COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF INVESTMENTS
After falling on my handsome piehole last week by going 1-3 in wagers placed on the CFP quarterfinals, there is only one thing to do: rise up, wipe the blood trickling from my nose, and give it another go.
First, I have to go through a therapy session, and briefly look back to understand why I failed in three of the four games. I’ll say this: my only significant wager was laying the points and taking Indiana to eradicate Alabama, and so I cashed after the Hoosiers dismembered the Bama Aura to win by 35 points.
What the hell did I miss in picking Ohio State over Miami and laying the 9.5 points? Two things (1) Ohio State head coach Ryan Day called the plays on offense, slowed the pace to a painful crawl, turtles up, and played directly into Miami’s hands … instead of pushing at a much faster pace to wear out the Hurricanes defense. The Buckeyes were predictable and one-dimensional. Coach Day evidently thought this was a Big Ten showdown against, say, Wisconsin. Bad coaching did me in. And (2) Miami is much better than I thought; as quality goes, I thought the ACC was a particularly thin serving of porridge. And Miami didn’t even make it to the ACC’s lightweight title bout! But the Hurricanes summoned power and the glory and the imposing arrogance from the old Jimmy Johnson days. I don’t know if “The U” is all the way back. But the vibe is within them.
What in the name of Nike did I miss in taking Texas Tech to cover the 2.5 points in the matchup with Oregon? The Ducks won this clunker 23-0. I made one huge mistake: (1) I didn’t realize that the real ACC this season was actually the Big 12, which is how Texas Tech became the masters of a powdered-sugar conference. (2) I assumed that Tech’s $30 million player payroll funded by an oilman-billionaire alum who put together a replica of the 1970s Pittsburgh “Steel Curtain” defense saved some cash to invest in the quarterback position. Instead, the Red Raiders trotted out a quarterback who was slightly taller than Eddie Gaedel (Google it). He showed up and looked like a helpless kid trapped by bloodthirsty wolves. This Behren Morton passed for 137 yards, had a few balls swatted back at his face, jumped in fright when the Ducks quacked, got sacked four times, and probably wanted to get a job at the concession stand at halftime. This young Morton was no underdog winner like Matt Saracen; he would have been cut by Coach Andy Taylor after Dillion High’s first practice. Well, at least the oilman billionaire did go out and git hisself a fancy and ‘spensive quarterback in this year’s transfer portal. Some fella from Cincinnati. Maybe he bought Joe Burrow?
Why in the name of Ugga did I assume Georgia would handle Ole Miss and advance to the semifinals? Well (1) I didn’t know that Georgia fired Kirby Smart before the game and replaced him with Tommy Tuberville. And (2) I thought all of this craziness and chaos caused by the traitorous head coach Lane Kiffin would leave the Rebels overwhelmed and overrun in a football version of The Battle of Franklin (Google it.) Instead the proud Rebs defiantly defeated Georgia and aimed a big middle finger salute in Kiffin’s direction. I would have been truly inspired by this – except the Ole Miss uprising cost me some money. All kidding aside, it was a great victory for the entire state of Mississippi. And one helluva story.
OK, now it’s onto the semis. If you see EPA in here it stands for the Expected Points Added metric – which basically measures effectiveness.
OLE MISS (13-1) vs. MIAMI (12-2)
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
When: Thursday with a 6:30 p.m. start STL time.
Watch Party: ESPN
Favored: Miami by 3 and ½ points.
Over/under Total Points: 52.5
CFB Graphs Projected Points: 51.6 points.
CFB Graphs Win Probability: Miami, 58.6%
CFB Graphs Projection: Miami by 4.7 points.
The Storylines: Ole Miss is a fairy-tale story in progress, so Hotty Toddy and (blank) you, Kiffin. Chronically overrated Miami has found its macho mojo after many years of misplaced hype. Mario Cristobal has suddenly channeled the ghost of Don Shula.
Analysis: Let’s get physical. Miami will likely go full caveman on the ground, sending a rushing attack that ranks 10th nationally in success rate into the scrum against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 66th in success rate for stopping the run. According to the Pro Football Focus metrics, the Hurricanes have the second-best first down offense in the nation, a strength that gives them an advantage on second-down plays … and by extension third-down plays. Miami has an early-downs EPA that ranks 18th in the nation – and the Ole Miss defense is 79th in early-downs EPA. Because the ‘Canes get things done early, that’s a factor in their third-fourth down success rate (17th overall.)
The Hurricanes’ powerball formula in playoff wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State turned quarterback Carson Beck into an efficient facilitator – and he didn’t have to be the football hero. If the trend continues, Miami can minimize the chances of Beck screwing things up. And he can do his thing with short and intermediate passes.
