THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals have lost three consecutive games to level off to 8-8 on the season. The Guardians and the Red Sox came to town to remind the locals that the rebuilding can be frustrating. This isn’t like that upbeat and snappy PBS show, “This Old House.”
Chaim Bloom’s fixer-upper job will take some time, and PBS won’t be there to film it. Maybe Ken Burns, but he’s a Boston fan who all but ignored Stan Musial in his epic, 11-part documentary series, “Baseball.”
As for the last three games and the home team’s totals for runs scored and runs ceded, the scoreboard looks like the outcome of a football game:
Red Guardian Sox 25, Cardinals 7.
We move on, with a look at some of the ongoing problems that have surfaced in the campaign:
Big Problem: Cardinals starting pitchers have been a disaster this season when going through the opponent’s lineup for the second and third times in a game. I’m not exaggerating. Here’s the evidence to support my claim.
2nd and 3rd time through the lineup:
* 46 innings, 33 earned runs, 6.46 ERA
* Opponents have a .310 batting average, .370 onbase percentage and .503 slugging pct.
* And the STL starters have been muscled for 21 extra-base hits including four homers. (A rate of 2.0 homers per 9 innings.) Basically, they become Freddie Freeman or Duke Snider when confronting the same St. Louis pitcher for the second/third time in a game. I use those names because they’re the closest match statistically for the average, OBP and slug that I cited.
* Strikeout rate: 7.7 percent (!!!) And no, I’m not making this up. And no, it isn’t a typo. The Card starters have faced 209 batters in these second-and-third lineup turns, and only 16 of the hitters were retired via the strikeout. The first time through the lineup, the strikeout rate is 21.5 percent. Do these guys run out of gas? Is that the cause?
* The worst-case scenario: that would be when a St. Louis starter is navigating his way through the opposing lineup for the second and third time in a game – and must deal with a left-handed hitter.
* Not good. Really bad. In those scenarios, the LH batters have cracked Cardinal starting pitchers for a .348 batting average, .419 onbase percentage and .620 slug. They’ve struck out only 6.7% of the time and have a 11.4% walk rate. Closet career match to those stats that I could come up with: A hybrid of Stan Musial and Lou Gehrig. That’s what left-handed hitters are doing to Cards starting pitchers in their second and third time through the lineup. They become Stan the Man, or the Iron Horse (Gehrig.)
Good grief.
Curious Problem: Has anyone noticed STL’s designated hitter spot and how it’s a black hole where offense disappears? I know. It’s early. But in the first 16 games of the season, this was what the Cardinals had to show for their 73 plate appearances from the DH spot:
– 8 hits in 60 at bats, .133 batting average.
– 7 singles, one double.
– 0 home runs.
– .260 onbase percentage.
– .150 slugging percentage.
– .410 OPS.
My dear. Where have you gone, Albert Pujols? Can we talk you into a comeback?
On the plus side, if there is such a thing, the St. Louis DH crew has drawn 10 walks and poked in seven RBIs. I guess it could be worse. Actually, there is a team out there that’s squeezed even less offense from their designated hitters.
Going with wRC+, a superior version of OPS+, the Cardinals’ DH peoples are collectively 77 percent below league average offensively. But no need for embarrassment; Pittsburgh’s DH delegation is 90 percent below the league average offensively.
OK, that calls for a quick comparison.
St. Louis DHs and their number of plate appearances: Ivan Herrera 48, Nolan Gorman 30, Yohel Pozo 5.
Pittsburgh DHs and their number of plate appearances: Marcell Ozuna 49, Bryan Reynolds 15, and a total of nine PA between Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe and Nick Yorke. That unit has conspired for a .111 average, .367 OPS, six RBIs and a 26.5 percent strikeout rate. Ozuna, our old friend, is 3 for 43 (.070) this season as the DH with 12 strikeouts and no RBIs. And the Pirates declined to bring back franchise patron saint Andrew McCutchen for another year?
What’s Waino doing? Since the Cardinal designated hitters aren’t hitting, how about giving Adam Wainwright a call and a bat? In his illustrious career as a St. Louis pitcher, Waino also batted .192 in 744 at-bats.
That’s 59 points higher than what the Cards have culled from their DH collection so far this season. And Waino’s career wRC+ was 12 points higher than the team’s current DH level of offense. Gorman is 1 for 16 (.063) with seven strikeouts when used as a DH.
Sort of a Problem: The Cardinals have a minus 20 run differential through 16 games. I shuffled back in time to check out a similar run differential at this specific point of the season. The 2017 Cardinals had a minus 21 run differential and a 6-10 record after 16 games. They rebounded to finish 83-79. The 1969 Cardinals were a minus 23 in run-diff and also 6-10 through 16 games, and rebounded for an 87-75 season. The craziest thing I saw was a minus 33 run differential for the 2001 Cardinals after 16 games. They were 7-9 and ultimately won 93 games and claimed the wild-card playoff spot.
