The 2025 NFL playoffs have a different look, and I’m here for it. Don’t bother me this weekend, or Monday night. I’m unavailable for comment. I don’t want to talk to anyone, but texts are OK.
That doesn’t apply to my beloved wife … actually it does.
A conversation from earlier today:
Her: “Hey, Bo, I want to go out for pancakes on Sunday morning.”
Me: “Well, the kickoff for the Sunday’s first game is 11 a.m., but I want to watch the pregame shows, and make some bets, so we ain’t going to a fancy brunch spot. We’re eating early. OK? Be ready to leave the house at 6:30 a.m.”
I’ll be watching seven NFL wild-card games. I’ll be transacting wagers on my phone to DraftKings sportsbook. I’ll consume piles of chicken wings. A bloody mary (or two) may be involved. My thirst for action will be quenched. My hunger will be tended to. My antacid tablets are standing by. I’ve put up a Blue Tent in my home office – you know, just like the ones you see behind the benches during football games – in case I require emergency treatment.
I have some extra curiosity brewing for this postseason. I won’t say a new generation is taking over The League’s January gridiron or anything like that, but it’s nice to see some fresh teams, some new quarterbacks – and some familiar touches of gray.
There’s still a place in the tournament for Mike Tomlin, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. And for the love of Jeff Fisher, former St. Louis Rams quarterback Case Keenum, age 37, is the backup QB for the Chicago Bears. What?
I didn’t realize Case had recovered from the concussions he suffered while absorbing a massive beatdown from the Ravens defense in Baltimore on Nov. 22, 2015 – with Fisher refusing to remove the poor sumbitch from the game.
I think the The League instituted updated concussion protocols after Keenum came out of it looking like the victims in the violent 1973 biker film, Psychomania.
(Couldn’t you just see-or-hear Jeff Fisher telling Keenum this? “If you believe hard enough and drive that bike into a wall, you’ll come back immortal and more evil than ever.”)
Or perhaps not. But hey, 11 seasons later, Keenum’s body is still functioning. I’ll scan the postseason rosters. Maybe Shaun Hill or Austin Davis are the No. 2 and No. 3 quarterbacks for the Chargers or something. Gee, Stan Kroenke’s coach – the leather hair-helmeted Fisher – wasn’t tanking or anything. Right?
OK, let’s move on. Here are a few notes of interest about the 2025 NFL postseason:
HELLO, AND YOUR NAME IS?
– Six of the 14 teams were unworthy of being in the tournament last season.
– As The Athletic noted, 10 teams haven’t won a playoff game in at least two seasons.
– Seven of the 14 playoff qualifiers did not celebrate a postseason triumph over the past five seasons (2000-2024.) The seven are the Steelers, Chargers, Seahawks, Bears, Broncos, and Patriots. And all but one of the seven (Chargers) won their respective divisions this season.
— The top-two seeds in the AFC haven’t claimed a postseason victory since last winning a Super Bowl: the 2015 Broncos and the 2018 Patriots.
– The NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Seahawks, have three postseason wins since winning the Super Bowl to cap the 2013 season.
– The NFC’s No. 2 seed, the Bears, will be playing in their first postseason game since the start of the 2011 season. That’s the most extensive drought among the 14 participants this season.
WELCOME TO THE AFC PLAYOFFS. TABLES ARE AVAILABLE
Yeah, that’s because the Chiefs and Ravens failed to show up for their usual January reservations. Over the past nine seasons, Baltimore and Kansas City made the playoffs a combined 15 times and competed in a combined 23 games. Also missing are the Bengals and Titans, who played in a combined 14 postseason games since 2016.
No coach Andy Reid. No coach John Harbaugh. We don’t see the big-stage quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow.
This absence of old friends has created a void – and an opportunity – that other hopefuls can take advantage of.
I looked at the Playoff Predictor posted annually by the esteemed analyst Neil Paine. His conference-championship probabilities are much more spread out in the AFC. In the NFC, the power is more consolidated with the Seahawks, Rams and defending Super Bowl champ Eagles.
“The AFC is truly wide-open,” Paine wrote. “No matter how you look at things, it’s a lot less clear who’ll represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX than the NFC.”
Among AFC teams, Denver has the highest probability of making the Super Bowl at 31.6 percent – with the Patriots (17%) and Jaguars (16.3%) next on the AFC list. But that’s somewhat misleading, because the Broncos’ overall strength is weaker than that of several top NFC sides.
“That’s because, despite their No. 1 seed and a bye week, Denver is also a highly unimpressive team for their record,” Paine wrote. “They ranked sixth in the AFC in SRS (simple rating system) and won three more games than we’d expect from their point differential, the biggest such gap of any team. So this could open up chances for other AFC teams to forge their own path to the Big Game.”
In the NFC the Seahawks have – because of their extra-strength defense – have the highest chance (46.6%) of winning the conference, followed by the Rams (20.7%).
CHANGING OF THE GUARD AMONG AFC QUARTERBACKS
This is very interesting – and is yet another reason why the AFC playoff bracket is filled with such uncertainty.
In the AFC, an esteemed group of only six quarterbacks — Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow — have started the past 22 Super Bowls. That goes back to the start of the 2003 season.
During their careers as starting quarterbacks for AFC teams, look at the remarkable postseason success delivered by Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Burrow and Flacco:
* 135 postseason starts
* 89 postseason wins
* 19 AFC championships
* 14 Super Bowl championships
That’s a lot of winning, winning, winning.
Now let’s look at the starting quarterbacks for the AFC squads in this season’s tournament:
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers, who started 21 postseason games for the Packers. This is his third season as an AFC quarterback (first two with the Jets) but this will be his postseason debut as an AFC starter.
The other six AFC starters are Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), C.J. Stroud (Texans), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Drake Maye (Patriots) and Bo Nix (Broncos.)
In his 18 years with the Packers, Rodgers started 21 postseason games, bagged 11 postseason wins (and 10 losses), and led Green Bay to NFC championship and one Super Bowl title. Rodgers had a 1-4 mark in AFC title bouts.
Now let’s look at the other six AFC playoff starters in the current group:
* 21 career postseason starts
* 10 postseason wins
* no AFC championships
* no Super Bowl appearances or titles.
Allen has seven of the 10 postseason wins; the others belong to Stroud (2) and Lawrence (1.) Nix and Maye will be starting an NFL postseason game for the first time.
So even if we include Rodgers’ postseason work from Green Bay the totals come to this: 42 career starts, 21 wins, one conference title, one Super Bowl championship.
Let’s just say it’s very difficult to play up to the standards set by Brady, Manning, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, etc.
In case you’re wondering, NFC quarterbacks who have started the previous 22 Super Bowls form a much longer list.
Jalen Hurts
Brock Purdy
Matthew Stafford
Tom Brady (for Tampa Bay)
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jared Goff
Nick Foles
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton
Russell Wilson
Colin Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Rodgers (for Green Bay)
Drew Brees
Kurt Warner
Rex Grossman
Matt Hasselbeck
Donovan McNabb
Jake Delhomme
So unless Rodgers leads the Steelers to the Super Bowl (he won’t) there will be a “new face” AFC starting QB in the upcoming Super Bowl.
Among the current NFC starters in this year’s tournament the only Super Bowl winners are Stafford (1) and Hurts (1).
Other than that, there isn’t a ton of postseason experience on the NFC side of the bracket. Other than Stafford and Hurts, the only one member of the NFC quarterback group (Brock Purdy, 49ers) has started a Super Bowl.
Jordan Love (Packers) has a postseason record of 1-2 and Sam Darnold (Seahawks) is 0-1. Caleb Williams (Bears) and Bryce Young (Panthers) will be making their first NFL postseason start. Stafford and Hurts have each played in two Super Bowls. Their combined postseason record is 11-8.
The road to a spot in the Super Bowl is a superhighway with a clear path and not a lot of formidable race-winning machines in the way. Good luck to the newbies.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend …
–Bernie