Read these at your own risk!
If you plan to wager on any of the games this weekend, here’s some guidance from the great numbers analyst Steve Makinen of VSIN:
“Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games,” he wrote.
The specifics:
* Home-team favorites of 5.5-points or less (or as an underdog) are just 17-15 straight up and 13-19 against the spread (40.6%) since 2006.
* But home-team favorites laying 6 points or more are 34-13 straight up and 21-25-1 against the spread (45.7%) in that same time span.
Onto the picks. I want to get above .500 for the postseason.
Buffalo (13-5) at Denver (14-3)
When: Saturday, 3:30 pm STL time
Tune in: CBS
Point spread: Broncos by 1.5
Money Line: Bills +100, Broncos -120
Over/under: 45.5 combined points
Follow the money: according to DraftKings, as of Friday afternoon, 63% of the bets and 64% of the handle have come in on Buffalo.
Storyline: Can the Marvel superhero QB Josh Allen overcome a roughhouse Broncos defense to win a road playoff game for the second consecutive week?
Bernie’s Pick: I’ve been agonizing over this one all week. The Broncos have a strong defense and have charged their way to the league’s No. 1 sack rate. But Allen is the proverbial escape artist. The Denver offense is an issue. If the home team can’t stomp Buffalo’s soft run defense, well, watch out. Eleven of Denver’s 14 victories came by one score, and the team trailed in 15 of 17 games. So this will likely be a close call, either way.
Denver quarterback Bo Nix has improved, but he’ll be going against a Buffalo pass defense that ranks 7th in the league (per EPA.) The Bills have a chance to limit a below-average Bronco rushing attack. And mobile quarterbacks have given the Broncos some problems on defense.
One projection model that I regularly consult has Denver winning by one. With faith in Josh Allen, I’ll take Buffalo and the 1 and ½ points to cover.
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San Francisco (13-5) at Seattle (14-3)
When: Saturday 7pm STL time.
Tune in: Fox.
Point spread: Seahawks by 7
Money Line: 49ers +270, Seahawks -340
Over/under: 45.5 combined points.
Follow the money: Because of the size of the point spread, the wagers coming through DraftKings show the money flowing in on the underdog 49ers to cover; 73% of the bets and 66% of the handle tell us that investors are thinking that way.
Storylines: (1) Can the visiting 49ers get past a truly exceptional Seattle defense to punch a home team out of the playoffs for the second straight week? (2) Can Seattle QB Sam Darnold play a clean and efficient game instead of goofing up to give some easy point-scoring opportunities to the 49ers? Darnold suffered an oblique injury in practice and was added to the injury list as “questionable.” Well, he’s “questionable” in a lot of ways. Kidding aside, Darnold has played better than anticipated this season. But keep an eye on this: in 3rd-4th downs this season Darnold has as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (8.)
Bernie’s pick: The Seahawks opened the regular season by losing to the 49ers at home. But that was a long time ago, which makes the result irrelevant. There’s a more recent clash to look at: Seattle’s 14-3 win at San Francisco in the final regular-season game played two weeks ago. The Niners managed only 173 yards total offense and nine first downs in that one.
Using EPA as our benchmark, Seattle has the league’s No. 2 defense overall, is No. 2 in defensive success rate, ranks No. 1 against the pass, and is No. 1 vs. the rush. The Seattle pass rush isn’t scary great – but it is above average.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is 4-0 in his career in games at Seattle’s Lumen Field. But when Purdy has gone up against a defense coached by Seattle boss Mike McDonald – five games – Purdy and his bros have averaged only 16.4 points.
Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 11-18 straight-up and 12-17 ATS when going up against opponents that have a winning percentage of 75% or better.
The Darnold Factor could be mitigated by a Seattle run game that pounded the Niners for 180 yards on the ground in Week 18. The evidence compels me to go with the Seahawks and spot the 7 points. But that seven-point spread does give me the yips. The bet I really like: taking the under (less than 45.5 points scored in this game.)
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Houston (13-5) at New England (15-3)
When: Sunday, 2 pm STL time
Tune in: ABC
Point spread: Patriots by 3.
Money Line: Texans +142, Patriots -170
Over/under: 40.5 combined points
Follow the money: The wagers fielded by DraftKings tell us that 75% of the bets and 55% of the handle have gone on the Patriots.
Bernie’s pick: I’m going trend-heavy with my choice. The Patriots have won four straight outright and against the spread. And this is sort of the Patriot Way; Steve Makinen tells us New England is 36-7 straight up and 32-11 ATS when riding a three-game (or longer) outright winning streak since 2016.
