Our friend Matt Snyder of the CBS Sports site had this to say about your St. Louis Cardinals while posting his updated MLB power rankings at the start of the week.
“The Cardinals are working awfully hard to prove the doubters (I'm in that group) wrong this season,” he wrote.
Matt, I think the size of that particular group was enormously large before the season. I’m standing with The Doubters, somewhere in the immense crowd.
I did think the 2026 Cardinals would be a respectable team, capable of surpassing the most prevalent win projections. My ballpark estimate was 78 to 81 victories.
I did not, however, expect to sit here on May 5, reaffirming that the Redbirds’ record is indeed 21-14, and doing another check to make sure they currently possess the fifth-best winning percentage (.600) in the majors.
I did not, however, see them on a pace for 97 wins. Before the launch of the 2026 campaign, if you would have asked 100 Cardinals fans on “X” to choose between 97 predicted wins or 97 predicted losses … I’m guessing the voting would be dominated by the nays.
“Of course you hopeless imbecile sportswriter, this pathetic, stripped down and underfinanced rebuilding ‘major-league’ team will lose even more than 97. Fire Marmol! Sell the team! We deserve better!”
Anyway … although The Athletic continues to virtually ignore the Cardinals in their baseball coverage – you see, it is very important to have 25,000 stories on the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Cubs each week – other national media outlets are taking notice. There was even a surprise filing by The Athletic senior baseball writer Ken Rosenthal which I will share here in a bit.
In the new power rankings, the Cardinals were 10th at The Athletic (was that a typo?), 9th at the official MLB site, 7th at CBS, and 6th at FanGraphs. ESPN baseball analyst David Schoenfield gave the Cardinals a grade of A minus for their first month, and Bob Nightengale (USA Today) cited Oli Marmol as MLB’s best manager in the early weeks of the season.
“St. Louis has been better than expected, with some compelling things: Jordan Walker might finally be having that breakout season after being a nonfactor the past two seasons; rookie JJ Wetherholt is living up to his prospect hype and looks like a future star; and Ivan Herrera is turning into an on-base savant between all the walks and hit by pitches,” Schoenfield wrote. “Are the Cardinals legit contenders? They're coming off a hot week, but their pitchers are last in strikeout rate and it's almost impossible to make the playoffs doing that. Last year, the bottom nine teams in pitcher strikeout rate all missed the playoffs.”
Rosenthal was at Busch Stadium for Saturday’s Dodgers-Cardinals game carried by Fox. And three days later he offered observations in his notebook column for The Athletic.
“Young players sometimes tread lightly around veterans, reluctant to express themselves,” Rosenthal wrote. “The St. Louis Cardinals, by trading third baseman Nolan Arenado, first baseman Willson Contreras and right-hander Sonny Gray during the offseason, effectively liberated their youngsters, allowing a new culture to form.”
Rosenthal said Brendan Donovan would have been a good fit in this new culture, but Cards president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom couldn’t resist the package of prospects and draft picks offered for Donovan by Seattle and Tampa Bay. The Rays were the third team in the transaction.
Rosenthal continued: “With Donovan gone, shortstop Masyn Winn, first baseman Alec Burleson and backup catcher Pedro Pagés are emerging as leaders for the position players, left-hander Matthew Liberatore for the pitchers. In recent years, St. Louis previously was a place where a number of young players failed, only to succeed somewhere else. Bloom is trying to reclaim the Cardinals’ identity as an organization built on young talent.”
Looking ahead, Rosenthal delivered a realistic assessment.
“Encouraging as the Cardinals’ position-player group looks, both offensively and defensively, it’s difficult to imagine the team sustaining its 21-14 start with a pitching staff that ranks last in the majors in strikeout rate,” he wrote. “But, if at the deadline the Cardinals are within range of a playoff spot, they likely will adjust their rebuilding plan without abandoning it.
“In other words, they could act as modest buyers, fortifying their pitching staff while remaining committed to their young talent. It’s a difficult balance to strike, but Bloom is operating with a clear direction — unlike in Boston, where he initially was tasked with restocking the farm system, only to have the success of the 2021 team heighten expectations for fans and ownership.”
