Game Information
Missouri Tigers (14-7) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-10)
Time: 2:30pm CT Saturday
How to watch: SEC Network
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Mizzou -6.5
Total: 149.5
KenPom Projection
Mizzou 77, Mississippi State 71
The Missouri Tigers look to get back on the winning track when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon.
Mizzou got drilled at Alabama 90-64 on Tuesday, ending a run of close games for the Tigers. Up until that blowout, every single one of Missouri’s SEC games had been within a four-point margin with two minutes to go.
With that in mind, it’s tough to lay 6.5 on the Tigers and trust them to pull away from the Bulldogs. In fact, neither of these teams have been a good bet to cover the number. Mizzou is 8-13 against the spread, while Mississippi State has been even worse at 7-14 ATS.
I think the best look for this game is the total - specifically, the under.
Missouri is averaging just 71.5 points per game in their 12 matchups against power conference opponents this season, so I don’t expect them to put up a huge point total here.
And Mississippi State is not a good offensive team. The Bulldogs rank 215th out of 365 Division One teams in effective field goal percentage, and they are a dreadful 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting.
Neither team can shoot free throws with Mississippi State at 68.8% and Missouri even worse at 66.8%, which is ideal for an under.
And another big reason I like this play is the Bulldogs are coming off an outlier shooting performance where they were red hot. Mississippi State shot an uncharacteristic 50.9% from the field and 47.6% from 3 in a blowout win at LSU in their last game on Wednesday.
I’m a big believer in regression to the mean, and I expect to see that on display today for Mississippi State. I really like the under in this one.
Pick: Under 149.5 at -115 on DraftKings (bet to 145)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer