Game Information
#15 Missouri Tigers (21-9, 10-7 SEC) vs #19 Kentucky Wildcats (20-10, 9-8 SEC)
Time: 11am CST Saturday
How to watch: ESPN
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Missouri -4.5
Total: 169.5
KenPom projection: Missouri 87, Kentucky 83
Mizzou Looks To Stop Slide
The Missouri Tigers look to avoid a three-game losing streak when they host the Kentucky Wildcats in the final game of the regular season on Saturday.
Mizzou has lost three of its last four due in large part to a slumping defense. The Tigers have given up 92 or more points in four of their last five games. They had previously allowed 90 points only one other time this season until this stretch.
Kentucky Strong Offensively, But Flawed
Missouri’s defense will be challenged once again by a Kentucky team that averages over 85 points per game and has the sixth best offense in the country according to KenPom.
But as strong as the Wildcats are on offense, they definitely have their flaws. The Cats allow 77 points per game, which is second worst in the SEC. And they have a negative turnover margin as well, which bodes well for Missouri’s disruptive defense that thrives on getting steals.
Good Matchup For Mizzou
Missouri has excelled this season when facing teams loose with the ball like Kentucky. The Tigers are 4-0 against teams in the SEC with a negative turnover margin, and they’ve won those games by an average of over 17 points.
Kentucky plays high-scoring games that tend to be fast and chaotic, which I think sets up well for a Mizzou team that can force turnovers in bunches. The Tigers steal the ball on 13.9% of their opponents’ possessions, which is the seventh highest rate in the country.
My Pick
I think of Kentucky as a poor man’s Alabama - and you saw what Mizzou did to the Tide a few weeks ago.
I just really think teams that play the fast-paced style of Alabama and Kentucky play right into Missouri’s hands. And as good as Kentucky’s offense is, Mizzou’s is better. KenPom has the Tigers pegged as the fifth best offense in the country.
Look for a fun, high-scoring game on Saturday that sees the Tigers prevail in what is sure to be a rowdy atmosphere on Senior Day in Columbia.
Pick: Missouri -4.5 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer