In today’s review, I’m focusing on four Baby Birds: rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt, rookie third baseman Blaze Jordan, pitching prospect Quinn Mathews, and outfield prospect Josh Baez, the young sultan of slug.
There’s a lot to like here – I suppose I’m stating the obvious – but it’s still fun and interesting for me to monitor trends, and report back to you. I know that some of you out there know a lot more about the prospects than I do, but as Tony La Russa would say – hey, I just want to put my piece in. I’ve presented some of this information in the recent past but wanted to add some updates.
BLAZE JORDAN: A week ago, he was arriving in the Twin Cities to begin his major-league career. Seven games into the biggest-ever change of his baseball life, how is the big’un rolling? Well, if you’ve watched Blaze play or checked the stats, you’ll know there are many reasons to smile.
In his first 27 plate appearances going into Friday, Jordan had a .308 average, .333 OBP, .577 slug and a .910 OPS. Using wRC+ as our standard, Jordan performed 50 percent above league average offensively. He hit for the cycle during his first week – four singles, two doubles, a triple and a home run. He clicked home five RBIs. He scored five runs. His hard-hit rate was a ridiculous 50 percent.
Here are a few of my favorite Blaze things from his opening tour in the show:
— Eye-opening bat-to-ball skills: yeah, I know this sample size is as large as a crumb on my laptop. But in week one Jordan had an 87% contact rate overall, and a preposterous 96.7% on pitches in the strike zone.
— Looks like he can play defense. In his first 52 innings at third base Jordan was credited with two Defensive Runs Saved which is equal to – or better – than a lot dudes who play the position including Bo Bichette, Manny Machado, Ryan McMahon, Max Muncy, Isaac Paredes, Brendan Donovan, Junior Caminero, Eugenio Suarez, Nolan Gorman, Royce Lewis, Brett Baty and Alec Bohm.
— Blaze doesn’t scare. Again, we’re talking about a sample that isn’t even as large as a miniscule piece of lint. But in the earliest days of his career, Jordan is 4 for 10 (.400) with runners in scoring position, and 2 for 3 in high-leverage at bats. Does he look overwhelmed to you? Blaze exudes confidence.
JOSH BAEZ: The update? He sent home-run No. 24 into space Thursday night. So now we wait and see how soon he can get to 30 on the season. Baez is big-footing through a monstrous June for Triple A Memphis:
22 hits in 58 at-bats, .379 average
8 homers, 5 doubles
22 RBIs, 3 on sac flies
.391 onbase pct
.879 slugging pct
1.279 OPS
.515 wOBA
.500 Isolated power rating
There are two other encouraging developments that warrant another look.
As advised by the Cardinals, Baez has slowly been shrinking his strikeout percentage, which is 25 percent so far in June. This matters because his punch-out rate was a higher and more troubling 32% during the first two months of the season.
I’ve told you several times how the Cardinals want to see Baez establish a much higher contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. And he’s making advances through his hard work and the desire to do a more reliable job of controlling the strike zone. So here’s what I have to show you:
— Contact rate on strikes, first two months: 73%. That’s at around 15 percent less than what the Cards want it to be.
— Contact rate on strikes for June: 82.1 percent. That’s approaching league-average ground. Baez hasn’t hit that particular bullseye just yet, but he’s closing the gap.
— As I wrote Thursday, the biggest deficiency is his 38 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. Trimming that percentage down to the low 30s (for now) is an important assignment for Baez on the “Must Do” checklist.
— The June numerals show us the value of Baez staying in the zone to do his hunting. This month, when Baez bludgeons a strike he’s 16 for 40 (.400) with a .975 slugging percentage, .564 wOBA, five doubles and six homers.
— A couple of more fun facts on the big guy’s joltin’ June: (1) despite an excessive whiff-swing rate because of the chases, Baez is 10 for 18 against sliders (.556) with two homers and three doubles. And (2) Baez has tattooed four-seam fastballs for a .500 average (8 for 16) with two doubles, four homers, a 1.375 slug and only two strikeouts.
QUINN MATHEWS: I know the deal. Mathews was overhyped in 2024. In 2025 he had some shoulder pain, was shut down, and couldn’t command his pitches when he returned. I’m not going to gloss over his high walk rate (16%). That’s got to come down. Too many walks is harmful to a pitcher’s ERA – and not good for his mental health. Matthews has landed only 41.8 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this year, and that puts him in the bottom two percent of minor-league pitchers.
That said, we must acknowledge something else about this: at the Triple A level this Mathews’ wildness also works to his advantage. Offerings of his four-best pitches – four-seam fastball, slider, changeup and curve – are deceptive. They slither. They move. Hitters can’t time him up. He makes their eyes spin.
