Let’s talk about some power ball.
In trading Willson Contreras to the Red Sox, the Cardinals subtracted 20 home runs from last season’s total of 168 homers. Among MLB teams, only the Pirates hit fewer la bombas than the Cardinals in 2025. Contreras led the Cards in this department, and next season he’ll be taking aim to clear the Green Monster, and I can see many Contreras-launched line-drive doubles smacking the famous Fenway Park rampart.
So, based on Cardinals that are still here as of now, the team’s current starting point for 2026 is 148 homers. How do the Redbirds possibly penetrate the air spaces over MLB ballparks with soaring baseballs that go for home runs?
This is a challenge and a problem. Last season the 30 MLB teams averaged 188 home runs. The 10 teams that hit the most home runs averaged 227 deep shots. The 16 teams that made the postseason averaged 201.5 home runs.
All of this is a long way up from 148. Of all the teams that made the 2025 playoffs, the lowest home-run count was 166 by the Brewers. I’m not trying to portray the Cardinals as a postseason contender. I’m just making a point. At some point the Cardinals must develop a more capable power-ball element to their offense.
So what about 2026?
Candidates:
– A slugger to be named later. Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom almost certainly will trade Brendan Donovan, and I have to believe he’ll be on the prowl for a young hitter with substantial power potential. Almost every team that is said to be interested in Donovan have power-hitting prospects to offer. Some of those teams – especially the Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Yankees, Giants and Royals – have multiple power bats in development. I wonder what Bloom could get from LA if he packaged Donovan and Lars Nootbaar. The Red Sox have a couple of power hitters in the system, but Bloom may target one of the high-end Red Sox starting-pitching prospects. I don’t embarrass myself by concocting fantasy trades, but I’m trying to mention some realistic possibilities for teams that want Donovan and have young-power merchandise.
– Ivan Herrera had 19 home runs last season. But because of injuries he played in 28 fewer games than Contreras. And Herrera actually had a better home-run ratio than Contreras. Herrera homered every 20.4 at-bats. Contreras went deep every 24.5 ABs. If Herrera can stay in the lineup and maintain the home-run ratio he posted in 2025, he’d need 500 at-bats to whack 25 homers.
– Alec Burleson has 39 homers over his last two seasons including 18 in ‘25. He’s hit a homer every 26.7 at-bats since the start of 2024. But with his high-contact skills, Burleson could definitely be a 25-homer dude … maybe even 30 … if he can stop chasing too many pitches out of the strike zone.
– Nolan Gorman. Despite his chronic swing-whiff and strikeout issues, Gorman walloped a home run every 19 at-bats during his first four MLB seasons. That’s pretty good. Problem: Excluding his plate appearances that end in a walk or a hit-by-pitch, Gorman has struck out every 2.6 at-bats and 38 percent of his ABs were terminated by a punchout. That said, as recently as 2023 Gorman had a 27-homer season and drilled a HR every 15 at-bats. That’s what the Cardinals need from him.
– Jordan Walker had 15 homers as a rookie in 2015. But since then he has only 11 home runs in 538 at-bats; that’s just one homer for every 52 at-bats. Walker should be better in 2026 but I can’t project any lofty home-run totals. We have to see how he looks early on in ‘26.
– Nolan Arenado. Yeah I still anticipate a trade. But just in case he’s still here in 2026, let’s remember that Arenado lofted a career-low 12 homers in 2025. And over his last two seasons his home-run rate is one per every 36 at-bats.
– Lars Nootbaar has put up double-digit home run totals in each of his last three years but never more than 14.
– Top prospect JJ Wetherholt is a smooth, refined and wonderfully mature hitter. And his power is coming. After his promotion to Triple A Memphis last season, Wetherholt hit a home run every 18.5 at-bats and slugged a robust .562. But this is a splendid all-around hitter that isn’t a grip-it, rip-it type of slugger. He does too many other things well – including a high walk rate – to sell out for home runs. But most scouts now believe JJ can hit 20+ homers early in his MLB career, once he settles in.