That deadline approach makes sense, which is why I’ve offered some opinions on that over the last couple of weeks.
It’s always good to see Rosenthal write about the Cardinals. And yes, I’m being sincere.
BIRD BYTES
1. The Cardinals’ starting pitching has shown some improvement. Of course, the strikeout and swing-miss shortages are extreme, and that’s an obvious concern. But since April 18 the Cards starters have collectively pitched to a 3.65 ERA that ranks No. 8 in the majors over that time. They also rank tied for sixth during this stretch with six quality starts. And since April 18, the STL starters rank sixth in the majors for Win Probability Added.
2. The underlying metrics are a problem and it’s highly unlikely we’ll see a significant upturn in strikeout volume or swing-miss frequency from the starting five of Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante. And so the vulnerability will be there. That’s why the starters’ expected ERA of 4.54 since April 18 is 22nd in MLB.
3. And that’s why this rotation will rely on a top-five defense for protection. There is no choice, because the ball will be in play. It will be in play more often than we see against any other team. According to Sports Info Solutions, Cardinal starters are allowing the highest overall contact rate (82.3%) and contact rate on strikes (91.2%) in the bigs this season.
4. Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake was our guest Tuesday on KMOX, joining Marmol on the “Gashouse Gang” show. After I asked him a question about the troubling underlying metrics, Blake explained the challenge of getting the most out of the team’s starters without depending on strikeouts and a high whiff-swing percentage. Blake gave an extensive, thoughtful and candid answer.
“The biggest thing is, we've got to lean into what they're great at,” he said of his starting pitchers. “We've got to continue to help them do smaller things that give them a chance to control maybe more of their outcomes over time based on their strategy.
“But yeah, there's clear, analytic, implicit – however you want to say it, strategy. And if the guys don't put the ball in play and you punch (hitters) out, it's a lot easier to keep the bases clean than if you have to rely on the ball in play.”
5. Blake’s bottom line? Can’t force the issue. Can’t obsess over strikeouts. A starting pitcher has to do what he does well – and try to make it even better. And under the circumstances, playing to the St. Louis defense makes the most sense. Especially for a rotation that induces the seventh-highest ground-ball rate in the majors.
“I think what our org and some of our guys have done really well … is letting the defense play a little bit,” Blake said. “I think we had seven double plays that we were able to turn on Saturday and Sunday combined (against the Dodgers.) And when you are on the ground a lot, that is one of the benefits.
“Yeah, sometimes on average, seven out of ten of those ground balls are gonna be out. But when one gets through and you can manage the running game, which is also something (that helps) … if you're gonna be a savvy pitcher on the mound, we can't give away anything from the running game standpoint. But if we control that, then we're gonna keep that guy at first base.
“And when the next one is (hit) at somebody, we've got a chance to get two outs now. So there are some things like that that can still be beneficial.”
6. Double plays? The Cards defense ranks 2nd in MLB for average double plays per game. Catcher Pedro Pages who, according to Statcast has one of the best arms among major-league catchers – is effective at policing the run game. These attributes really matter on a staff that lacks strikeout voltage.
“If you think about it,” Blake said, “there is the debate. Be more analytical, go out there and compete, which one do we want? We want both. Do you want a healthy brain or a healthy heart? Well, we want both. So we wanna continue to evolve from a stuff standpoint, from a velocity standpoint.
“But we can't discount the execution, and we can't discount the things that really give our guys a chance right now to be successful. And sometimes, based on the skill set and the capacity, it may be attacking those weak contact areas a little bit more than chasing the punch out.”
