Game Information
Missouri Tigers (10-3) vs #22 Florida Gators (9-4)
Time: 7:30pm CT Saturday
How to watch: SEC Network
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Florida -7.5
Total: 154.5
KenPom Projection
Florida 82, Mizzou 76
Mizzou Tips Off SEC Play
The Missouri Tigers play their SEC opener tonight in Columbia against the defending national champion Florida Gators.
Mizzou is 4-9 in SEC openers, including 3-5 when playing their first conference game at home.
Tigers’ Season In Peril
The SEC is the country’s best conference once again this season according to KenPom, and the Tigers are tasked with having a winning record in league play if they realistically want to make a return trip to the NCAA Tournament. Missouri accomplished essentially nothing in non-conference play, going 0-3 in Quad 1 games. Their best win is a Quad 3 victory over Minnesota, and their nine other wins came against Quad 4 teams.
Mizzou has been licking its wounds for a couple weeks now after getting embarrassed by Illinois in the Braggin’ Rights game on December 22nd by a score of 91-48.
Gators Have Played Tough Schedule
Florida is just 9-4 on the season, but don’t be fooled thinking this is a bust of a team after winning the national title last year. The Gators are very good in the metrics, ranking #23 in the NET and #12 in KenPom.
Florida is definitely battle-tested. All of the Gators’ losses have been one or two-possession games against Arizona, TCU, Duke, and UConn.
My Pick
The Tigers haven’t had injury luck this season, but overall, I think the biggest reason for their lackluster start is Dennis Gates swung and missed in the transfer portal. In my eyes, the Illinois game confirmed my suspicion - this is not a good team.
I think we are getting value on the Gators here because their overall record doesn’t look great on the surface, but this is a battle-tested team that is ready to hit the ground running in SEC play. I expect Florida to dominate on the glass, as the defending champs are the #1 team in the country in rebounding margin at +17.2.
Look for Florida to win this game by double digits.
Pick: Florida -7.5 at -108 on DraftKings (bet to -9.5)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer