AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Who and where? New England at Denver
When: Sunday, 2 pm STL time.
Tune in: CBS, KMOV-TV
DK Point spread: Patriots by 4.5
Money Line: Patriots -238, Broncos +195
Over/under: 42.5 combined points
SportsLine Projection: Patriots 21. Broncos 19.
Weather forecast: 25 degrees at kickoff, with a “real feel” temp of 18. Possibly some snow flurries. Wind gusts between 9 and 13 mph.
Follow the Money: 68% of the ATS handle and 72% of the ATS bets are on the Patriots.
Top Storyline: With starting QB Bo Nix lost for the season with a fractured ankle, can the AFC’s top-seed Broncos advance to the Super Bowl with backup Jarrett Stidham stepping in at quarterback? Stidham has been in the NFL since 2019, playing for the Patriots, Raiders and Broncos. He’s started only four regular-season NFL games and his teams lost three of the four. Stidham has not thrown a pass in a regular-season game since late in the 2023 season. Added storyline: Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels encouraged head coach Bill Belichick to draft Stidham in 2019. McDaniels thought he could develop Stidham to become the eventual successor to Tom Bady. That didn’t happen. But when McDaniels became coach of the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022, Stidham followed. Stidham made two starts for the Raiders and went 0-2. But in one of the losses he lit up the 49ers for 365 yards passing and three touchdowns (but was also intercepted twice.) McDaniels – back in New England as the OC – presumably gave the Pats’ defensive staff a thorough scouting report on Stidham’s weaknesses and strengths.
Interesting Trend: Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Under head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos are 9-14 straight up and 11-12 against the spread as underdogs.
Referee? Alex Kemp. Lots of stuff here. Over the last two seasons, favorites are 30-3 straight up with Kemp as the lead official. Kemp was the lead official for two Patriots road games this season and New England won both games outright and averaged 35 points per game. When Kemp is the crew chief, Mike Vrabel-coached teams are 5-2 straight up and 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. When Kemp is the lead official New England QB Drake Maye is 3-0 ATS and covered the spread by an average of 9 points per game. This season favorites went 14-2 straight up and 12-4 ATS with Kemp assigned to the game.
Bernie’s Pick: Payton will do a good job of preparing Stidham for the assignment, and the pumped-up Broncos will undoubtedly rally around the backup. Based on my research this week, I discovered that Payton (as Saints coach) had a 12-9 record straight up and was 14-7 ATS when his backup QB started a game. That certainly attracts my attention.
Denver is getting a lot of support from dog lovers. Two reasons for that: the strength of a Bronco defense that led the league in sacks this season, and (2) Drake Maye’s erratic ways in New England’s home playoff wins over the Chargers and Texans. And now Maye goes on the road to face a team with a formidable defense. I understand the logic there. But I see it another way: Maye was mentally and physically tough in those games, and rebounded from bad moments by making big, pivotal plays. He could have crashed – but didn’t. Those rugged games – including the blustery winter weather in the win over the Texans – prepared Maye for this appointment in Denver.
And it’s easy to point fingers at Maye’s vulnerabilities in his first two postseason starts … but are we really saying that he could be the reason why the Patriots lose this one? As if Maye is a bigger question mark than Stidham? Really?
Drake Maye, a serious league MVP candidate who this season led all NFL quarterbacks in passing accuracy, EPA and success rate? Drake Maye, who passed for 4,394 yards, rushed for 450 yards, and accounted for 35 touchdowns from scrimmage? Drake Maye, who is backed by an impressive running game that’s gotten stronger and stronger? Since Week 15, including the playoffs, the Patriots have emerged with the league’s second-best ground game as measured by yards per game, success rate, and the points above average metric (PAA.)
The Patriots defense has been dominant in recent games after getting some key players back from injury. Denver must have a robust rushing attack to win this one. In the last three games (including playoffs) New England has allowed an average of 66 rushing yards and yielded only 2.9 yards per carry – while having a stuff rate of 25 percent and 12 tackles for losses.
The Patriots have played a much softer schedule than Denver. And this rather jarring trend is certainly worth noting: the last 11 times the home team has been a 4-point underdog or more in a playoff game, they’ve gone 11-0 against the spread. But New England went 8-0 on the road during the regular season and Vrabel's tough-minded personality is instilled in his team.
