OK, I want to talk about Victor Scott II and just to be cheesy, I’m going with a metaphor. We all know that Scott is fast, fast, fast. He ranks fifth among MLB runners for top sprint speed.
I was going to refer to Scott as a comet, but then I realized comets don’t last. So what can I use – something in the extraordinary galaxy out there – to link Scott to an exciting presence that stands out and endures?
What is he? I mean, other than the starting center fielder for your St. Louis Cardinals?
Here are your two choices, and forgive me if I take some liberties with these definitions. I am not an astrologer, even if I am qualified to be an astrologer on the “X” platform … because on X you can be whatever you pose to be, and you are an expert on everything.
So I’m now an astrologer.
1. The Comet: A small Solar System body composed primarily of volatile ices mixed with dust and rocky material. While they look like permanent fixtures when we see them in the sky, they are actually dynamic, fragile objects that only ‘wake up’ when they get close to a heat source. Every time a comet passes the sun, it loses a significant amount of its mass through sublimation. Eventually, it either fades out into a dormant rocky shell (looking like an asteroid) or disintegrates entirely. They spend most of their lives in the dark, frozen outer reaches of the galaxy, only becoming visible and "fast" (relative to us) for a tiny fraction of their existence before they retreat back into the shadows.
(Damn. That’s harsh.)
Conclusion, relative to Victor Scott: comets are the "sprinters" that burn through their fuel (ice) to put on a brief but majestic show.
2. The Pulsar. The cosmic metronome. The pulsar is a highly magnetized, rotating neutron star that emits beams of electromagnetic radiation. They spin at incredible speeds—some hundreds of times per second—but they are among the most stable and enduring "clocks" in the universe.
Conclusion, relative to Victor Scott: The Pulsar represents precision speed. Unlike a comet that flares and fades, a pulsar is relentless, rhythmic, and permanent. It’s speed that doesn't burn out; it just keeps ticking at a frequency others can set their watches by.
I didn’t see anything in there about hard-hit rate, batting average, soft contact, etc. But I’ll make do.
I have to say that Victor Scott II is more of a comet than a pulsar these days. He had significant flash for a while, and his legs traveled at a high rate of speed. But as a traditional offensive presence, Scott continues to dwindle and slowly disappear.
I say that without malice. I’m not trying to be a jerk here. I am a Victor Scott fan – heck, I even purchased one of his signature-line ball caps that I’ve worn doing videos here – and I would love to see him do fantastic things while wearing a Cardinal uniform for a long time.
Here’s the thing, though. I’m just a lowly sportswriter. I’m not a batting coach – well, unless I’m “X” and then I qualify as a hitting instructor. I can’t do a daggum thing to increase his batting average, produce more line drives and doubles in the gap, or get on base at a much higher rate and position himself to steal more bases. I am powerless to change any of these things.
All I can do is watch a lot of ball, observe, make notes, and see if the data matches what I’m seeing. I follow the numbers, even when I really don’t need to.
And frankly it’s a bad-looking pile of stats. There’s a couple of weird things in there, like Scott’s small-sample .350 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Which makes no sense because Victor bats from the left side. Just as crazy is Scott’s .122 batting average and 33 percent strikeout rate versus right-handers.
Let’s inspect that unsightly heap of troubling statistics.
The basics: 72 plate appearances, 61 at-bats, .197 average, .254 on-base rate, .213 slugging percentage, .467 OPS, and an adjusted OPS that’s 63 percent below league average offensively. He has one extra-base hit, a double, this season.
The ominous trend: In April, Scott is 5 for 45 (.111) with a sickly .307 OPS. In his last 15 games Scott is 3 for 32 (.094) with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate.
Where’s the run game? Scott has tried to steal three bases this month, only to be thrown out twice. In fact, his stolen-base scorecard – three steals in five tries, 60% – represents a steep decline from his 88.6% success rate over his first two seasons, when he swiped 39 bags in 44 attempts. A low walk rate means fewer ways for Scott to get to first base and take off on a mission to steal.
Bunts and infield hits: Scott has 12 total hits in 61 at-bats this season for a .197 average. Two of the hits were finessed by bunts, and four others went into the books as infield hits. That’s good. But …
Upon further review: If we strip away the bunt singles and speed-generated infield hits, Scott has only six hits that cleanly reached the outfield. That’s 6 in 61 at-bats for an adjusted batting average of .098. I think it’s a plus to have Scott use his elite speed to leg out hits and reach base. But goodness gracious, he’s in the major leagues. And it’s hardly unreasonable to expect a big-league hitter to step to the plate and rip some line-drive singles, or hot-smash doubles down the line. In his hits count, Scott has relied on his legs for 50% of his total offensive output.
Power shortage: Going back to last season, Scott hasn’t homered in 222 at-bats. For his MLB career, he hits a home run every 86.3 at-bats. On average, Scott lofts 1.01 homers per 100 at-bats as a big leaguer. Just as unfortunate is his average of 4.78 extra-base hits per 100 MLB plate appearances. The speedster Vince Coleman – a Cardinals Hall of Famer – wasn’t much better as a power source, but Vince supplied enough offense in other ways to make up for it.
