As part of my custom service to paid subscribers that signed up for the “Insiders” program here at STL Sports Central, I’m bringing back the “Bernie Bits” column that was a signature of my work at the Post-Dispatch back in the day. The format won’t be the same as it was then – but it’ll be close enough. And I plan on doing it once a week for subscribers …
Let’s proceed!
BERNIE BITS, NOV. 19
THE BB LEAD
The Eli Drinkwitz Tracker: As of Wednesday morning, the Kalshi Prediction Market had the Mizzou coach with a 42 percent chance to land the Penn State job. That puts him well ahead of the next coach on the list, Georgia Tech’s Brent Key at 20% … Drinkwitz is also the favorite to become the next Penn State coach as relayed by betonline.ag which lists Drink with 3-2 odds … Kalshi has Drinkwitz with a 10% chance of becoming Florida’s next coach, and a 12% shot to get the gig at LSU. Surprisingly, none of the betting markets included Drinkwitz on the list of possibilities at Auburn. But some college-football media believe Drink is in play there.
NEXT
Pavel Buchnevich stinks on ice. I created a Buchnevich File, just for y’all.
There’s no reason to skate circles here; Buchnevich is an enormous liability to the St. Louis Blues. He spent too much time sleep-skating during the Blues’ 3-2 overtime loss Tuesday at Toronto. In his 17 minutes and 19 seconds of total ice time, the Blues were outscored 3-1. They were outscored 3-0 with Buchnevich out there at even strength. He did not have a shot on goal. He mustered the courage to deliver one hit. He lost his only faceoff. Give that man some caffeine. Maybe a quadruple espresso before each period.
On a team loaded with sitting passengers who don’t want to drive the bus to get the Blues out of their torpid start to the season, Buchnevich is probably the biggest and most expensive free rider of them all.
For your consideration:
* Buchnevich has only two goals this season in 361 minutes of all-strengths hockey. Both scores came via the power play.
* Glaringly, he does not have a single goal in 263 minutes at 5-on-5.
* He does not have a single goal in 279 minutes of even-strength play.
* Buchnevich is one of only five NHL forwards to go without a goal this season after playing at least 263 minutes at 5-on-5.
* Buchnevich is one of only two NHL forwards without an even-strength goal among the 88 that have played at least 279 minutes. The other scoreless forward with that much playing time is Seattle’s Matty Beiners.
* Buchnevich is minus 11 so far this season. That ties him for fifth worst among the 166 NHL forwards that have clocked at least 300 minutes on ice.
* Buchnevich is averaging 0.3 goals per 60 minutes this season. In his first two seasons as a Blue, Buchnevich averaged 1.3 goals per 60, but that rate continues to plummet. He dropped 1.0 goals per 60 in 2023-24, then to 0.8 per 60 last season, and now he’s all but bottomed out.
* His current rate of 1.2 points per 60 minutes would be the worst of his career.
* Through the Blues’ first 20 games this season the careless Buchnevich has four takeaways and 20 giveaways with the puck.
* The Blues have been outscored 16-9 with Buchnevich in service at 5-on-5. They’ve been outscored 21-11 with Buchnevich deployed at even strength. The team’s deficit is 10 goals (29-19) at all strengths when Buchnevich is wandering around.
And here’s the capper: despite the obvious signs of a Buchnevich decline and a factual trend of statistical collapse, Blues GM Doug Armstrong gifted Buchnevich with a six-year, $48 million contract before the season. Buchnevich, who turns 31 in April, will count $8 million against the St. Louis salary cap each season through 2030-31. So what’s Buchnevich’s incentive for competing hard? He’s all set to get paid a lot of money for six seasons (including this one) without a care in the world …
My friend Ben Hochman of STLtoday is demanding a Buchnevich benching. I agree with the sentiment, but I’d prefer a Buchnevich trade and salary dump. But how dumb would an NHL team have to be to take on a snoozing passenger and all of the money that he’s using for a big pillow to sleep on?
Maybe Doug Armstrong should be benched instead.
MOVING ALONG …
Hat tip to Thomas Gauvain of Redbird Rants: In an online story published Wednesday, the hard-working Gauvain let us know the Cardinals have verbally agreed to a contract with international free-agent outfield prospect Emmanuel Luna. The kid has been called “The Dominican Aaron Judge” for his power displays in the Dominican Republic. The deal can’t become official until early 2026, when Luna turns 17. The Cardinals reportedly have committed to a signing bonus in the range of $2.5 million to $3.5 million. Earlier this year, Luna also made a list of the top available international prospects put up by FanGraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. This aggressive signing is a good indicator of the St. Louis ownership plan of being more ambitious in the amateur international talent pool.
MOVING ALONG:
More Deep Blue (As In Sad) Notes: The boys have trudged out to a 6-9-5 start, and are 1-1-3 in their last five games. Here’s another sign of their lame competitiveness: five times this season the Blues have gone into overtime with a chance to collect the full two points – but have plucked just one point in all five games … the Blues are allowing the most goals per 60 minutes (3.74) in the NHL and have the league’s worst save percentage with an appalling .863 … the Blues are 30th among the 32 teams with 17 points and their … their .425 points percentage also ranks 30th. Last season, through the first 20 games, the Blues had an identical .425 points percentage under Drew Bannister, who was fired on Nov 24. At the time of Bannister’s sacking last season, the Blues were 9-12-1 for a .432 points percentage … I like that rookie Dalibior Dvorsky leads St. Louis with three power play goals so far. But in 117 minutes at even strength the talented prospect doesn’t have a goal or an assist and the Blues have been outscored 5-1 when he’s on the ice.