7. Former Cardinals relievers Ryan Helsley (Orioles) and Steven Matz (Rays) are each on the IL with “elbow inflammation.” (Though Matz is a starting pitcher for the Rays.) But 2026 has been a year swirling with closer chaos. Closers who are sidelined or otherwise dealing with injury-related challenges include Josh Hader (Astros), Raisel Iglesias (Braves), Pete Fairbanks (Marlins), Edwin Diaz (Dodgers), Kenley Jansen (Tigers), Kirby Yates (Angels) and Carlos Esteves (Royals). Cubs closer Daniel Palencia recently dodged a more serious injury when oblique tightness turned out to be more minor than major. And then there are the closers that are getting slapped around enough to cause concern; that list would include the Reds’ Emilio Pagan. Brewers closer Trevor Megill was moved to a setup role after getting knocked about for a 14.40 ERA in his first six appearances.
So why am I sharing all of this information? Answer: the Cardinals must be careful with their closer Riley O’Brien. If O’Brien stays healthy and effective, he could be a highly coveted trade piece at the deal-making deadline, and Bloom could cash in for a generous return of prospects. An injury could be terrible for O’Brien – and also the Cardinals. Through Monday, O’Brien ranked tied for 34th for most innings pitched by a big-league reliever this season. And while his 17 appearances are tied for the eighth most among relievers, there’s nothing alarming about it.
8. Remember the name Tai Peete. He’s off to an impressive start this season. The outfield prospect, a top athlete, was acquired by the Cardinals in the Brendan Donovan exchange. He put up these numbers in his first 22 games for Class High A Peoria:
— .286 average .358 OBP, .561 slug
— .919 OPS, 128 wRC+
— 4 homers, 9 doubles, 3 triples
— 20 RBIs, 18 runs, 4 steals.
His wRC+ means that Peete is 28 percent above league average offensively. That represents major progress from his first High A experience in Seattle’s system last year, when Peete performed 21 percent below league average.
Over his last 15 games, Peete has a .329 average with 12 extra-base hits including four HRs. The highlight was Peete hitting for the cycle against Wisconsin on April 16.
Strikeouts are still an issue for a prodigy who won’t turn 21 until August. But Peete has a 10% walk rate to accompany his 31% strikeout rate. And he is making better contact.
Peete, who stands 6-2, has started 12 games in center for Peoria. He’s also gotten four starts in left field, and three in right. Peete played 71 games at shortstop for Seattle’s Low A affiliate in 2024, but the Cardinals have kept him busy (exclusively) in the outfield.
This is a high-ceiling prospect who is moving up. In his updated ratings, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel just moved Peete into the Cardinals’ Top 10 prospects list at No. 8.
9. Final note on Cards starting pitchers: one way they’re limiting damage is by being stingy when taking on hitters who come up with runners in scoring position. For the season, opponents have a .223 average and .640 OPS in RISP scenarios.
10. Remember when Marmol rested Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker for the final game in the Miami series back on April 22? Marmol made a smart call because Walker was dragging with fatigue, Burleson had a tight calf muscle, and Winn’s back was creaking a bit. The Cardinals were about to begin a stretch of playing 17 games in 17 days – and 20 games in 21 days.
With the Cardinals having a scheduled day off on April 23, Marmol obviously made the right choice to be cautious with the three players by getting each of the fellows two straight days off in exchange for missing one game.
Of course, judging by the instant, vehemently insane and gloriously unhinged reaction among the “X” intelligentsia that day, Marmol was forfeiting the season, needed to be fired on the spot, and the Cardinals were doomed because they proceeded lose that game … which was only their 22nd game of the season.
The overreaction by these people was bat-dung crazy. But hey, I understand in a way. Part of the purpose for their existence is to scream for Marmol’s firing every other minute, so his lineup decision that day was a gift from the baseball devils. These highly aroused folks were ecstatic. Marmol made their day.
Footnote? Since the three hitters got that needed break and returned to the lineup – fresher and healthier – they’ve combined for a .305 average, 27 RBIs and 20 runs scored over the last 11 games.
And over the 11 games the Cardinal offense averaged 5.5 runs, and hit .272 with an .807 OPS and smashed 39 extra-base hits while winning seven of 11 contests through Monday. That includes a 7-1 record in their last eight.
So I guess a little extra rest for players who absolutely needed it worked out just fine. Imagine that: a manager showing his players respect and concern instead of treating them like common barnyard animals.
Thanks for reading and please don’t hate me for my typos.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.