The ground game isn’t working: Scott has a 66.7 percent ground ball rate, a figure that depletes any shot at power. This is intentional because Scott wants to slap the ball on the ground and outrun throws to first base for infield singles. But that just doesn’t happen enough to justify the one-dimensional approach. His SLGCON rate – slugging on contact – is .310 this season, which puts him in the 5th percentile. The league average/median is between .470 and .490. Too many grounders from Scott. Harmless grounders.
Weak contact, big problem: Scott’s 18.8 percent hard-hit rate is in the 2nd percentile. (Virtually “inches” from the bottom.) His average exit velocity (85.6 mph) resides in the 9th percentile. (Bad). He hasn’t barreled a single pitch this season.
Because they have no fear of his power, outfielders can play Scott shallow, and he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to hit the ball over their heads. And each of his six singles that reached the outfield were classified as ground balls, soft flares, or bloopers by Statcast. But Scott is 0 for 9 this year when hitting a defined line drive. (Per Statcast.)
This means the other team can use a collapsing zone defense, making it more difficult for him to find the outfield grass with balls he hits into the air. Scott does have those six “outfield” hits on line drives, but that’s about it. He’s batting .000 when he hits a fly ball. He has a poor launch-angle on airborne batted balls, and that leads to those easy “can of corn” fly balls that outfielders eat up with complete ease.
To have only six hits reach the outfield in 72 plate appearances tells us all that we really know about Scott’s flaws this season. The batted ball is stopped on the infield dirt or flagged down in the shallowest parts of the outfield grass. His batting average on contact (aka BACON) is .261 which is around 70 points below league average.
And even if we give Scott full credit for his four infield hits and exclude his two bunt singles, he has just 10 “swung-at” hits in 61 at-bats for a .164 average. And the slugging percentage is all but subterranean.
Poor plate discipline for a singles hitter: It isn’t unusual when a slugger who tries to hit for power also runs up a larger strikeout rate; that’s the “tax” on home runs. But Scott isn’t trying to blast homers. So why does he have a 31.9% whiff-swing rate that’s on the 19th percentile? (Bad.) Why is his strikeout rate 26.4% and in the 28th percentile? (Also bad.) Luis Arraez (Padres) doesn’t shoot for home runs. And Arraez has a whiff-swing rate of only 8.2% and a strikeout rate of 4.1%.
What about defense? Scott has been credited with two Outs Above Average in center field. Last season he was a +17 in OAA, and he possibly could get there again. But Scott is neutral (as in zero) in defensive runs saved this season. And his arm is a problem. Via Statcast, Scott’s average throw is 81.4 mph – which puts him in the 3rd percentile. Opponents have had 41 opportunities to advance this season, but have been somewhat cautious in trying to grab an extra base. That said, 18 runners have advanced safely on Scott’s arm; none were thrown out.
Put all of this together and it’s easy to understand why Scott is below the replacement level at minus 0.3 WAR.
How should the Cardinals handle their outfield? Well, Jordan Walker is in right field. Other than that, we can make a strong case for Nathan Church to get a lot more starts in center field, but if he vacates left field, that means more of Thomas Saggese or Jose Fermin in left. However: it also means they’ll get more playing time … which is healthy … and if Church slides over to center on a frequent basis, the only outfielder to lose playing time would be Victor Scott.
Church’s defense is neutral – not positive or negative. Just average. But he hasn’t played all that much in center this season, so it’s difficult to judge him there defensively. But Church was a “plus” center fielder in the minors. And he’s more comfortable in center than he is in left field.
Church has been coming on offensively. His OPS+ is on an upward track, and as I write this he’s just 10 percent below league average offensively. He was much worse than that earlier in the season.
What’s changing? Well, in his 12 games since April 7, Church has produced a batting line that looks really good, with a .345 average, .412 OBP, .586 slug and a .998 OPS. In 29 at-bats over that time he has two homers, a double, six RBIs, six runs scored and three steals.
Since April 7, here’s where Church ranks among Cardinals that have at least 30 plate appearances during this stretch:
* 1st in wRC+ at 77 percent above league average offensively.
* 1st in batting average, 1st in OPS, 2nd in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in Isolated Power.
* 1st in wOBA (.432.) That’s weighted onbase average, which puts more value on extra-base hits in the accounting.
* Tied for 1st with three steals in three attempts.
* Tied for 3rd with two homers.
* 2nd in Win Probability Added.
* Church also has an improved hard-hit rate (43.3%) over his last 12 games.
* He’s 3rd in WAR (0.5) since April 7, behind only Masyn Winn (0.8) and Jordan Walker (0.6) over that time. Scott has the team’s worst WAR (minus 0.3) over the same period of time. And WAR encompasses offense, defense and base running.
* In his last 12 games, Church has as many non-bunts for base hits (10), as Scott has put up in 24 games.
* For the entire season, Church has a SLGCON – slugging on contact – of .526, which is a massive edge over Scott’s .310.
These are small samples – but especially where Church is concerned. That said, these samples may be small, but they are excellent. Forget about what I say; Church is making his own case for more playing time.
Thanks for reading and please pardon my typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.