The Cardinals charged into the season with a vigorous display of offense in March-April. And the timing was pretty much perfect.
The St. Louis hitters overcame the considerable damage done to their own pitching staff by inflicting even more punishment on the other team’s throwers.
Well.
This hasn’t been the case so far in May. The Cardinals pitchers aren’t getting much run support, but they’ve done a terrific job of preventing runs, and that’s given them a chance to win some low-scoring games.
In other words, the Cards hitters supported the pitchers in the first month – and the pitchers are returning the favor in May.
In the team’s first 15 games in May, the Cardinals have scored three or fewer runs eight times and plated no more than two runs in seven games.
Despite the paucity of offense, the Cards still managed to snatch three wins in the first two-plus weeks of May when scoring four runs or less.
And that’s a big reason why the Cardinals are 9-6 in May instead of possibly being 6-9.
I think we were all concerned with the state of the STL pitching staff in March-April. But Redbird pitchers have cracked down on the other side.
March-April: runs allowed per game: 5.1 over 31 games.
In May: only 3.1 runs yielded per contest over 15 games. Outstanding.
I’ll get back to the Cards pitching in a bit. First, I want to show you the “before” and “after” picture of the St. Louis offense as divided by the month.
The March-April stats are on the left, and the May numbers are to the right.
– Runs scored per game: 5.1 … 3.1
– Slugging pct: .401 … .361
– On-base pct: .326 … .312
– combined OBP + slug: .727 … .673
– Homers per game: 1.32 … 0.67
– wRC+: 107 … 92
The wRC+ metric tells us the STL offense was seven percent above league average and tied for 7th among 30 teams in the opening March-April phase.
In May the wRC+ is eight percent below league average offensively, which ranks 18th. The Cards’ attack has declined by 15 percent (so far) in the second month of the season. And that isn’t minor.
From March-April to May, the slugging percentage has dropped by 40 points, the on-base rate has plummeted by 14 points, and the OPS has deflated by 54 points.
The shortage of power during the first 15 games of May was alarming.
After homering every 25.4 at-bats over the first 31 games of the season (March-April), the unplugged Cardinals have managed a home run every 50.4 at-bats in May. That’s a 49.6% drop in home-run efficiency. My goodness.
Jordan Walker has four of his team’s 10 homers in May. That’s 40 percent of the St. Louis total.
Walker flexed with a nine-homer splurge during the first month, but his total represented only 21.9% of the Cards’ 41 HR count.
As we can see, Walker could use some assistance. This month, Walker and Alec Burleson are the only two Cardinals that have (a) produced at least two homers and (b) a slugging percentage above 400.
The Cards pitchers had plenty of run support over the first 31 games, but they’re hungering for more in May. But this cast hasn’t weakened. The pitching staff has gotten stronger, holding the line and refusing to break. They’ve kept the Cardinals (9-6) on the winning side of the May ledger.
Early this season the Cardinals’ pitching group was a hindrance. Now it’s an asset. That really applies to the starting rotation, but the bullpen is also improving.
Let’s take a look at the changes in the Cards’ rankings among the 30 MLB teams over time …
First 16 games of 2026:
– 5.09 team ERA, ranked 28th
– 4.95 starter ERA, No. 25
– 5.26 bullpen ERA, No. 25
Last 30 games through Sunday:
– 3.60 team ERA, 8th
– 3.36 starter ERA, 5th
– 3.97 bullpen ERA, 20th
During 13-6 record since April 27:
3.05 team ERA, 6th
2.99 starter ERA, 5th
3.14 bullpen ERA, 12th
First 15 games in May:
– 2.79 staff ERA, 5th
– 2.80 starter ERA, 4th
– 2.77 bullpen ERA, 9th
Is there a particular reason why the locals continue to ignore – or at least underplay – such substantial improvement?
Yeah, I’m aware of the underlying metrics. Boo! Scary! Better scramble and hide! But I don’t give a damn about “expected” runs allowed when I can tally the actual runs allowed and see a positive result.
Yes indeed, underlying metrics are predictive. Which is good to keep in mind … which I do. And if the underlying metrics eventually blow the wrong way and dynamite this staff’s ERA, then I will be sure to write about that.
But what’s the point of shrieking “The Sky Is Falling!” when these dudes are pitching well? Real thunderstorms are rumbling outside my home-office window, but the sky ain’t succumbing to gravity. If the sky actually starts falling, then I’ll make highly agitated clucking sounds that will wake my neighbors.
Over the last 30 games the Cardinals have allowed four runs or fewer 21 times, tied for fourth most over that time. They are 14-7 in those games despite the power drop and decrease in runs over by the offense.
And how about this? In May, no MLB pitching staff has been nicked four runs or less in a game more frequently than St. Louis. The Cardinals pitchers have done that 13 times in their 15 games.
Here’s the May leaderboard for most games of conceding no more than four runs in a May game.
Cardinals 13
Braves 12
Red Sox 12
Brewers 12
Phillies 12
The St. Louis record in the 13 contests (9-4) would be better with a more generous supply of runs from the Cards offense.
How about more fun with numbers? OK, you got it.
Going into the new week, Cardinals’ SP Michael McGreevy and Dustin May had more quality starts than Paul Skenes (5), Jacob Misiorowski (4), Dylan Cease (4), Edward Cabrera (4), Jacob deGrom (3), Sonny Gray (3), Freddy Peralta (3) and Ranger Suarez (3).
The Cards and their fans hope the upward trajectory keeps going in the current direction for the pitchers.
That said, the Cardinals have to start scoring more runs because I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect St. Louis to remain this stingy in run prevention.
BIRD BYTES
1) JJ Wetherholt in his first 14 May games: 10 for 55 (.182) with a .308 OBP and .236 slug for a .544 OPS. Wetherholt’s wRC+ (59) is the worst among Cardinal regulars so far this month and is 41 percent below league average offensively. Smart man, mature, composed, confident … he’ll make the adjustments and we’ll see it soon.
2) The Cards’ collection of left-handed hitters have been on the quiet side in May, collectively generating an 83 wRC+ that’s 17 percent below league average offensively (24th). That group was three percent above average during the first month; that ranked 15th in the majors. And after slugging .400 in March-April (14th), the left-side hitters were slugging only .336 (26th) in May.
3) Cardinals catching prospect Jimmy Crooks is doing what the Cards wanted him to do down at Triple A Memphis: reduce the strikeouts. He had a 34.4% strikeout rate in the season’s first month, but that's down (23.4%) in May. Crooks is having himself quite the month with 5 HRs, a .468 OBP and .771 slug.
4) Crooks, who bats left, has roughed up right-handed pitchers all season. But he’s been especially destructive in May. Check out these numbers in his 30 plate appearances (and 25 at-bats) so far in May:
.348 average
.500 on-base pct
.913 slug
.565 ISO
70.6% hard-hit rate
29.4% barrel rate
20% strikeout rate
23% walk rate
Four of Jimmy’s eight hits against off righties this month have flown for home runs.
5. Cards outfield prospect Josh Baez had a 37.2% strikeout rate in the first month and has cut that (to 33.3%) so far in May. Power is there. Walks are not there. The big man still has a lot of work to do.
6. Quickie updated note on Jordan Walker: He went into Monday’s scheduled off day with the best OPS+ (171) among National League players. Walker is 71 percent above league average offensively this season after being 31% below league average across his previous two seasons.
7. Walker: Yeah, what a difference a season makes. In 2025, Walker was offered eight different varieties of pitches by opponents. Of the eight, he had a negative run value on six of the pitches. This season he’s been thrown eight different types of pitches at least 19 times – and has a positive run value on all eight. That explains why Walker was in the bottom six percent of all major league hitters in Batting Run Value – and is in the top three percent of all MLB hitters in Batting Run Value in 2026.
I’ll sign off now …
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.