I come to you with a request: could we please stop already with the fainting-couch worrying over Jordan Walker’s swing in the aftermath of his monstrous star turn in the Home Run Derby?
I’ll tell you why this is ridiculous. Walker has made so many substantial changes to improve his swing this season, and the impact is profound. J-Dub went from being one of the most confused and unsure hitters in baseball (2024-25) to one that has a direct and forceful swing path that’s transformed his career.
Can we give the man some respect or are we going to sit here and fret that his first 93 games were a fluke? Can we give Walker the credit for his enhanced poise and intelligence instead of hyperventilating over the possibility that he ruined his swing technique and timing by blasting 21 homers to defeat Kyle Schwarber at Citizens Bank Park?
First, I’ll review every important area where Walker has improved because of his dedicated offseason project to develop a swing that delivers on his amazing bat speed and natural strength. You may be bored by the numbers, but you should embrace what the numbers mean.
1. Ground-ball rate. Fixed. It was a big problem. Not anymore. His current 41.6 percent GB rate is down 6% from last season and 8.4% from 2024.
2. Instead of hitting buckets of ground balls, Walker’s swing is putting pitches in flight at a much higher rate. Just as important, Walker has generated his career-highest pull rate on fly balls this season. And that’s the surest flight pattern to a home run. Walker’s air-pull rate was 15% last season and is up to 19.5% this season. Credit his outstanding swing changes and increased awareness of how to maximize his natural talent. He is attacking instead of hacking. Big difference.
3. Walker is aggressively smashing meatball pitches that enter the heart of the strike zone. This is a reflection of his pitch recognition. Last season he swung at meatball pitches at a rate of 69.8%. That’s up to 76% this season. And his contact rate on heart-of-zone pitches is up four percent, to 86%, this year. That’s a major step. He still has another flaw that he must improve, and I’ll get to that later.
4. Walker’s quality of contact – truly elite – can’t be overstated. Take a walk with me through his four-year career path:
Ideal Contact Rate: Career-high 48 percent, way up from where he’s been (37%) in previous seasons. The word for that is “transformative.”
Slugging percentage on contact: specifically pitches he bangs into fair territory. Here’s the year by year improvement starting with 2023:
.591
.526
.468
.734!
C’mon now – a 266-point increase in SLG-CON? One word for that would be “extraordinary.” And that’s no hype.
5. Walker’s bat speed (79.2 mph) is in the 100th percentile of MLB hitters. Can’t do any better than that. Except … it’s possible to do more with it by activating and implementing that bat speed to reach a consistently high speed. This season Walker is generating at least 75 mph bat speed on 86% of the pitches he connects with. Two seasons ago, that rate was 72.4%. Now he’s hitting that top-end speed figure 86 percent of the time? Is there a power back strapped to his back? No. He’s just that damn fast … and damn good.
6. Barrel rate: 7.5 percent as a rookie, 9.5% in his second year, 10.9% last season, and 14.5% in 2026. To repeat: the numbers Walker is putting up this season are no accident. This is a virtual across-the-board sweep of high-level improvement.
7. Squaring up the pitch: 26.7 percent last season and 30.2% in 2026. This matters. Another improvement that leads to hard contact. And the thing is, that 2026 rate is still on the low side. (Very low, actually). But the important thing is, he’s improving on it.
8. Speaking of hard contact: 42.5 percent as a rookie, 43.1% in his second season, 50% last year, and 51.5% in 2026. That 51.5% puts Walker above 93 percent of MLB hitters this year.
9. Ideal attack angle: this is a biggie. JW’s ideal attack angle rate this season is 54.4%. Two years ago it was 44.3%. (And 47.7% in 2025.) I’ll explain why this is such a substantial development in his rise as a power source. Let’s go bullet points here:
* The mechanical shift is one of the more definitive reasons behind the transformation of his entire statistical profile.
* Per Statcast, a hitter's attack angle is the vertical direction the sweet spot of the bat is traveling at the exact microsecond of contact. Statcast defines the "ideal" window as between 5° and 20° upward. That’s the sweet spot where the swing path perfectly matches the downward trajectory of an incoming big-league pitch.
* When Walker’s ideal attack angle rate was 10 percent lower, it led to an inconsistent swing path that caused him to step into the zone too steeply or drift forward and lose balance. That left Walker with a tiny point in space where the bat and ball could meet cleanly. If his timing was off, Walker would either swing over the ball or top it into the dirt.
