As I noted in Friday’s “Bernie Show” video at STL Sports Central, the prominent baseball analyst Clay Davenport estimates 85 wins will likely be enough to pocket the National League’s No. 3 wild-card passport.
That’s subject to change, of course. These teams have a lot of games to play between now and the final day of the regular season.
That said – as a thought exercise – what do the Cardinals need to land on an 85-win finish?
Answer: 35 and 32.
That seems as easy as a basic riverboat ride on the mighty Mississippi. But then again, you never know what might be lurking beneath the calm surface. It’s a little spooky out there.
Might be some drowning hitters, sunken relievers, lost gloves, and starting pitchers taken by the undertow. There could be the muddy drift and rising futility of lost runners in scoring position. There could be river ghosts – and the howling from the souls of forgotten players who were designated for assignment. There’s the wicked silt-cloud distraction of forceful trade winds.
There’s always the threat of deep-channel September pressure. Chaim Bloom is the Trader on the Shore, looking to make deals to buy or sell. Oli Marmol is the pilot of the ship and can’t let it get lost or sink.
Hell, let’s just say that Oli and Chaim are the Lewis and Clark of this Expedition. In this tale, Bill DeWitt III is Joseph LaBarge, a new captain, and the son of Joseph M. LaBarge the elder, a respected riverman and well known frontiersman, trapper, and fur trader. Meanwhile, over at Ballpark Village …
(Shut up already, Bernie! Enough with the metaphors!)
OK, back to business. Here’s a list of what it will likely take for the Cardinals to safely navigate their way to at least 85 victories. I’ll leave out the obvious stuff that applies to all 30 teams – like “avoid injuries.”
1. The bullpen must hold, or the levee will break. This group of relievers lacks quality depth, and have been smacked for MLB’s highest (as in worst) contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. The overall contact rate against them is second highest/worst. These Cards firemen rank 26th among 20 teams in strikeout rate, 20th in walk rate, and 29th in getting hitters to chase bait out of zone pitches.
2. Yes, Riley O’Brien was a 2026 All-Star. And me? I am a bad person. And because there is some sort of law that prohibits the media from discussing this openly, the nasty assignment falls to me. O’Brien has been better lately, but let’s not overstate it, OK? In 26 relief appearances since April 25, O’Brien has a 5.19 ERA and 4.45 fielding independent ERA. His strikeout rate over that time is a pallid 20% which ranks 131st among 181 innings-qualified relievers. And O’Brien’s walk rate (10.8%) since April 25 ranks 141st among the 181. In his last 26 appearances, opponents have connected on 89% percent of O’Brien’s pitches in the zone.
3. The St. Louis offense must score more runs at Busch Stadium. This has been a largely ignored – but serious – problem. The Cards are 26th among the 30 clubs in average runs scored per home game (3.75) and 2nd to the Dodgers with a road-scoring average of 5.53 runs per game. This matters because even though the Redbirds starting pitchers rank sixth in the majors with a home 3.67 ERA, the team is only 25-25 at Busch.
4. Cardinals starting pitching must endure through the end of the 162-game trail. This rotation isn’t flashy or powerful, but there’s nothing particularly egregious about a group that ranks fourth among NL rotations in ERA, fourth in quality starts, and fifth in fielding independent ERA.
The STL starters are as ground-ball forward as Ozzie Smith and do a strong job of preventing home runs. Plus, these fellas stay healthy – which in this day and age provides a competitive advantage. But that’s also a reason to be nervous. Will the stamina and stability remain firm? There isn’t much quality depth in support.
By the way: after a choppy first month, Cardinals starting pitchers have a 3.89 ERA and 3.68 FIP since the beginning of May. Among the 30 teams, the earned-run average over that time ranks ninth and the FIP is fourth. But go ahead, you busy national baseball pundits with all of those trade-deadlines to fill. Don’t mind the facts. Keep going absolutely bananas in portraying this rotation as on the verge of cataclysm. Just a note for ya: Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas don’t pitch here anymore, Andre Pallante is significantly better in 2026, and Sonny Gray had a 5.08 ERA after the All-Star break in 2025.
5. Get a lot more big-bam-boom from Ivan Herrera. I love that he ranks 7th among the 80 qualifying National League hitters with a .381 onbase percentage. I love that he’s more than willing to take a few bruises for the team; his hit-by-pitch total (24) leads the majors. But I don’t love that Herrera ranks 58th among NL hitters in slugging percentage (.390), 50th in isolated power, 52nd in doubles, and 43rd in home runs. His plague of ground balls is the problem. Herrera shouldn’t have fewer home runs than Nolan Arenado or JJ Wetherholt. Herrera’s offense at Busch Stadium this season is oddly vacant: .203 average, .321 OBP and .337 slugging percentage.
6. JJ Wetherholt must maintain his highly valuable three-phase performance. His offense, defense and baserunning are so important to this team, so I hope he won’t come down with a case of Rookie Season Fatigue. Plus, I’m a JJ fan and I want him to kick ass and leave no opening for some other candidate to sneak through for a chance to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.
