I’m doing my reps in preparation for the annual Roman Numerals Game, otherwise known as the National Football League Championship.
Seattle vs. New England.
What team will be grabbing the Vince Lombardi Trophy with their grubby, sweaty and bloody paws? I make no predictions today – that’s coming next Friday.
For what it’s worth, Seattle is the favorite by 4.5 points and has a Win Probability of around 67 percent. Also worth noting – which I will do later in this warm-up exercise – the Super Bowl has been a rewarding platform for bettors who look for a live underdog that can cover the point spread.
Last preliminary: I ain’t gonna write about how this is a rematch of Super Bowl 49. Yeah this particular NFL Championship also features a Seahawks vs. Patriots clash … but how can this be a rematch when none of the players in Super Bowl 60 competed against each other in Super Bowl 49?
These are entirely different rosters, how in the hell does that qualify as a rematch? What, members of this Seattle team are determined to put their lives on the line to avenge the heartbreaking loss that destroyed the souls of their football ancestors?
A stunning goal-line interception saved the win for the evil Belichick-Brady side – and the stunned Seahawks had their wings removed. Yeah, I’m sure Seattle QB Sam Darnold is gonna be thinking about Malcom Butler when the big game gets underway on Feb. 8.
I guess I sort of went back in time to set the “rematch,” even though I didn’t want to. So dumb and undisciplined of me.
1. Can New England quarterback Drake Maye lead the offense to enough scoring drives and points against a ferocious Seattle defense?
Great question. Even though Maye has had a remarkably good season in his second year as an NFL starter, Seattle has allowed an average of only 15 points per game this season against every opponent that wasn’t the Los Angeles Rams. Since Nov. 30 (including postseason) the Seahawks have played eight games. Two were against the Rams, who piled up some points. But in the other six games, opponents scored an average of eight points.
And then there’s this: since defense-oriented Mike Macdonald became head coach at the start of the 2024 season, the Seahawks have played 11 games against an opposing starting quarterback who was in his first, second, or third NFL season.
It did not go well for the young QBs. They collectively went 1-10 against the Seahawks defense with three touchdown passes, nine interceptions, 35 sacks, an awful 69.4 passer rating and a poor success rate of 37%.
There were some good quarterbacks and/or first-round draft picks on that list including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, and C.J. Stroud. And Bo Nix ain’t bad, either. Good luck Mr. Maye. The MVP finalist is 7-7 career record as an NFL starter when sacked at least four times in a game.
Here’s another note from CBS Sports: “This will mark the seventh time in Super Bowl history that an All-Pro QB has faced a defense in the Super Bowl that gave up the fewest points in the regular season. In the previous six instances, the QB has gone 1-5 with Joe Montana picking up the only win in Super Bowl 24.
2. Mike Vrabel, chasing history.
New England’s outstanding first-year head coach, won three Super Bowl rings as a Patriots starting linebacker and occasional fullback during the Brady-Belichick years. If Vrabel can engineer an upset win over Seattle, he’ll be the first man in NFL history to win a Super Bowl as both a player and head coach for the same team. A victory would also give the Patriots 18 wins this season (including postseason.) That would match the 18 wins collected by the 2007 Patriots who took the loss in the final game of the season – Super Bowl 42. Vrabel played in that game. Vrabel has established himself as one of the NFL’s top head coaches. In his two jobs (Titans, Patriots) Vrabel took over two losing, dysfunctional teams. In seven years, he has a 68-48 record (.586) in the regular season and is 5-3 in the postseason. As I noted earlier this week, the Titans have won six games, total, since making the moronic move to fire Vrabel at the end of the 2024 season. Vrabel? Including the current postseason run, he’s won six games since Dec. 21.
3. Sam Darnold: don’t call it a comeback.
The Darnold “Redemption” narrative is a popular angle among wordsmiths these days. I’m not sure this is a redemption story. I think this is more of an “Escape From New York” story.
