Are the Cardinals rebuilding?
If so, then how long will it last?
Let’s take it one question at a time.
IS IT A REBUILD?
When the Cardinals brought in Chaim Bloom as an advisor before the 2024 season, they sent four obvious signals:
A) They would take a new direction in talent procurement or, if you prefer, roster construction.
B) They would modernize a dusty, inadequate and outdated player-development system.
C) There would be an emphasis on cultivating starting pitching and do most of that internally – setting a goal to restore a former organizational strength that had lapsed into mediocrity.
D) The Cardinals were planning to rebuild even if they don’t call it a rebuild. Using the word “rebuild” evidently sets off very loud alarms that infuriate an already agitated and disillusioned fan base. For the most part Bloom and the DeWitts have been transparent, but the refusal to publicly refer to their plan as a rebuild is funny to me.
It’s not an evil word. It is not banned from the baseball language. Teams rebuild. Some really, really have to rebuild. Some have been very good at rebuilding. But if the Cardinals had remained in denial and held off on an overdue project, the situation would have deteriorated even more than it did.
If president of baseball operations John Mozeliak had stepped down after the disastrous 71-91 season in 2023 – to open the job for Bloom – by now the rebuild would be close to completion.
Instead, the Cardinals ignored reality and stayed the course and ranked 22nd in overall winning percentage among the 30 teams over the past three seasons –failing to make the postseason all three years.
That’s why fear and avoidance of the word “rebuild” is silly. Do you want to win again, or not? The Cardinals let the product rot, and it’s time to fix it, and make it healthier, stronger. And that isn’t done by spending stupid money on payroll to create even more mistakes and continue to spiral. Awful payroll decisions is one of the main reasons why the Cardinals got into the place where a rebuild was necessary. into this spot that made a rebuild so necessary. But I still hear from fans who push back on the idea that this will be a rebuild ... just because Bloom hasn't called it that ... and some folks don't think a rebuild is necessary. OK.
Late during the 2025 season, I reached out to someone who knows Bloom well and was familiar with his thinking. I asked if I should expect a rebuild in St. Louis.
“Yes,’’ this person responded.
OK, would this be a slow rebuild?
“Very slow,” I was told.
I’m not sure my source was correct about the “very slow” characterization, but from what I’ve seen so far … yeah, this is a rebuild.
Could I change my view on this? Maybe. But if I did alter my opinion it wouldn’t be because I decided to flip-flop.
The reason would be based on Bloom’s actions this offseason.
And by the way, I have said and written that it’s possible we’ll see a moderate rebuild. When Cardinals fans and media hear “rebuild” they usually assume the worst: tear everything down, blow everything up, scorch the earth, fire everybody, start from scratch, and eat about 95 to 105 losses over the next three or four seasons. Devastation! Despair! Ruination!
It doesn’t have to be that way, and I’ll explain what I’m talking about a little later in the Redbird Review when I look at the question: “How long will it last?”
It probably won’t be a thorough rebuild if ...
1. Bloom trades third baseman Nolan Arenado but keeps two or three position players that have at least two years of club contract control remaining, a group that includes super-utility dude Brendan Donovan, first baseman Willson Contreras and outfieldesr Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. Perhaps Nolan Gorman is on that list as well; the mixed signals make it difficult to know – one way or another. If two or three of those men are traded, then it fits into the rebuild terminology.
Starting pitcher Sonny Gray is gone. I would expect that lefty reliever JoJo Romero will be dealt as well. What do they have in common? Both can become free agents after the 2026 season. And that makes Bloom’s decisions pretty easy.
I’d be totally surprised if the Cardinals moved Burleson, but I assume Bloom would be willing to include Burly in a trade if the trade package had the potential to significantly boost the Cardinals future – and maybe even get some help for 2026. But I anticipate Burleson to be here because it makes too much sense. But there is a (trade) price for everything.
But if Bloom keeps Donovan, Contreras and Nootbaar – well, that signals a different message … at least to me, anyway.
Something along the lines of ...
“Hey, you know what? I've been thinking about this and I think we can compete and surprise people in 2026.”
If Bloom doesn't feel that way, then why would he keep three tradeable veterans -- four if if we include Arenado -- who can become free agents after the 2027 season? How would that make sense? You do this only if you believe there’s a chance to legitimately compete in ‘26 and ‘27. And I’m sorry, but in this instance “competing” doesn’t mean winning 82 games, up from 78 in victories in 2025. And what would the Cardinals gain from that? Nothing. But keeping guys who are tradeable commodities would only delay, and harm, the team's chances of winning in a way that lasts? The man isn't stupid.
Unless Bloom is fully serious in his belief that he can put together a surprisingly good team in 2026, then he’d be wasting an opportunity to give the Cardinals a winning future by cashing in the most coveted trade-piece assets. I don't think -- for a minute -- that he'll do that.
Bloom is pragmatic. He isn’t a dreamer who succumbs to the magic of fairy tales. He’s probably reading Baseball Prospectus or the ‘“Rays Way”... or perhaps catching up on the Latin Classics that were a part of his curriculum as a Yale student.
