Howdy, yo, wassup, g’day, hallo, dzień dobry.
I’ve approached the laptop today with a purpose: to yap about JJ Wetherholt, the starting second baseman and leadoff man for your 2026 St. Louis Cardinals.
As I write this, on Tuesday afternoon, the rookie is about to play in his 23rd game in the big leagues. I swear what I’m about to say is true: when I watch Wetherholt play, I don’t see a rookie.
I mean, yeah, I know he’s a rookie. But he doesn’t look like one, play like one, act like one, or vibe like one, carry himself like one.
There is nothing immature about him, including his all-around game, his demeanor, his body language, his confidence, or his advanced baseball brainpower.
Wetherholt is a rookie leadoff hitter who goes about his business like an old pro, calmly and methodically operating from the top space on manager Oli Marmol’s lineup card as if he’d been there for as long as, say, Lou Brock was back in the day.
And if you didn’t know who this man was, you’d assume he’d been in the majors, leading off, for about six or seven years.
Accordingly, I asked Marmol this question Tuesday during his regular weekly guest spot on KMOX.
Do you even think of him as a rookie anymore because he's so on top of things?
“Um, no, I don't,” Marmol said. “In the sense of when he's between the lines, man, he does so many things well, and when you talk about having a true leadoff (man), that's what he has shown up to this point.
“Like, the dude understands the strike zone. He can use the whole field. He can hit for some power. He can take his singles. Like, he's going to get on base, and that's what you're looking for to start a game. So, he's done a really nice job.
“So, from that standpoint, no, but I think when you talk to him, he's so hungry for what's next that it's just awesome to start to dream on what's possible for him three, five years down the road, you know?
“His mentality is incredible. His steadiness and overall demeanor. Like, these are the things you look for in a young player, and he does it at such a high level that you forget this is year one for him. The maturity level is through the roof.”
That’s what I’m talking about.
As a first-time No. 1 hitter in the show, Wetherholt is performing so admirably that you’ll see his name above other notable and established leadoff men that have been at this for a while.
Wetherholt’s 122 wRC+ when batting leadoff – that’s 22 percent better than league average offensively – puts him above these MLB colleagues.
Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna Jr., Francisco Lindor, Ketel Marte, Steven Kwan, George Springer, Maikel Garcia, Oneil Cruz and Roman Anthony.
On the list of leadoff men who had at least 50 plate appearances on the top line of the card this season, here’s where JJ was perched through Monday’s action. And keep in mind that these are leadoff-specific numbers:
– 10th in on-base percentage, .384
– Tied for 6th with three homers.
– 3rd with 17 runs scored.
– 11th with 11 RBIs
– 5th with 14 walks
– 1st with six hit-by-pitches
– 5th for most times (38) reaching base.
– Tied for 1st with four stolen bases.
– Tied for 1st with two sac flies.
– 14th with his 122 wRC+
– 16th with a .747 OPS.
Wetherholt is also 12th in the NL among all hitters with an average of 4.24 pitches per plate appearances. But that figure is even better (2nd) among NL hitters that have a minimum 100 plate appearances.
The stubbornly persistent Wetherholt has made opponents throw nearly 400 pitches to him this season. I like this stat: when Wetherholt goes against the opposing starting pitcher for his first at-bat in the game, he makes him work and coaxes walks and posts a ridiculous .476 on-base percentage. When the same pitcher takes on Wetherholt for the second time in the contest, Wetherholt moves in for the knockdown, slugging .588. He’s the young man with a plan.
All of this represents classic traits for a leadoff man. The best ones give their team a fat on-base percentage, a dose of power, situational hitting, small-ball skill, the patience to tire enemy pitchers, and enough acceleration to steal bases.
It appears that this 23-year old is already providing a sketch of what a leadoff hitter should be, and what a leadoff hitter should do. He has the necessary pieces in his toolbox, and he knows how to use them.
Wetherholt’s walk rate is an outstanding 14 percent, and he’s willing to offer up a body part to take a pitch off the foot, the leg, maybe the back side … anything within the rules to get on base.
JJ doesn’t get himself out much – not because of stupid or otherwise bad habits at the plate. His strikeout rate is a low 18.8%. He doesn’t go chasing after stray pitches out of the strike zone. (Chase rate: a low 21%). When he swings at a ball in the strike zone, he connects at a rate of 79.5 percent. The efficiency – for a fella this young and inexperienced – is a model of cool.
I know Wetherholt’s batting average is an unsightly .228. A lot of that is an unlucky .259 batting average on balls in play. His slugging percentage hasn’t popped yet, but that time will come.
Guess which Cardinal has milked at-bats and faced the most 3-2 counts this season? Wetherholt. Of course.
Which Cardinal is savvy at salvaging at-bats? Who has the highest batting average on 0-2 pitches? That would be Wetherholt, at .333.
Wetherholt’s range and acumen on defense looks really good on the field - and absolutely terrific on the spreadsheet. His Statcast Fielding Value Rating puts JJ in the 97th percentile – meaning that he’s better defensively than 97 percent of all MLB players. That includes all positions.
If Wetherholt plays 145 games this season, his strong and diverse all-around play puts him on pace for 5.3 WAR (the FanGraphs version.) It’s too early to talk about “pace” – please forgive me – but if JJ can build up 5.3 WAR, it would be the most by a Cardinal in a rookie season since Albert Pujols generated 7.2 WAR in 2001.
Again, I know this type of look-ahead speculation is premature. I can’t help it. Wetherholt is such a superb talent, it’s only natural to wonder about something: how far can he go?
Before I finish this bolt of Wetherholt, I wanted to offer some examples of the impact he has on the Cardinals from the leadoff branch. All of these facts were put in place through Monday’s game.
Reaching Base
+ When Wetherholt reached base at least one time in a game, the Cardinals were 13-7.
+ When he reached base two or more times in a game, the Cardinals were 8-4.
+ When he reached base exactly twice in a game, the Cardinals were 5-2 and averaged 5.6 runs.
+ When he reached base exactly three times in a contest, the Cards were 3-1 and averaged 6.75 runs per game.
+ Going into Tuesday, Wetherholt failed to reach base only twice in 22 games.
Scoring Runs
+ The Redbirds were 7-3 when Wetherholt scored exactly one run and averaged 5.4 runs in the 10 games.
+ When JJ scored exactly two or three runs in the game, the Cards went 3-0 and averaged 6.5 runs.
+ When JJ didn’t score a run the Cardinals were 3-6 and averaged 3.8 runs.
Base Hits
+ When Wetherholt cranked at least one hit in a game the Cardinals had a 10-5 record and average 6.1 runs.
+ With no hits from JJ, the Cards went 3-4 and averaged just 3.1 runs.
Runs Batted In
+ When Wetherholt knocked in at least one run in a game, the Cardinals were 6-0 and averaged 6.6 runs.
+ When he didn’t drive in a run, the Cardinals were 7-9 and averaged 4.1 runs.
Miscellaneous
+ When JJ had at least one walk in a game, the Cardinals were 6-4 and averaged 5.8 runs.
+ When JJ had a combination of reaching base at least one time and scoring at least one run in the same game, the Cardinals had a 10-3 record and averaged 5.1 runs.
+ When he had the combination of reaching base, scoring a run, and plating an RBI in the same game, the Cards were 4-0 and averaged 7.0 runs.
+ Through Monday the Cardinals had scored 106 runs this season. Wetherholt was directly involved in 26.4 percent of that run production – either by scoring a run or driving one in. The only Redbird with a higher rate in this category is Jordan Walker with a 33 percent share of the runs scored by his team.
Thanks for reading and please pardon my typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.