I hope you had a peaceful and happy weekend. I watched movies. Wanted to catch up on “Best Picture” film nominations for the Oscar. After watching Saint Louis U wipe out Dayton on Friday night, I took a two-day break from sports. It was relaxing.
Two weeks from today, Feb. 16, the Cardinals will have their first full-squad workout at Camp Jupiter.
The Brendan Donovan saga – trade him or not – is still hanging like a slider. Will team president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom swing and miss? Will he connect for a ground-rule double, or launch a home run?
Or will Bloom stand in patiently in the batter’s box, holding the bat, and watch three consecutive pitches go by, settling in for called strikes and a punch-out?
Even if that happens, Bloom will have a huge number of at-bats remaining as the Cardinals’ rebuild plays out over the next two or three years. The Cardinals have many issues for Bloom to deal with.
So beginning today, I’ll be taking a closer look at Bloom’s assignments. Some of the areas in need of attention are more of the long-term variety; other matters will require less time.
PROBLEM: THE ST. LOUIS OFFENSE REMAINS BROKEN
Bloom has focused on adding pitching depth but has done virtually nothing to elevate the offense. Perhaps Bloom will sign or trade for a right-handed bat, but it won’t be a game-changing move. At some point in this overall rebuild the Cardinals must revitalize their incapacitated offense. And this will take time.
The 2025 Cardinals ranked 12th among the 15 NL teams in runs scored, were 14th in both slugging percentage and home runs, and flopped in at No. 13 in OPS. The Cards were also 13th in OPS when batting with runners in scoring position, and only two NL teams were more helpless than the Redbirds.
Rookie JJ Wetherholt should provide a boost, but Willson Contreras was traded to Boston, and unless additional talent is added, the Cardinals will rely on the old and unreliable “improve from within” strategy. This mostly applies to Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott, so set your expectations accordingly. The Cards would benefit from more impact at the plate by Masyn Winn.
I did a baseball math exercise this weekend – yeah, that’s how I relax. And as it stands right now, their current set of outfielders who were a part of the 2024 team collectively put together this offensive profile last season:
– .219 average
– .302 on-base percentage
– .321 slugging percentage
– .621 OPS
– 26 home runs.
– One HR every 53 at-bats
– 24.4 percent strikeout rate
– 10% walk rate
Well, at least the walk rate is good.
Otherwise: absolutely horrendous.
ADDITIONAL & RELEVANT NOTES
— The stats I used applied only to the plate appearances taken by a player when slotted in an outfield spot. Brendan Donovan’s hitting stats as a corner outfielder were included. The same applies to Alec Burleson, who had 300 plate appearances as a corner OF last year. (4) I neglected to include Ivan Herrera in this group of returning outfielders. He was 3 for 14 when in the lineup in left field last season and will give catching another try in 2026 – with a lot of DH work.
— The set of returning outfielders (for now) include Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Nathan Church. Burly is set to succeed Wilson Contreras as the starter at first base this season but that could change if the Cardinals trade Nootbaar and/or Donovan.
WHAT ABOUT THE FARM SYSTEM?
Just a few notes; not going to go bananas. But here’s the conclusion: the Cardinals don’t have many elite hitting prospects. It’s a glaring shortage. This could change as some of their Class A league players mature and we can get a better idea of their ceiling.
— The star is catcher Rainiel Rodriguez, age 19. And he’s already made it to No. 19 on ESPN’s Top 100 Prospects list. A truly exciting prospect who could be ready for the majors by mid-to-late 2027. Or certainly 2028.
— Joshua Baez had a breakout season last year while splitting time between High A Peoria and Double A Springfield. Overall, the team’s second-round draft choice in 2021 batted .287 with a .384 onbase rate, .500 slugging percentage, .884 OPS, 46 extra-base hits and 54 stolen bases in 63 attempts. Baez made substantial improvement in his plate discipline, and his eye-catching ‘25 season put Baez on multiple Top 100 Prospect lists going into 2026.
— Baez could graduate to the majors after the 2026 All-Star break, but only if he thrives at Triple A Memphis. Baez has a big arm and is capable of playing center field but will likely end up in a corner OF spot.
— Outfielder Chase Davis, the 21st overall pick in 2023, is looking like a bust after hitting .242 with a .353 slugging percentage, only 10 homers and a 30 percent strikeout rate. That came in the hitter-friendly Double A Texas League. This will be a big 2026 for Davis. Big as a “prove it” year.
— One guy I’ll be tracking is left-side infielder Jesus Baez, who came over from the Mets in the Ryan Helsley trade. He can hit, balancing average and power. A late-season knee injury and surgery in 2024 slowed his progress, but Baez is still only 20, and Baseball America ranked him 17th on the Cards Top 30 prospect list for ‘26.
— And the Cardinals were excited to draft Memphis-area high school shortstop Ryan Mitchell with the 55th overall selection. Keith Law (The Athletic) called Mitchell a “first-round bat” with outstanding swing decisions and power potential. The Cards will likely relocate Mitchell to center field or turn him into a multi-position asset. Baseball America wrote that “Mitchell’s hitting prowess earned him a reputation as an amateur as one of the best pure hitters in the country … Mitchell has the tools to develop into an above-average everyday regular if it all clicks.”
Even though Mitchell hasn’t taken a professional at-bat, Baseball America has Mitchell at No. 13 on STL’s top-30 prospects list.
BLOOM CAN MAKE A TRADE AND HIT THE JACKPOT
My research is by no means complete, but here is a partial list of names of power-hitters that boomed after being traded by their original MLB organization as prospects or inexperienced big-league hitters. I just wanted to provide some examples.
In no particular order:
Junior Caminero
Jeff Bagwell
Yordan Alvarez
David Ortiz
Gary Sheffield
Jose Bautista
Fred McGriff
Eugenio Suarez
James Wood
Randy Arozarena
Josh Donaldson
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Max Muncy
Paul Konerko
Adolis Garcia
Bobby Abreu
J.D. Martinez
Carlos Santana
Michael Busch
Tyler O’Neill
Jermaine Dye
Sammy Sosa
Willy Adames
Edwin Encarnacion
Josh Naylor
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Stowers
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Ozzie Smith. Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith, Chris Pronger and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.