That’s one of the things I really appreciate about Bloom. He’s been assigned an important job, and his decisions will impact the Cardinals for many years. I don’t see him saying "oh, what the hell, why not, let’s wing it" by latching onto a pipe dream, and inhaling the fumes of fancy.
2. It won’t be a serious rebuild if Bloom aggressively acquires two big-league starting pitchers between now and spring training. I’m not talking about collecting generic arms that don’t have much of a performance record in the majors. I’m talking about starting pitchers that already have shown the ability to pitch effectively in the majors and can significantly improve the rotation in a way that goes beyond "innings eater." And he’ll have to add a reliever or two as well. But even then, the Cardinals would be up against it because of their limited offense. And in a side note, I think we all expect him to obtain at least one starting pitcher this winter to give the rotation a shot of stability.
The Cardinals ranked 25th in starting-pitching ERA, 22nd in starting-pitching FIP and 29th in strikeouts by starting pitchers over the past three seasons. And Sonny Gray is gone. How can a team contend with such thin, vulnerable starting pitching? And that’s virtually impossible with a lethargic St. Louis offense in place.
3. Bloom wouldn’t have to go into a full rebuild if he can somehow come up with a power hitter or two through outside moves – via trade or free-agent signings. You know, the big bats that can make instant and damaging impact in 2026. Not impossible … but good luck with that.
4. The “rebuild” is off if the Cardinals begin adding a substantial amount of payroll over the remainder of the offseason. The same would apply to next offseason, even though 2027 is an uncertainty because of a looming labor war between the owners and players.
As for jacking up payroll this offseason, the decision would be highly unusual (delusional?) considering how the Cardinals are reducing the payroll again before 2026. Here’s their yearly season-end, 40-man payroll ranking going back to 2021. Source: Cot’s contracts.
2021: ranked 9th in MLB.
2022: ranked 12th.
2023: ranked 15th.
2024: ranked 13th.
2025: ranked 19th.
The Cards’ season-end 40-man payroll was $178.3 million in 2024, and it dropped to $134.5 million in 2025. To this point of the offseason, Cot’s projects the Cardinals at $105.7 million for 2026. That could go up some; we’ll know in a couple of months.
The $105.7 million estimate will change, but by how much – especially if the front office offloads additional contracts? I’m not a payroll obsessive, and I’m confident the Cardinals can be a lot more successful by having a smart and efficient payroll that minimizes waste ... which in turn opens up the payroll for a lot more money when the Cardinals are prepared to take a significant step forward.
This is not that time.
Just remember these two quotes from Bloom during his introductory news conference at the end of September:
— “We have talent here. We have more talent coming, and we have some of the makings of that core, but we need more. Our top priority will be to build our talent base for the long term. That may mean hard decisions and short-term sacrifices, but to get where we want to go, we can’t take shortcuts — and we won’t.”
— “We will always want to win. And we will hunt moves and decisions that allow us to do that right now, too, as long as they also serve our ultimate goal. But when we have to choose between short-term gratification and our bigger goal of contending consistently, we will choose the long term. We will make moves with that ultimate goal in mind because, simply put, that’s where this organization needs to be.”
HOW LONG WILL THE REBUILD TAKE?
First off, I’m not including chronic losers in the “rebuilding” category. Teams like the Pirates and Rockies (and others) are in a constant state of rebuilding without progress that leads to sustained success. The White Sox and A’s belong in that group as well.
For potential relevancy, I looked at five teams that have gone through planned rebuilds over the last 15 years or so …
Baltimore Orioles from 2018 through 2021: not including the pandemic-shortened season in 2020, the O’s staggered through at least 108 losses for three consecutive full seasons – 2018, 2019 and 2021. Including the Covid year, their winning percentage over the four years (2018 through ‘21) was .326.
The Outcome: the Orioles went 83-79 in 2022, won the tough AL East with a 101-win season in 2023, and bagged 91 wins and a wild-card spot in 2024. Last season Baltimore relapsed to a 75-87 record – worse than the Cardinals (78-84). But that team still has a collection of impressive young talent and should rebound in 2025 – as long as the front-office and ownership go with a more urgent approach to round out the roster. And that’s a question.
Detroit Tigers 2017 through 2022: in their five full seasons over that time, the Tigers lost anywhere from 96 to 114 games four times and had an overall winning percentage of .393.
The Outcome: the Tigers improved to 78-84 in 2023, then made the playoffs as a wild-card entry in 2024 and 2025. But they averaged 86.5 wins in the two postseason-bound seasons. (Not overwhelming, but credit to the Motown men anyway.) The Tigers have a good base of talent and a farm system that was ranked No. 1 in the majors before the 2025 season. The rebuild, while successful, hasn’t peaked. But what happens if Detroit trades their rotation ace, Tarik Skubal, this offseason?
Houston Astros, 2011 through 2014: After the end of an era (Bagwell, Biggio and Berkman), the Astros decided to rebuild and hired Jeff Luhnow away from the Cardinals to lead the project. It turned out great … well, except for the postseason cheating scandal in 2017. From 2011 through 2014, the tearing-it-down Astros had a .358 winning percentage and averaged 104 losses over the four-season period.