7. Jordan Walker, Walk On: Keep going big man. Based on his tremendous production so far in 2026, Walker is projected to finish the regular season with 38 home runs, 126 RBIs and 22 stolen bases. Now, think about this for a second: if Walker pulls off that trifecta, he’ll stand alone among hitters in franchise history. Five Cardinals have checked the box for at least 38 homers and 126 RBIs in a season. Albert Pujols and Mark McGwire each did it in two seasons, and Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby and Johnny Mize had one such season. But none of the five great Cardinals I’ve mentioned here had more than 17 stolen bases to go along with the 38+ homers and 126+ RBIs. If Walker can put up prolific numbers over the final 67 games, he can make history. Oh, and getting it done would also help lift the Cards into the 2026 postseason.
8. Reinforce the bullpen. I’m more laid back about the trade deadline than many people are, but I’d like to see Bloom add muscle to the bullpen by getting a reliever that stays cool in high-leverage spots.
Here’s a stat for you: this season Justin Bruihl, Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson have a combined 42 “meltdowns” as categorized by FanGraphs. Bruihl has the most meltdowns by an NL reliever (12). That’s not all; Stanek (11) and Romero (11) are tied for the second-most meltdowns in the NL. And Matt Svanson’s eight meltdowns are tied for 11th most.
My goodness. That’s really awful. And a few more of these meltdowns could make the difference between making the playoffs and failing to get to the playoffs. One more meltdown note: Bruihl, Stanek, Romero and Svanson have as many meltdowns between them (42) than the entire bullpens of the Braves, Rays and Red Sox. And the entire Yankee and Mariner bullpens each have only one more meltdown (43) than the four St. Louis bullpen guys.
9. Lars Nootbaar, stay or go? Bloom requires no advice from me – and I don’t believe he’s seeking any. (Laughter.) But if teams that covet Nootbaar to play outfield for them and are really desirous to add a valuable left-handed swing to their lineup … Well, Bloom is in charge here. With not enough sellers and a shortage of LH bats on the market, Bloom can set a high price and demand it as the non-negotiable return. There isn’t a reason in this ever-loving baseball world to sell low on Nootbaar. A team that acquires Noot will have him for the remainder of this season (including the playoffs if applicable) and for the 2027 campaign.
The Cardinals’ lineup is more capable with Nootbaar in it. And keep this in mind: Nootbaar is the team’s best hitter at Busch Stadium this season. It’s a potato-chip size sample, but in 68 plate appearances Nootbaar has a .302/.441/.509 slash line. Per wRC+, Nootbaar has performed 15 percent above league average offensively at Busch. And he’s 28% above average offensively at home since the start of 2025.
10. The Highwaymen: The Cardinals are 24-19 on the road this season for a .558 winning percentage that ranks eighth-best in the majors. But they need to keep collecting wins on the road for two reasons (a) they have 38 road games remaining which is 57 percent of their schedule and (b) they’ve struggled to establish a home-field advantage at Busch.
11. Rediscover the one-run Redbird magic. In a delightful early-season pattern that was fun to watch, the Cardinals excelled at daredevil-style winning. I’m referring to games determined by a one-run margin. The Birds won 10 of their first 13 one-run outcomes (.769), and it was a big factor in their surprisingly successful launch to the 2026 season. But … history tells us that having such phenomenal results in one-run games is extremely difficult to sustain. And sure enough the Cards have only won 6 of their last 17 one-run decisions (.353.) Can they reverse the trend and fly back to their early-season ways? It sure would boost their chances.
12. The Cardinals must reverse a concerning trend. The youngest team in baseball is four games under .500 since May 20 and have won only 10 of their last 24 games. They have to shake it off and begin winning more consistently.
13. Is there a third baseman available in a trade? No offense to Blaze Jordan, Jose Fermin or the injured Ramon Urias – but Bloom might want to look into that. And please: no silly suggestions to play Wetherholt at third base. This ain’t Strat-o-Matic, OK? I should do a separate column on this.
14. Continue to do very well against good baseball teams. I’ve mentioned this a few times lately, so let’s revisit the subject because this is a significant factor. Going into the weekend, the Cardinals have 35 games remaining against teams that currently hold a winning record: Cubs (7), Pirates (6), Phillies (6), Diamondbacks (4), White Sox (3), Yankees (3), Dodgers (3) and Brewers (3). And by the time the Cardinals face Washington for three games in St. Louis, the Nationals (48-49 now) could have a winning ledger.
— I know the Cardinals were thumped by the Brewers in games played before the All-Star break, losing 8 of 10. But against all other teams they’ve played this season the Cardinals are 48-37 for a .565 winning percentage.
— The Redbirds are 29-28 overall against winning teams this season but that record is distorted by the poor showing against the Brewers. Against all other winning teams, the Cardinals were 27-20 before the break.
— The teams with the six best winning percentages in the majors at the break were the Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, Braves, Cubs and Yankees. (The Cardinals haven’t faced the Yanks but that’s happening with a three-game set at Yankee Stadium beginning Aug. 3). We’ve already covered the Brewers’ beatdown of the Cardinals. But against four of the top five teams they’ve played up until now – Dodgers, Rays, Braves and Cubs – the Redbirds were 12-6. And, even better, they won all six series played against the Dodgers, Rays, Braves and Cubs.
Milwaukee aside, the Cardinals have let it be known they can hang with any of the good teams in baseball. That’s a sweetener baked into the record (50-45) that ranks tied for 9th in the majors in winning percentage. There’s no reason to scoff at the Cardinals as a wild-card contender. Maybe later. But not now.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.