On the other side, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss looms as a game-changing armament. His mobility is a plus in two ways: he’s a naturally gifted runner who knows when to go. He ranks 12th in the nation in EPA on scrambles, and is 22nd in designed runs.
And as Georgia learned, Chambliss makes brilliant escapes from the pass rushers – and Miami has a ravenous pass rush that can rattle the QB. The other plus with Chambliss in this competition is his quick release; he gets his throws on the way at an average of 2.6 seconds. That could frustrate those Miami invaders who can’t get to Chambliss in time.
Chambliss has the highest grade in the nation among quarterbacks that are under pass-rush pressure. He’s No. 1 as a runner against pressure, and is the 6th-rated passer under pressure. as 1st in run success when under pressure, and 6th best in passing under pressure. Beck is pretty much the opposite of that; when under pressure (pass or run) he ranks 95th overall among quarterbacks. And that includes a 64th ranking when passing. But if Beck has a clean pocket, he’s very good.
Miami has the more physical team on both sides of the ball. The Hurricane defense the 7th best EPA nationally per rushing attempt against them. Here’s the key to that for this game: according to the metrics, the Rebels’ offensive line doesn’t get much push in the run game. The ‘Canes are relentless at crashing the blockers, and allow an average of only 1.1 yards before contact. So that should slow the superb Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy; he’ll have to Lacy break a bunch of tackles in this conflict. And Chambliss must be an asset in the run game.
Chambliss is the best quarterback – and best playmaker – in this compelling matchup. In reaching the semifinals, Miami really flustered Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, and Ohio State QB Julius Sayin. That won’t be nearly as easy to do against Chambliss.
The X Factor: Other than Chambliss, of course. Mark Fletcher (Miami) is a forceful running back. And that fits with Miami’s desire to control the pace and time of possession. Can the Ole Miss defense bust that rhythm and put the Hurricanes in a lot of difficult third-down scenarios? If so, that would put Beck in some bad spots.
This Could Matter: Ole Miss has one of the very best long-distance kickers in the nation in Lucas Carneiro. Over the last two seasons he’s made 20 of 22 field goals of 40 yards or longer including nine of 10 from 50+ yards.
Bernie’s Pick: I respect Miami but I want to believe in Ole Miss. Here’s what I’m thinking: Ole Miss has a highly capable offense that can roll up yards and points in a number of ways. And until now Miami’s two postseason wins were achieved against offenses that were poorly coached and underprepared. And while I give big props to the Miami defense, we saw Chambliss shake and bake his way through a very tough Georgia defense last week. On top of that, Carson Beck hasn’t been good in the playoffs, averaging just 5.3 yards per passing attempt. I’ll take the points and Ole Miss … because I think Chambliss can generate enough points to get the Rebels into the national title game.
====================
OREGON (13-1) vs. INDIANA (14-0)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.
When: Friday, with a 6:30 pm start STL time.
Watch Party: ESPN.
Favored to win: Indiana by 3 and ½ points.
Over/under Total Points: 46.5
CFB Graphs Projected Points: 49.4
CFB Graphs Win Probability: Indiana, 61%
CFP Graphs Win Projection: Indiana by 6 points.
Storylines: From 1953, when Indiana joined the Big Ten, the Hoosiers had a .375 winning percentage through 2023. That included a .387 win percentage in conference games. But since the start of 2024, when Frank Cignetti became coach, the Hoosiers have a .926 winning percentage overall (25-2) and are 18-1 (.947) in conference action. A blooming in Bloomington. Will the Hoosiers win two more games to claim a national championship that was a mission-impossible possibility before Cignetti was sent to Indiana by the football gods? As for Oregon, this is a revenge game. A rematch game. The Hoosiers beat them by 10 points, at Oregon, during the regular season. I’m puzzled by the folks who keep saying, “Hey, it’s really tough to beat the same team twice in the same season.” OK. Considering that Oregon couldn’t beat Indiana in Oregon – why would anyone think it would be easier for Oregon to beat Indiana in Atlanta? Makes no sense.
Analysis: I’m gonna try and keep this simple. In the first clash between these proud B1G teams, Cignetti did a Cignetti on unsuspecting Oregon coach Dan Lanning. And Dan Lanning is a terrific coach. Indiana gave Oregon quarterback Dante Moore so many different looks, Moore never knew what to expect from down to down. He wasn’t sure how the coverage would be set up. He wasn’t sure where the pressure would come from. Moore is very good, and he’s smart. But he got the Cignetti treatment … and that can discombobulate any quarterback.
Moore has been sacked only 14 times this season, and six of those sacks were bagged by Indiana in the Cignetti does the Cignetti game. Which means Moore was sacked only eight times in his other 13 games. When Moore faced an opponent other than Indian this season, those defenses pressure him an average of 7 times per game. Indiana buzzed him for 20 pressures. In the loss to the Hoosiers, Moore was pressured on a remarkable 50 percent of his dropbacks.