The Outcome: Luhnow masterfully cultivated a talented and deep crop of young prospects, many of whom evolved into their championship nucleus. The Astros tanked – and it worked. Houston reentered the competition with winning seasons in 2015 and 2016.
They returned to the playoffs in ‘15, and won the World Series in 2017 and 2022. Houston’s streak of eight consecutive postseasons finally ended in 2025. Since the beginning of 2017, only the Dodgers have a higher regular-season winning percentage than the Astros (.595). And over the last nine seasons only the Dodgers have more postseason victories (64) than the Astros (59). I don’t think any Astros were cursing the decision to rebuild during Houston’s extensive run as a dominant team. But hey I could be wrong.
Kansas City Royals, 2018 through 2023: KC had gone through different rebuild versions before, having failed to make the postseason from 1986 through 2013. It was a weird franchise that kept trying to buy their way into baseball prosperity, but that was mostly a giant flushing of money. But GM Dayton Moore, relatively new to the job, got off to an erratic start but ultimately did a terrific job of funneling talent to the Kansas City roster through drafts and trades, and the Royals emerged from decades of irrelevancy to win two consecutive AL pennants in 2014 and 2015 – and captured the World Series trophy in ‘15. That rebuild worked – once the Royals FINALLY summoned the courage to do it. Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist -- plus a solid rotation and a deep, lockdown bullpen. That was a heck of a team.
Now, let’s move ahead to more recent times. From 2018 through 2023, in their five full seasons (not 2020), Kansas City lost 97-plus games four times including 106 defeats in 2023. The Royals hired J.J. Piccolo as the second in command to Dayton Moore late in the 2021 season and he succeeded the fired Moore a year later.
The Outcome: Piccolo has done an impressive job on the draft-development front (hello, Bobby Witt Jr.!) and has made many effective low-cost supplemental moves to put the Royals on a winning track. The Royals had winning seasons in 2024 and 2025. If you’re looking for some hope for the Cardinals, the Royals went from 106 losses in 2023 to winning 86 games and making the playoffs the very next season.
How did it happen so quickly? Before 2024, the Royals committed $110 million to free agents and signed Bobby Witt Jr. to the largest contract in franchise history at seven years, $288.7 million. Obviously KC owner John Sherman made that heavy financial commitment – in part because he’s been lobbying area public officials for a new ballpark.
Kansas City’s opening day roster in 2024 had 19 players who were not with the team at the start of 2023. The Royals fell off to 82 wins in 2025, but Piccolo’s work shouldn’t be downgraded because of that.
Chicago Cubs, 2012 through 2014: After the 2011 season, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts recruited Red Sox expatriate Theo Epstein to lead a fully-charged, explosive rebuild of an underachieving team that had made the playoffs only four times in the previous 22 seasons. Epstein ripped the roster apart with a willingness to sell off any Cub that had trade value – and who wouldn’t be part of the team’s future. From 2012 through 2014, the Cubs averaged 95.3 losses per year including 100 in defeats in 2012. But the high-powered dynamite cleared the way for something historically profound.
The Outcome: by tanking the Cubs assured themselves access to premium, early first-round draft picks like Kris Bryant and Javvy Baez. Theo also traded for first baseman Anthony Rizzo and signed prime-form starting pitcher Jon Lester to an expensive contract. They traded for starter Jake Arietta in the summer of 2013. The trade was a steal and Arietta won the Cy Young in 2015. They signed Ben Zobrist. They gave a bundle of money to free-agent right fielder Jason Heyward. There were other impact moves as well.
Epstein engineered one of the best and fastest rebuilds in MLB history … and it required only three seasons! In 2015 the Cubs won 97 games and knocked the Cardinals out of the division round in four games. Then in 2016, the Cubs killed off all the ghosts who haunted the franchise by winning their first World Series since 1908. The Cubs advanced to the 2017 NLCS before losing, and qualified for the postseason in 2018. But the party came to a stop after that, much of it because of Ricketts’ conservative payroll approach.
As I said earlier in this piece, I wish the Cardinals would have started their rebuild after the 2023 season. In my opinion, Bloom would have had the Cardinals in a really good spot by now.
After wasting 2023, 2024, and 2025, at least the Cardinals have decided on a firm direction in Bloom’s first offseason as prez of baseball ops. And if he’s skilled at this, which I believe he is, then Bloom’s rebuild won’t drag on. As recent baseball history tells us, dedicated rebuilds can happen faster and get positive results sooner than expected. And I hope the Cardinals will become the latest example.
You don’t have to call it a rebuild … and the rebuild deniers are out there. That’s cool. But the Cardinals are in a rebuild. Come up with another title if it makes you feel better.
I understand why folks are confused by all of it. This will be the 31st season of DeWitt ownership, and the Cardinals have initiated a decisive and tectonic rebuild for the first time. These plans have been a remedy for other franchises I cited in this review. I’m not sure why there’s so much fear and loathing out there. Continued mediocrity was not an option.
Thanks for reading ….
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.