Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (5-7) vs Philadelphia Phillies (8-4)
Time: 7:15pm CT Friday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network, Matrix Midwest, KMOV-TV
Probable pitchers: Andre Pallante (1-0, 3.86 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (0-2, 6.35 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Phillies -115, Cardinals -105
Total: 7.5 (over -115, under -105)
Cardinals Back Home
The St. Louis Cardinals open a six-game homestand tonight at Busch Stadium against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Redbirds opened the season 4-2 at home but followed that up with a 1-5 road trip to Boston and Pittsburgh.
Line Moving In Cards’ Direction
The Cardinals opened up yesterday as an underdog in the neighborhood of +120, but the market has since bet them up to -105 where they are almost the joint favorite with the Phillies to win this game.
Andre Pallante will make the start for the Cards and has provided rock-solid consistency in his time in the rotation. Pallante has given up just two runs in each of his first two starts, and if you take it back to last season, he’s given up more than three earned runs only one time in his last eleven starts.
Nola On The Hill For Phils
This is a tough situational spot for the Phillies, as they had a long rain delay last night in Atlanta and fell to the Braves 4-2 in a game that ended at about 1am Eastern time.
The Phillies will give the ball to Aaron Nola, who has struggled to the tune of a 6.35 ERA in his first two starts. While definitely a good pitcher who has had a nice career, I do feel Nola is overrated due to the market he plays in and the fact he’s had some good postseason moments. Nola’s career ERA is 3.72 - for comparison’s sake, Sonny Gray’s career ERA is 3.52.
My Pick
I do have a feeling the Cardinals win tonight, but I’m not betting it because I think the value has been sucked out of the price.
But I will be betting a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings at plus money focused on Nola.
For the first leg of the parlay, I’m taking Nola to record at least 4 strikeouts. After having 8 K’s in his season-opening start against the Nationals, he recorded just 2 punchouts in his next start against the Dodgers. I’m highly confident Nola gets at least 4 strikeouts tonight because the last time he went back-to-back starts with fewer than 4 strikeouts was six years ago back in 2019.
The second leg is for Nola to allow over 1.5 earned runs. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, he’s given up 2 or more earned runs in 75% of his starts, including both outings against the Cardinals last season. The Cards are averaging 6 runs per game this season, so I think they can scrape out a couple runs against Nola tonight.
Combine these two plays and you get a nice plus money price.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at +104 on DraftKings - Aaron Nola 4+ strikeouts AND Aaron Nola over 1.5 earned runs allowed (bet up to -105)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer