The trading deadline is July 31 at 5 p.m. St. Louis time. Do you envision the Cardinals being aggressive buyers in the trade market? I don’t. I think the Cardinals are way more likely to be sellers than buyers. Their offerings could include closer Ryan Helsley, starting pitcher Erick Fedde, and starter-reliever Steven Matz. I guess I should mention Nolan Arenado – because the aggregator farms are borderline insane at spreading dozens of improbable (and laughable) Arenado trade rumors each month. It never ends.
Final question on this subject: if the Cardinals have hope of making the playoffs, and the time comes for upgrading rosters, do you really think this franchise will go in swinging aggressively to keep up with teams like the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks? And that’s just the National League. The talent pool of available trade pieces will also draw huge-level interest among the real contenders in the American League. If the Cardinals are interested in adding a player or pitcher – but with the most ambitious franchises sitting at the same table, making offers – why would anyone think the Cardinals would win the bidding?
6. How do the Cardinals define “trying to win,” anyway? If the Cardinals were really trying to win – even in this so-called “transition or “runway” season, they would have done more last offseason. Instead, Mozeliak waited until late in spring training to spend $2 million on free-agent reliever Phil Maton. It was a good move … but the only move. Will they raise payroll in a somewhat significant way to add a player or two between now and the deadline? Of course not. I mean, why would we believe otherwise after the deep payroll slashing, and offseason inertia? If anything, STL ownership-management will be enthusiastic about the opportunity to offload more payroll. Mozeliak held onto Helsley, Fedde, Matz, etc. because he believed those players would have more trade value near the deadline. We’ll see.
7. The Cardinals don’t always maximize the talent they already have: Michael McGreevy – who has pitched great in limited major-league chances – is in the Triple A Memphis rotation instead of the major-league rotation. And why did it take so long to promote pitcher Gordon Graceffo to St. Louis to reinforce a wobbly bullpen?
Utility man Thomas Saggese – who hit .341 with a .512 slugging percentage for the Cardinals in 14 games – was sent back to Memphis on April 28.
On that day, Saggese had more RBIs (7) than Alec Burleson, as many RBIs as Jordan Walker (7), and one less RBI than Nolan Gorman (8). But keep this in mind: Saggese did that in only 44 plate appearances – less than Walker (104), Burleson (83) and Gorman (56) all had more playing time than Saggese.
Also on April 28, Saggese had five extra-base hits for the Cardinals – which was more than Walker (3) and Burleson (3) and only one fewer than Gorman (5). Walker and Burleson play different positions than Saggese, yes. But I’m just trying to make a point. And should the Cardinals demote Gorman down the line, Saggese looms as the most likely replacement.
We can revisit the idea of the Cardinals as a potential contender at the close of business on June 1. They’ll have 15 road games and only six home games between now and then, and we’ll learn more about them.
8. Just to reinforce my earlier opinion: the Cubs are the best team in the division. So, no, I don’t think the Cardinals will beat them out for the division title. They'll have to go the wild-card route.
Yes, the NL Central stinks – but that’s more about the teams chasing the Cubs. Even with a bunch of pitching injuries, bullpen chaos and a brutal early schedule that had the Cubs playing 26 games against the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Phillies – the North Siders are 26-22.
Chicago has the sixth-best winning percentage in the majors against opponents that have a .500 winning percentage or higher. And the Cubs have played only six games against teams with a losing record. That means they’ll have plenty of opportunities to beat up on the weaklings between now and the end of the regular season.
The Cardinals will have plenty of opportunities to prove they can stagger the Cubs; the rivals will play each other in 13 games from June 23 through the end of the regular season. (Related thought: how would Ryan Helsley look in Cubbie blue?)
Cubs fans could take advantage of the significant percentage of Cardinals fans that are boycotting the team’s ownership-management by staying away from Busch Stadium this season. Heck, the games in St. Louis may turn into Wrigley Field South. And maybe the DeWitts can cash in by selling a lot of tickets to Cubs loyalists to turn Busch into a sea of blue.
According to Tankathon – the excellent site that tracks (among other things) each team’s remaining schedule … Well, the Cubs have the easiest schedule in the majors the rest of the way, facing opponents that collectively have a .465 winning percentage right now.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.