* Lifting that rate to 54.4% means Walker has lengthened his hitting zone. His barrel is staying on the plane of the pitch longer. This gives him a wider margin for error. Even if he’s a tic early or late on a pitch, his bat is still traveling at an optimal upward angle that produces high-damage contact.
* The improved attack angle gives Walker more “reach” to get to pitches that he couldn’t get to or strike hard before.
* In summary: this is why Walker has shown such explosive improvement on SLG-CON and Ideal Contact Rate this season. That elite 79.2 mph bat speed now is shooting more line drives and elevating fly balls to cover longer distances.
The underlying mechanics propelled Jordan Walker's upturn to a .294/.354/.532 slash line and 143 wRC+ before the All-Star break.
OK, so how can Walker sharpen his hitting and do even more damage? He already has 22 homers and leads the majors with 74 RBIs. Can he find another level?
Yes. Walker still chases too many pitches out of the strike zone (35%) and the repercussions are severe. Just look at these contrasting sets of numbers:
Swinging at non-strikes: .186 average, .284 slug, 48% whiff-swing, 30.7% strikeouts, 26% hard-hit rate, 85.5 mph exit velocity, two homers.
Swinging at strikes: .337 average, .631 slug, 21.2% whiff-swing, 21.8% strikeouts, 59.2% hard-hit rate, 96.8% exit velocity, 20 home runs.
Parked at 2.7 fWAR already, J-Walk is on course for a fWAR of 4.5 or higher. Pitchers will be trying to trick him and mess with his confidence by changing patterns and trying to lure him into chasing junk. So he’ll have to adapt and adjust. And … stop swinging at the trash pitches out of the zone.
The Buffet …
— Spain vs. Argentina in the World Cup – the most prestigious championship game of any sport on the globe. After 37 days and 103 matches this sprawling and captivating event closes with Sunday’s climax match at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Spain is a substantial betting favorite.
— We’re in for a treat. We’re in for thrills. And hopefully a lot more drama. The clashing styles make this encounter even more appealing. Spain’s virtually flawless defensive brilliance will try to suppress Argentina’s relentless competitiveness and refusal to give in … knowing that Messi is walking the pitch, surveying the land, studying the opponent, and waiting to slither through an opening to bury an immaculate goal or set up a teammate with a phantom pass that’s converted into a score a half-second later.
— Argentina can become the first team to retain the World Cup since Brazil in 1962. Spain arrives on a record-tying 37-match unbeaten streak, matching Italy’s all-time European mark established between 2018 and 2021. Both are chasing history on Sunday.
— As many astute soccer authors have noted, Spain’s attacking threat will emerge from the wide areas. Which makes sense because that’s where Argentina have been most susceptible.
— Soccer writer Alex Blowers pointed this out: “Every goal Argentina have conceded in this tournament — against England, Switzerland, Egypt, Cape Verde and Jordan — originated from crosses into the box or wide area play.”
— Messi is 39 years old and has no equal. He’s still a game-breaker, heart-breaker, show-stopper … and master assassin. His generation of domination may be ending soon, but not necessarily Sunday. Waiting to fill the void some day is Lamine Yamal, described by many as the next big thing in football. He’s the 19-year-old, a generational talent, who could lead Spain to take Argentina’s title while Yamal takes Messi’s crown.
— Spain comes with the necessary apparatus to prevail. They’ll own the possession time, slow Argentina with a smothering midfield, and control tempo. In this World Cup Spain has not trailed for even a single second of a match in the knockout stage. Argentina has stunned multiple opponents with astonishing comebacks. Incredibly Argentina has trailed more than any World Cup Finalist since 1966, but there will be no escape this time.
— There are all sorts of metrics that point strongly to a Spain triumph. Their players have covered more distance than any side in this World Cup. (Argentina is 48th; they’ve covered the shortest amount of distance.) Argentina has gone into extra time twice; Spain is younger and fresher and faster.
— Argentina has the man.
— Spain has the team.
— Viva la Roja! Or as the old-timey sportswriter from Spain would proclaim at his trusty typewriter from his berth on press row in New Jersey …
“Messi danced, yes — he always dances — but tonight the music belonged to Spain. With the Hudson’s evening breeze whispering through the famous Meadowlands, Spain marched forth as if carried by the very winds of destiny. Viva la Roja! For today she has conquered not just Argentina, but the very myth of Messi himself.”
My old-timey scribe is on his game!
Thanks for reading …
Have a fantastic weekend ..
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.