So, for my part I’ll go this way: I do believe New England will prevail, but the Broncos will make it close and cover the 4 and ½ points.
====================
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Who and where? Los Angeles at Seattle
When: Sunday, 5:30 pm STL time
Tune in: FOX, KTVI-TV
DK Point spread: Seahawks by 2.5 points
Money Line: Rams +124, Seahawks -148
Over/under: 46.5 combined points
SportsLine Projection: Seattle 26, LA 20.
Weather forecast: 45 degrees at kickoff, mostly summer, wind at 7 mph.
Follow the Money: 77% of the ATS handle and 80% of the ATS money are on the Seahawks.
Top Storylines: (1) You can make the case that these are the league’s two best teams – but only one will make the leap into the Super Bowl. (2) The teams split the season series with each winning a game by a whisker. (3) What’s more important, having the best defense or the best quarterback? The Rams have the best QB. Seattle has the best defense. (4) The Rams have been off their game in recent weeks, going 3-3 in the final six regular-season games, then barely surviving to escape with two postseason wins … winning both by a field goal. (5) Can Seattle QB Sam Darnold be trusted in a high-stakes game if his boys need him to make big plays, late, to book a trip to the Super Bowl?
Interesting Trend: Do we think the Rams can score at least 26 points against a mad-dog Seattle defense? That’s an important number. Here’s why: visiting teams that score 26+ points in a conference championship game are 13-6 straight up and 15-4 ATS (79%) since 1992. But when scoring fewer than 26 points, road teams are 10-37 straight up and 17-29-1 ATS (37%) since 1992. For what it’s worth, when the Rams traveled to Seattle a week before Christmas, Sean McVay’s offense scored 37 points (but lost by a point in OT.)
Referee? Clay Martin. A lot of stuff in here, too. As the head official, Martin has been the referee for seven Rams games with McVay as the head coach. The Rams are 7-0 straight up in those games, winning by an average of 12 points per game. As the head official, Martin has been the referee for seven Rams games with Sean McVay as the head coach. The Rams are 7-0 SU in those games, winning by 11.9 PPG.
With Mathew Stafford at QB, the Rams are 8-1 straight up with Martin as the head official including a 4-0 straight-up mark on the road.
Bernie’s Pick: Since nipping the Rams 38-37 in that Dec. 18 thriller, Seattle has won three straight games by an average of 21 points. It’s been an impressive show of force. And though Stafford has been dealing with a sprained finger on his throwing hand, I can’t erase his scintillating 457-yard, three-touchdown passing performance against the Seattle defense in that exciting game.
The Rams have been plowing through defenses with their frequent use of three tight ends in the formation. The Rams have used this alignment at a much higher rate than any offense in the league.
The benefits: when lining up with three tight ends the Rams led the NFL with 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing – averaging 76 yards per game and nearly 5 yards per carry. When utilizing three tight ends the Rams led the league with 1,100 yards passing, 10.5 adjusted yards per passing attempt – and a blistering 20 touchdowns with no interceptions. And in that 38-37 loss at Seattle the Rams loaded up with three tight ends and rushed for 100 yards. But the best part of the triple tight end attack was Stafford completing 15 of 24 passes for 221 yards, three TDs and no pickoffs.
That’s the primary reason why the Rams hung 37 on that rowdy Seattle defense. Can the Seahawks stand up to another triple TE assault from the Rams? That’s one big question.
The second vital question is Darnold. In his two reg-season games (combined) against the Rams he flipped six interceptions with only two touchdowns, a weak 3.6 adjusted yards per passing attempt, and was pressured 35 times. Darnold has lost three of his four starts vs. LA since 2024, and this season Stafford picked apart the Seahawks for five touchdowns and no INTs.
I never count the (coach) Sean McVay-Stafford combo, but I don’t like the way the Rams offense has motored and sputtered in recent games, and Seattle looks primed to deliver a whupping. The Darnold Factor is always there, but if plays conservatively without forcing dunderhead throws and suffering multiple air disasters, the Seattle defense can take care of the rest. Darnold is capable of playing a calm game and making the right decisions. I think some of his poor play against LA this season can go in the outlier file. I’m comfortable with taking the Seahawks to win and cover.
Good luck with your own picks at DraftKings. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.