Darnold was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, chosen by the New York Jets. That meant a lot of guaranteed money for the talented former USC starter. That was the fortune part; Darnold was generously compensated for being a pinata. The misfortune part of the gig meant getting his head kicked in – repeatedly – as the latest assault victim in a sequence of sad quarterbacks who couldn’t overcome the Jets’ chronic ineptitude, futility and toxicity. I don’t know why we in the media tend to blame the quarterback who gets drafted by a team that has a dreadfully horrible owner, incompetent front office, and a head coach who is on the firing line 30 seconds after he makes the mistake of signing that Jets contract.
Let’s look at Darnold’s record as an NFL starter including postseason:
– Jets, 13-25
– Panthers, 8-9
– 49ers, 0-1
– Vikings, 14-4
– Seahawks, 16-3
Let’s have a moment of silence for the 18 New York Jets quarterbacks who have taken savage beatings in a lost cause since the start of the 2016 season through 2025. Including our own Brady Cook. The Jets are 49-116 (.296) over the last 10 seasons and have been outscored by 1,193 points over that time. Lawdy.
Notes: one start for the 49ers doesn’t mean anything because it was one game. And he did fine. That 8-9 in Carolina requires context; before Darnold was hired by the Panthers, they’d put together a sterling record (not) of 17-31 in the three previous seasons. Darnold was a winner in Minnesota. He’s been a winner in Seattle. A few clunkers along the way? Sure. No one is saying he’s John Elway, OK. But once Darnold was able to emerge – alive – from the New York Jets hellscape, he’s performed well. My gosh, a 30-7 record over the last two seasons? And he’s still viewed as the village idiot, or something like that?
Look, I’ve been guilty of expecting him to screw up in every big game … which is a tired and idiotic narrative. Metaphorically speaking, you can’t stick a young quarterback into the abyss of a New York sewer, and expect him to rise up and be Joe Willie Namath as a rookie. Whether it’s fair or not … the 60th Super Bowl will be the setting of a Sam Darnold tribunal.
4. The matchup I’m really looking forward to.
New England’s shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez vs. the exceptional and pretty much unstoppable Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. (Better known as JSN.)
Line it up: top dawg vs. top dawg.
* When quarterbacks attempt to throw a pass to the receiver being covered by Gonzalez, their passer rating is a comically low 58.3. Oddly enough, Gonzalez didn’t have an interception during the regular season … but he snatched one to seal New England’s win at Denver in the AFC championship. Opponents managed just one TD pass against him during the regular season. The QB’s completion rate was 45.5 percent with Gonzalez defending the designated receiver.
* When the Seahawks target JSN with a pass, Darnold’s passer rating is an astral 120.8. Via Pro Football Focus, JSN has the second-highest grade among NFL wide receivers this season. Puka Nacua ranks No. 1. That’s debatable. JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards this season and gathered 12 touchdown throws. The Rams were helpless to stop him in the NFC title game; Smith-Njigba caught 10 of his 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown.
5. The Patriots are the underdogs in Super Bowl 60. What does history tell us about that?
Answer: don’t assume Seattle will cover the minus 4.5 point spread.
Both teams have awesome records, but there’s one difference: according to TeamRankings Seattle took on the NFL’s fourth-toughest schedule this season. New England played the easiest schedule among the 32 teams. This obviously is a factor in what appears to be at least some skepticism over the Patriots.
The strength of schedule discrepancy is substantial, and that’s a factor in the betting lines in this game.
However … According to TeamRankings.com, Seattle played the 4th most difficult regular-season schedule in the league … New England played the easiest regular season schedule in the NFL.
The strength of schedule discrepancy is substantial, and it’s among the reasons why Seattle is a 4 and ½ point favorite to win the 60th Super Bowl. (The Seahawks top-ranked defense is another factor.)
But betting favorites have done poorly in Super Bowls.In the last 58 Super Bowls the favorites are 35-23 straight up but have gone 25-30-2 against the spread – covering only 45.6 percent of the time.
There’s more: over the past 24 Super Bowls, the underdogs have gone 18-6 against the spread (75% cover rate) including a 14-4 mark (77.8%) in the last 18.
Thanks for reading and have a fantastic weekend…
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.