Still a Problem: Left field. Manager Oli Marmol has used three players in left so far: Nathan Church for 27 plate appearances, Thomas Saggese for 22 PA, and Jose Fermin for 14. As a composite, the three have combined for a .207 average and .483 OPS but haven’t homered. The strikeout rate – mostly because of Church – is a bloated 30 percent. This is a barren spot for offense. Fermin has a .481 OPS in limited duty there. Church is batting .115 with a 29.6 strikeout rate. But we’re keeping an eye on Saggese. In his last seven games, which includes time at shortstop, he’s batted .318 with a .757 OPS. And when utilized in left field this season Saggese has a .300 average .764 OPS and a wRC+ that puts him 20 percent above league average offensively. Saggese should be given a fuller opportunity in left field.
Still a Confusing Problem: I wanted to revisit this. Earlier in The Review, I showed you how poorly Nolan Gorman has hit when slotted at DH. And though I have mentioned this a couple of times recently, I wanted to hit it again. When Gorman is in the lineup at third base, he’s George Brett. Not really, but I’m just trying to make a point. This is all small-sample stuff, and it’s not supposed to make a lot of sense.
OK, so for whatever it’s worth here’s where Gorman ranks among the 28 players that have at least 35 plate appearances when lining up at third:
– .300 batting average, 5th among 28.
– .371 onbase pct, 7th.
– .500 slug pct, 2nd.
– .871 OPS, 2nd.
– 138 wRC+, 4th. And that translates into 38 percent above league average offensively.
Gorman has a 31% strikeout rate when in the lineup at third base, but he’s offset some of that with an 11.4% walk rate.
The other thing about Gorman at 3B? Contrary to the prevailing perception, he’s playing good defense there. In 74 innings at third, Gorman is tied for second in the majors at the position with two Outs Above Average. He also is a +1 in defensive runs saved. Again, small sample and all of that, but to this point Gorman has a higher defensive rating than Arizona third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Bunch a Little Problems: The Cardinals had lost eight games on the season through Monday and lost the eight by an average of 4.5 runs … the Cards have averaged 2.42 runs in their last seven home games going into Tuesday … in those last seven home games STL hitters had a too-high groundball rate of 46.4 percent … And in the previous seven home games Cards hitters batted .200 with a .311 slug and .595 OPS … they also hit .153 with runners in scoring position.
Big-Time, Big-Trouble Problem: In the Cardinals’ eight losses through Monday, their starting pitchers had an 8.75 ERA in the losing efforts. In 36 innings they were slapped for 35 earned runs, 54 hits (including five homers), walked 16 hitters, and allowed 74 baserunners … meanwhile the STL relievers had a 7.09 ERA in the first eight losses of the season. Adding to the misery in those eight defeats: the bullpen walked 21 hitters and struck out 23. Not the kind of ratio that a team wants from their relievers.
Inconsistency Problem: Through Monday, Cardinal pitchers (starters and relievers) have a 2.61 ERA in the club’s eight wins and a 7.96 ERA in the eight losses.
Can’t Downplay the Problem: Monday’s thumping by the Guardians left Cardinal starting pitchers with a 5.06 ERA through the first 16 games, which ranks 27th among the 30 teams. But the STL rotation’s expected ERA of 6.12 is the worst in the majors. And the starters’ strikeout rate sank to an even deeper level at the bottom of the MLB rankings at 13.3 percent.
Can’t Ignore the Problem: In his last two starts, Matthew Liberatore has been punished for a 7.20 ERA, and he allowed 20 baserunners in 10 innings. After striking out only two of 23 hitters in Monday’s loss, Liberatore’s strikeout rate for the season dropped to 12.8 percent; that’s down from last year’s 18.8% rate. Liberatore has a 4.29 ERA in four starts, but his fielding independent ERA is a much worse 6.28. Liberatore has been contused for an average of 2.14 home runs per 9 innings, and that’s the third-worst rate by an MLB starting pitcher so far. And his strikeout-walk ratio (1.50) is tied for the second poorest by a MLB starter. Liberatore – clearly – is a disappointment so far.
No Problem Whatsoever: in his last seven home games going into Tuesday, Jordan Walker had three homers (all solo shots), scored five runs, and roped together a batting line of .320/.370/.680 for a 1.050 OPS … When Walker headed into Tuesday’s game, he led the bigs with 8 homers, was tied for 1st among MLB hitters with 1.3 WAR, had the highest isolated power number (.433), led the show in slugging (.767), was 4th in OPS (1.161) and 4th with a wRC+ that elevated him to 119 percent above league average offensively.
Also Not a Problem: Walker’s rate of home runs per 100 at-bats this season. He now has the MLB lead with 13.33 homers per 100 at-bats …for perspective, Mark McGwire averaged 13.75 home runs per 100 ABs when he slugged 70 homers in 1998 … Walker went into Tuesday with six home runs in his previous 30 at-bats … Walker has rocketed a homer 7.5 at-bats this season (through Monday.) McGwire homered every 7.27 at-bats during his historic 1998 season.
AN OUTSIDE VIEW
Grant Brisbee, The Athletic:
“Walker has had hot stretches like this before, and they didn’t stick around for very long, so you’re not wrong to be skeptical. However, Walker is blessed with a rare epistemological condition where he is always two years younger than you think he is.
“The Cardinals have been waiting so long for him to break out, it feels like a typo to read that he’s still just 23. Either way, Walker has more home runs already in 2026 than he did in either 2024 or 2025, and he’s looking like the All-Star who was promised. Another couple of weeks like his first two, and he’ll practically have a nod secured already.”
Thanks for reading and please pardon my typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.