– Joshua Baez: one of the Cardinals’ fast-rising prospects, the 22-year old outfielder hit a home run every 21 at-bats last season while spending time at the High-A level before getting moved up to Double A. Baez hit for power power at the Double A level, clobbering a big fly every 17 at-bats for Springfield. His power potential is a real thing – but how soon will Baez reach the majors? And once he gets here, can Baez power up early in his big-league career or will it take him a lot of time to reach 20 to 30 homers against big-league arms?
– Rainiel Rodriguez: the hard-hitting catcher was only 18 last season when he smacked 20 home runs in 300 at-bats while navigating three different levels of the minors. This prodigy’s power is the real deal, and he barrels pitches with frequency and authority. Probably the most exciting and legitimate power-hitting weapon in the organization, including the majors. But he’ll be only 19 in 2026, and at least a little patience is necessary. That said, it would be awesome to see Rodriguez get a lot of experience at Double A in 2026. And at that point we could envision him on the big-league launch pad.
– Deniel Ortiz is the Cards’ No. 25 prospect at MLB Pipeline. Keep an eye on him. Only 20 years old last season, the corner infielder slugged .446 at Low-A Palm Beach and increased that slug to .500 in 30 games after being elevated to High-A Peoria. Might be a DH type.
– Chase Davis, a former first-round St. Louis draft choice, has only 22 home runs in 926 minor-league at-bats so far, and with a disappointing .371 slug. The outfielder will be in his age-24 season in 2026, and it’s time for him to make a move.
– Blaze Jordan has abundant raw power that was being converted into a much improved slugging percentage in the Boston farm system last season. But he stalled after being traded to the Cardinals for Steven Matz at the deadline. Jordan didn’t perform well for Triple A Memphis, but there’s still time for him to show what he can do. Jordan has a .453 slugging percentage in his five minor-league seasons after being drafted in the third round at age 23.
The search is on!
MORE ON THE CONTRERAS TRADE
Here’s a take from our friend Ben Clemens at FanGraphs on the deal that sent Willson Contreras for pitchers Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita:
“The Cardinals had the luxury of not being in a hurry to trade Contreras, and I think it paid off for them here. Hunter Dobbins can absolutely be a part of the next good St. Louis team, and the organization has had enough difficulty drafting and developing starters in recent years that adding outside help makes a ton of sense to me. Even if Fajardo and Aita don’t pan out – that’s the median outcome for prospects that far from the majors – 100 innings a year of competent pitching from Dobbins sounds mighty nice given how much the Cardinals have struggled to produce that, even with meaningful spending in free agency, during their most recent window of contention.
“Call it a win-win, then; Chaim Bloom and his former team have partnered on another swap that benefits everyone involved. Maybe this wasn’t the present most Bostonians hoped to find under the first base tree this Christmas – Schwarbinos and Polar Bear Petes are very popular this year – but it’s a great gift nonetheless, and the Cardinals got to fill their stockings with a depth starter and minor league pitchers in return.”
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
At this time of the year, it’s traditional to bring out this old holiday chestnut, which has been passed along through the generations by many people. I get a smile every time I read this list … and what makes me smile is reliving my actual memories that fit this list.
THE FOUR STAGES OF MAN
1. Believes in Santa Claus. But of course. I knew for sure that Santa existed when, as a kid, I went bananas in my desire for a drum kit, so I could be Charlie Watts (Rolling Stones), Ringo Starr (Beatles), John Densmore (The Doors) or Dennis Wilson (Beach Boys). Or even Buddy Rich, who I saw on Johnny Carson’s show a bunch of times. (I’m old, people.) And Santa delivered! A three-piece drum set that I banged on for hours at a time. Best-ever present from Santa. Behold his power!
2. Doesn’t believe in Santa Claus. When this happens in each kid’s life is a case-by-case basis, but once you discover the truth, it kinda messes with your childhood innocence, and you slowly turn into a jaded, cynical sumbitch. I was the big brother who looked at my younger Santa-believing siblings and thought “Y’all are really naive.” But at least I did the honorable thing and kept the secret.
3. Becomes Santa Claus. This happened to me. No, really. I was 17, needed a seasonal gig for extra income, and so I applied for a Santa job at a local mall. It was a busy mall, and the lines and the hours were long. First of all, at that age I had no business playing the role of Santa. I looked ridiculous, because obviously I was too young. I think I disappointed the parents of the kids. I did not fit the image. I kinda feel guilty about that. But I was a big boy, and that was my only qualification. The woman who hired me did so because I filled out the Santa costume.