How can any quarterback be expected to handle that? When pressured in that game, Moore completed 40 percent of his passes, threw two interceptions, averaged MINUS 2.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and had a passer efficiency rating of 15.6.
Let’s continue … When playing opponents who weren’t named Indiana in 2025, Moore had a positive play rate of nearly 60 percent. Against Cignetti’s team, his positive-play rate was 30 percent. So Indiana must have sent a wave of blitzers at Moore, right?
Umm, no. When the Hoosiers rushed only four guys – and did so on 25 dropbacks – Moore was pressured 12 times (48% rate), sacked five times (20% rate) and picked off twice.
I mean … good grief. This all explains why Moore passed for only 186 yards against The Hoosiers, including a meager total of 91 air yards. He did manage to throw a touchdown but was intercepted twice. On 13 dropbacks on third or fourth down, Moore was pressured at a rate of 54%, sacked three times, and had a negative play rate of 42 percent. This was a case of quarterback abuse.
So here’s the biggest question about Friday’s rematch: what did Oregon learn from that first awul collision with Indiana? What can the Ducks do to shield their quarterback from another gory beatdown? And in a related note, what will Cignetti change up – if anything – to put Moore back into the dizzied, dazed, altered-mind mode?
A few other quickie points:
– Indiana smothered Oregon’s run game in the first meeting. The Ducks managed 81 yards on 30 carries and were stuffed 10 times – and hit at the line 11 times. Oregon must do much, much, better than this in the rematch … or Moore will be a sitting Duck again.
– Oregon’s defense did a solid job against IU Fernando Mendoza the first time around. The Heisman Trophy winner had a passer rating of 81.2, averaged just 5.7 yards per passing attempt, and was victimized for a pick-six interception. The Ducks will need to have a similar level of success against Mendoza on Friday night.
– And Mendoza will take sacks; the Ducks have to exploit that and take Mendoza down more often when he drops back to pass.
— During my research, I noticed something that surprised me. I do believe Oregon has a really good defense … but …the Ducks were ranked 79th nationally in limiting points when an opponent put together a quality drive. Oregon allowed an average of 3.84 points per quality drive, and that’s too much. Indiana can move the ball; that’s to be expected. But in Friday’s game, Oregon must get Indiana off the field before the Hoosiers have a chance to cash in for points.
— This also surprised me: Oregon’s defense ranks 50th nationally in success on third-and-fourth downs. Which explains why they allowed so many points on quality drives by the opponent. That must improve in the rematch.
— Indiana is an older, more experienced team. Oregon is a lot younger and inexperienced compared to the Hoosiers. You just don’t see Indiana making a lot of mistakes on offense or defense.
— Only 18 teams in college football that gave up less than 20 points per game this season. Indiana played three of them and went 3-0.
– Indiana needs to run the ball better this time, because Oregon really limited IU’s explosive plays in the first clash. If the Hoosiers can do more damage on the ground, that will help Mendoza … not that Mendoza is helpless, or anything like that.
— But in the first competition between the teams, Mendoza had his second worst passing grade of the season according to Pro Football Focus. And Indiana’s pass-blocking grade against Oregon was its second worst of the season. That’s why I think a more impactful running game will give Indiana a boost by limiting Oregon’s opportunities to harass Mendoza. Oregon blitzed Mendoza 41% of the time in the first game, and it made him uncomfortable. It was a little unusual because Mendoza has the best passer rating among power conference quarterbacks when pressured.
— Oregon’s offense mustered only 13 points in the 30-20 loss to IU back in mid-October. I don’t see much of a path to victory for the Ducks if that happens again.
Trends To Consider: It’s a small sample, but Dan Lanning has struggled in big games before, going 0-2 both straight-up and against the spread as a neutral-field underdog as Oregon’s coach.
That isn’t the case with Cignetti. In his two seasons, Indiana is 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS when favored to win by 3.5 to 10 points.
Bernie’s Pick: Indiana contained the Ducks to 267 total yards in the first meeting and has done even better along the way, holding Alabama to under 200 yards while owning the trenches. And Moore will face an IU defense that has added more wrinkles to its pressure-coverage tactics since then. So Oregon better come up with some answers – and do it early in the game.
But I just look at my sheet of handwritten notes and see this resume: Indiana has the second-best overall EPA margin in the nation. Indiana is 1st nationally in EPA on offense and 4th on defense. The Hoosiers are No. 2 nationally in overall success rate on offense – which includes No. 2 in passing success and No. 3 in rushing success. Cignetti’s men are first in the nation with an average of 2.71 points scored per drive. The Hoosiers are also 2nd nationally in limiting points, giving up only 0.62 points per drive. Where is the weakness?
Needless to say, I’m going with the Hoosiers to cover the 3 and ½.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.