Take the Mathews slider for example. This season Triple A hitters are chasing the slider out of the strike zone at a rate of 37 percent. And that aggressiveness has caused them to whiff-swing on the slider at a remarkably high 59%. And there are other tricky pitches like that. Mathews knows how to get soft contact.
Mathews has a 4.13 ERA this season but his fielding independent ERA is 4.90. But with a strike rate at 30 percent, Mathews wins a lot of the battles with the hitters. His pitch varieties are slick.
The lefty is sharpening up. In his last four starts, Mathews has permitted only four earned runs in 21 innings for a 1.71 ERA. He was harmed for only three extra-base hits over that time. His strikeout rate in the four starts was 35%. The walk rate, still high, was a slightly more reasonable 11 percent. At least there is some deflation. But look at what Mathews did to the hitters with his baffling assortment of pitches over his last four outings …
* Slider: 59.5% whiff rate, 48% strikeout rate, .048 batting average.
* Changeup: 42% whiff rate, 27.8% strikeout rate, .200 average.
* Curve: 30% whiff rate, 37.5% strikeout rate, .125 average.
* 4-seam fastball: 25% whiff swing, 30% strikeout rate, .136 average.
The four-seam doesn’t get as much whiff action because it isn’t a breaker, or an offspeed change of pace. Mathews has to be sharp at hitting the location target when he throws the fastball. And over the last four starts it’s the only pitch that got bruised, with a yield of two homers, a .409 slugging percentage and a 40% hard-hit rate. And none of this is really bad. As he evolves, Mathews is more than just a changeup specialist. There’s a lot of layers to his pitching.
I don’t know what the team’s plans are for the crestfallen starter Matthew Liberatore. But if the beatings continue, I have to think that Mathews will reach St. Louis this summer. Righty Hunter Dobbins is first in line to take a rotation spot, with the lefties Mathews and Brycen Mautz waiting for their turn. Quinn can help himself by becoming better acquainted with the strike zone. And I wonder if the ABS is an issue for Mathews.
JJ WETHERHOLT: It’s a joy to watch JJ play the sport he loves so much. He’s so good at baseball. He’s good at every part of baseball except for pitching – and he probably would be in a major-league rotation if he chose pitching over hitting.
Wetherholt reached base five times – three hits and two walks – in Thursday’s loss at KC. He keeps going and going and going.
Let’s update the tote board:
1) Wetherholt is tied with Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle for the MLB rookie lead in fWAR (3.1).
2) No other NL rookie is close to that 3.1 fWAR standard set by Wetherholt early in 2026.
3) Over the last century, only one rookie second baseman has managed to surpass the 6.0 fWAR threshold: Lou Klein of the Cardinals had 6.1 WAR in 1943. If Wetherholt maintains his current season pace and can clear 7.0 fWAR, he would establish a modern standard for rookie-season value for a second baseman.
4) If the projections hold, Wetherholt would finish with 6.96 fWAR if he plays 155 games, so that would put 7.0 fWAR within reach. If JJ plays 145 games, he’s on pace for 6.51 fWAR. Even if he falls short of 7.0 fWAR, Wetherholt would accomplish something remarkable by getting to 6.0 fWAR.
5) fWAR reflects a player’s value in all three phases: offense, defense and baserunning. Using the FanGraphs composite system, Wetherholt currently ranks 2nd among NL players in defense, 9th in running the bases, and 20th in offense. JJ’s strong all-around game explains why only three NL players are ahead of him in fWAR right now: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs), James Wood (Nationals) and Corbin Carroll (Dbacks.)
6) Among NL rookies, JJ has the top FanGraphs ranking in both offense and defense and is second in baserunning.
7) JJ also ranks in the top five among NL rookies in all of these categories: fWAR, batting average, wRC+, onbase percentage, slugging, OPS, wOBA, hits, stolen bases, hit by pitches, times on base, and Win Probability Added.
8) As of right now, Wetherholt would be the only St. Louis rookie during the expansion era (1961-present) to have this combination of stats:
– at least 10 homers and eight steals
– at least a 122 OPS+
– at least a .778 OPS
– at least a .369 on-base percentage
– at least a .408 slugging percentage
9. Wetherholt leads all MLB second basemen with 13 outs above average and he’s second with nine defensive runs saved. His 13 outs above average rank 3rd in the majors – at any position – to Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
10. Wetherholt is scorching as he heads into Friday’s game at Kansas City. Over his previous 15 games, he hit .379 with a .446 on-base percentage and .448 slug. That’s good for an .894 OPS.
BIG PICTURE: St. Louis rookie position players collectively lead the National League with 3.6 fWAR. And the only American League team with more rookie position-player fWAR are the White Sox with 5.0.
Thanks for reading …
Have the best weekend!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.