Worst thing about being a fake Santa? Some of the really young kids, pre-school age, would pee on my lap. I would get kicked in a sensitive area on occasion. It was an occupational hazard and I can honestly say that I was never a grouchy Santa. I was very nice about it all. Even when the kids tugged on my fake beard and pulled it off or started crying for no reason.
The best part about being a fake Santa? A lot of the young women who had jobs at stores in the mall thought it would be fun to go flirt with Santa. Little did I know, but Santa had a strange and even powerful appeal to these dear damsels, and they would suggest different things that we could do for fun. Put it this way: I never answered with “Hey, we could play some Strat-O-Matic baseball.” I had other ideas.
Naughty Santa! Bad Santa! Go to Father Pabst for confession! And yeah, the Catholic priest was really named Father Pabst. He was 6 foot 7 and about 250 pounds, and looked like a broken-nosed Baltimore Colts defensive end who had just finished throwing down in a dock brawl at the Baltimore harbor. Scared the hell out of me.
4. Looks like Santa Claus. Yeah, that would be me. I’ll be 67 in about six weeks. And though my hair is still dark, with some flecks of gray, I could easily play the role of Santa and would look the part. (With a fake white beard of course.) I assume Santa had the old-dude aches and pains and questionable eating habits, and I’m thinking he was never opposed to spiking the egg nog, or perhaps sipping a dirty martini with just a lil’ splash of olive brine. I think Santa would make some wagers on Draft Kings, and maybe curse a team for messing up his bet.
If at least some of that is true, then he’s my spiritual brother. One difference: The real Santa made little kids happy. Me? I make videos and holler about stuff.
BEST (MOSTLY) NON-TRADITIONAL CHRISTMAS SONGS
I put this list together a few years ago, and nothing has really changed on my choice-cuts list of Christmas songs that are oriented to rock, pop, soul and some country. There are no right or wrong picks here. It’s all subjective and a matter of personal taste. I have added some new selections after checking out some things I’d missed. These are listed in no particular order.
– Run Rudolf Run, Chuck Berry
– Christmas *Baby Please Come Home, Darlene Love
– Santa Claus Is Coming To Town, Bruce Springsteen
– This Christmas, Donny Hathaway
– Frosty the Snowman, Ronettes
– Little Saint Nick, Beach Boys
– 2000 Miles, The Pretenders
– Merry Christmas Baby, Otis Redding
– Christmas All Over Again, Tom Petty
– River, Joni Mitchell
– Santa’s Beard, The Beach Boys
– Someday at Christmas, Stevie Wonder.
– Hard Candy Christmas, Dolly Parton
– Happy Xmas, War Is Over, John Lennon and Yoko Ono
– Silent Night All Day Long, John Prine
– Merry Christmas Baby, Springsteen
– Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas, Judy Garland. (OK, it’s a classic, but I adore this song so you’ll have to give me a mulligan. The Billie Eilish version is also fantastic.)
– Blue Christmas, Elvis Presley
– Looks Like a Cold, Cold Winter, Ingrid Michaelson
– Pretty Paper, Willie Nelson
– Please Come Home for Christmas, The Eagles
– Fairytale of New York, The Pogues
– The Man With The Bag, Jessie J
– Christmas Wrapping, The Waitresses
– Christmas Lights, Coldplay
– Snowman, Sia
– Do They Know It’s Christmas, Band-Aid
– It’s A Marshmallow World, Darlene Love
– Rudolph the Red-Nose Reindeer, Jack Johnson
– White Christmas, Panic! At The Disco
– Sleigh Ride, The Ventures
– Believe, Josh Groban
– The Christmas Waltz, She and Him
– O Holy Night, Vince Gill (had to sneak another classic on here.)
– Merry Christmas, I Don’t Want To Fight Tonight, The Ramones.
– Kasey Musgraves, Christmas Makes Me Cry
– Man With The Bag, Kay Starr
I could go on …
Have a Merry Christmas, everyone.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.