And while I realize the prime-form Tom Brady won’t be the quarterback for the Patriots in this one – after all, he’s retired – this franchise is 12-1 straight up in home postseason games since 2002. Coach Mike Vrabel knows all about this. As a starting linebacker he was a big piece during the Belichick-Brady years. And then we have Houston’s history. The Texans are 0-6 straight up and 2-4 in ATS in their last six divisional-round games.
But dang, Houston is fire on defense. The pass rush is intense and nasty. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is having a fab season, but it is his second NFL season, and this will be his second NFL postseason game. Maye will have the Texans trying to lasso him all game. But here’s the deal on Maye: he doesn’t flinch much.
Per EPA, Maye is the No. 1 overall quarterback in the NFL, is the No. 1 scrambler, is No. 1 when blitzed, is No. 2 in effectiveness when pressured, No. 3 in overall success rate, No. 1 in completion percentage – and has flicked 31 touchdowns with only 8 INTs.
At the other end of this QB competition is Houston’s C.J. Stroud. In 21 road games including the postseason, he has a mediocre 85.4 passer rating, has 26 TDs with too many (15) interceptions and has fumbled 12 times. And Stroud isn’t backed by a robust running game; the Texans are 30th in rushing EPA.
If quarterback play matters – and I believe it does – New England is the choice here. And Maye benefits from TreVeyon Henderson’s emergence as a top 10 running back. The Patriots will cover the three points – and then some.
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Los Angeles (13-5) at Chicago (12-6)
When: Sunday, 5:30 pm STL time
Tune in: NBC
Point spread: Rams by 4.5
Money Line: Rams -198, Bears +184
Over/under: 48.5 combined points
Follow the money: At DraftKings the Bears have attracted 58% of the handle and 61% of the bets. According to Makinen, only five road teams have been listed as favorites over the last 29 years of the divisional-round playoffs. Those road favorites went 1-4. Only one road team (Rams) is the betting favorite this weekend.
Bernie’s pick: I’m not trying to be a weatherman here. But there’s been so much emphasis on the Rams’ ability to cope with subfreezing temperatures – and how that could reduce their probability of winning – I had to dig in for some research. I couldn’t help myself.
– Overview: In reviewing box scores – because I’m crazy – some of the stuff that went the wrong way for the Rams in cold-weather competitions since Sean McVay became coach had little to do with the weather. For instance: when your defense can’t stop the run, it ain’t because of the weather.
– QB Matthew Stafford has played in three games under 40 degrees since joining the Rams. In two of those games, he threw for 300 yards, five total touchdowns, and one interception – and the Rams LOST those two games. But it wasn’t because of Stafford’s aversion to cold weather. In the third cold-weather game, Stafford played poorly – but the Rams WON. Go figure.
– Based on the listed temperatures in the box scores at Pro Football Reference, Stafford has a 7-11 record when the temp is under 40 degrees. But when his team was favored to win a cold-weather game, Stafford was 5-3. Stafford had a passer rating over 100 in seven of those eight games and the Rams went 5-2.
– What about the freezing conditions? The forecast for Chicago calls for around 20 degrees at kickoff but the temps could fall into the single digits. Well. Stafford is 3-3 in those harsh, subfreezing settings. And in the six games he averaged 253 yards passing, threw 15 touchdowns, and was intercepted only three times. What’s wrong with that? Not a lot.
– The kicking game could be impacted because visiting-team kickers have struggled terribly at Soldier Field since 2016, making only 54 percent of field-goal attempts from 40-45 yards. That’s the worst percentage for a visiting-team kicker in an NFL stadium. The league success rate from that distance is 81 percent.
– Over the previous 20 seasons, road teams are 11-7 in the divisional playoff round in games contested at 20 degrees or less. In the last 10 such games, the result was 5-5 for the visitors.
– What about all postseason games (any round) played at 20 or below? Since 2005, the home teams are 10-11 in those challenges. If we take the temp down to 15 degrees or lower, home teams went 4-7.
I’ve seen enough. The Rams are better than the Bears. The Rams should be able to muscle the Bears out of the way when running the ball. And Stafford has actually been much better than perceived when throwing the ball in cold-weather environments. I think Caleb Williams is awesome, but I have to go with the Rams here as the 3 and ½ point fave. In a separate wager, I like the Rams going over 26.5 points. They’ve done that seven times in the last eight games.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.
As always, pardon my typos.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.