NEXT ….
Dear Cardinals: Just Say No, Or Hell No, to these suggestions.
— Any proposal that would send Cardinals starter Sonny Gray to the Mets for starting pitcher Kodei Senga. Flip Gray for a young, cost-controlled, payroll-efficient starting pitcher. Not a soon-to-be 33-year old pitcher that’s made 23 starts (combined) over the last two seasons. Over the past two years Senga has missed 214 in-season days with stints on the Injured List for shoulder (120 days), calf (66) and hamstring (28) troubles. Senga also comes with a ridiculous contract. He’ll be paid $15 million in each of the next two seasons. But that’s not the stupid part. Senga’s contract includes a conditional $15 million option for 2028. So what’s the “condition” anyway? Senga would be paid the $15 million only if he blows out an elbow, has Tommy John surgery and spends 130+ days on the IL in ‘28. Great … so that means the Cardinals would get stuck with picking up the $15 million tab if Senga can’t pitch in 2028 at age 35. He has a 10-team no-trade clause, so that should stop this loony proposal.
— The Cardinals trade Sonny Gray to Atlanta for catcher Sean Murphy. What? Yes, some dude actually wrote this on one of the aggregator sites that gin up absurd trade proposals to feed the gullible and uninformed. The Cardinals have more than enough catchers, and some esteemed catching prospects are on the way. They don’t need a guy, Murphy, who missed plenty of time because of injuries the last two seasons and is due $45 million in guaranteed salaries over the next three seasons.
SCATTERSHOOTING
– I was surprised … not shocked .. to see the Cardinals leave lefty pitcher Pete Hansen off the 40-man roster when some tough decisions had to be made. The finesse lefty was a third-round draft choice in 2022 and has some potential. His 3.93 ERA at Double A Springfield wasn’t bad for the hitter-friendly Texas League. Perhaps Chaim Bloom and staff are gambling that Hansen will go through next month’s Rule V Draft without being taken.
– I was a little surprised to see the Cardinals decline to put potential power-hitting corner infielder Blaze Jordan on the 40-man for these three reasons (a) he was drafted in the third round by Chaim Bloom in Boston; (b) the Cards acquired Jordan from the Red Sox in the trade for pitcher Steven Matz last summer; and (c) the big fella does have scary raw power. But after slugging .511 in High A ball, Jordan’s power didn’t carry when he moved up to Double A and Triple A. And he hit poorly after joining Triple A Memphis after the trade (.198 average, .366 slug.) But if Jordan isn’t picked off in the Rule V draft, he could get another chance in the Cardinals system.
– Mizzou is a 7-point underdog for Saturday’s game at Oklahoma. (OU is listed as a 7 and ½ point favorite at some shops.) I’ll be writing more on this Friday, but here’s a note: At the Kalshi Prediction market, 72% of the legal wagers have been put on Oklahoma to win straight up. But in terms of the 7.5 point spread, 52% of the prediction investments have gone with Missouri to cover.
– Deeply saddened by the death of American roots legend Todd Snider, a brilliant songwriter and keen observer who delivered a beautiful catalogue of music that we can treasure forever. I loved knowing that John Prine and Todd Snider were close friends and buddies in Nashville. Prine, one of my all-time favorites, supported Snider by signing him to Prine’s own Oh Boy Records. Now both of them are gone. Prine lost his life during the Covid pandemic in 2020, and now it’s Snider who died tragically. Now that they’re both upstairs, perhaps they’ll organize a singalong to Prine’s “When I Get To Heaven.” Not that anyone asked me but my favorite Snider Albums are (1) East Nashville Skyline, (2) Agnostic Hymns & Stoner Fables and (3) The Devil You Know.
– Absolute Brilliance: “Death By Lightning” on Netflix, starring Michael Shannon as James Garfield, 20th president of the U.S., Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”) as Garfield’s assassin Charles Guiteau, and the outrageously authentic Nick Offerman as VP Chester A. Arthur. It’s a fantastic period piece that’s packed with history and drama and humor and wickedly great performances. Highly recommend.
– I really don’t get upset over the weekly CFP rankings. But I’m confused by Notre Dame (No. 9) being ranked ahead of Alabama (No.10) in the updated top 25.
– Both teams have two losses. Using the AP Poll as the reference, Notre Dame is 2-2 against opponents that were ranked at game time.
– The best Notre Dame victory came over USC, which was 20th when they met. Alabama is 4-1 against teams that were ranked at game time, with wins over No. 5 Georgia, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 14 Mizzou and No. 16 Vanderbilt. The one loss was to No. 11 Oklahoma.
– Yeah, Alabama had a terrible first-week loss at Florida State. Notre Dame’s losses (Texas A&M, Miami FL) were more respectable. But a 4-1 record against ranked opponents is pretty damn strong, and certainly rates a spot ahead of Notre Dame. According to the FPI, Alabama has a slight edge over Notre Dame in strength of record. But in strength of schedule, Alabama is 4th, and Notre Dame is 29th. Yep, confusing.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.