Good day to you. It’s the start of the new week, and before I get typing, I want to post a note.
My Monday columns here on our site will be available to everyone. But starting this week, my columns from Tuesday through Friday will now be available to STL Sports Central Insiders. And if you sign up to become an Insider, I will make myself available for insider-only chats on a regular basis. Thank you for your support. For more information on the Insiders, please click HERE!
Now, onto the Monday column …
In 2025 the power-challenged Cardinals hit only 148 home runs, the second lowest total in the majors to the Pirates’ 117 count. And STL’s .379 slugging percentage was 27th among the 30 MLB teams.
This continued a troubling trend for the Redbirds. Over the past three seasons the Cardinals rank 22nd in home runs, 23rd in slugging and 25th in Isolated Power. And it’s no coincidence the Redbirds came in 20th in runs scored.
That said, this team’s No. 1 problem offensively is the futility in the power department. And with the way baseball is played in these modern times of ours, the low-power Cardinals are at a disadvantage in contending for a playoff spot. Or for having lasting success in the postseason.
This doesn’t apply to 2026 because the Cardinals are going through a calculated rebuild – not a demolition – and are unlikely to qualify for the ‘26 playoffs. Maybe in 2027. Maybe in 2028.
But when the time comes, and the Cardinals have moved up and improved their playoff odds, they must be equipped with a more substantial supply of power. They must be ready to generate lightning bolts in the autumn sky.
Here’s why I say this …
— Since MLB expanded the postseason tournament to 12 teams in 2022, the teams that ranked in the top 11 in home runs for the regular season have muscled their way into 48.4 percent of the 64 available playoff spots over that time.
— Teams that ranked in the top 15 of the annual home-run leaderboard have claimed 51.5% of the postseason slots.
— There are exceptions, of course. Teams that ranked between 20th and 29th in the annual home-run derby have snatched 17% of the 64 invitations to baseball’s Octoberfest.
— And once the playoffs begin … boom! During the 2025 postseason, the team that out-homered its opponent in a game went 29-6 for an .828 winning percentage. My goodness. Does that tell us a little something about the value of home runs in postseason ball, or what?
— In the 2025 postseason, the participants combined for 113 home runs. That’s the most in the October theater since the playoffs expanded in 2022.
The Cardinals have a lot of catching up to do. They can’t be a powerful offense unless they have … a powerful offense.
In 2025, the Cardinals had a 28-12 record when homering at least twice in a game. The problem? Only three MLB teams had fewer games of swatting two or more homers than the Cardinals. The Cards failed to homer in 69 games, and only the Pirates and Royals came up empty more often than that.
Just to show you the impact of homers on the outcome of the Cardinals games in 2025, consider this:
* No home runs in a game: 22-47 record, .319 winning percentage.
* Exactly one home run in a game: 28-25 record, .528.
Just the minimum of one home run in a game – at least in this case – would have made a lot of difference in the standings for the 2025 Cards.
During his usual appearance on “Sports on a Sunday Morning” with Tom Ackerman on KMOX, Chaim Bloom was asked about his team’s meager power. The president of baseball operations offered a typically thoughtful answer.
“It's just a fact, like you said, that we didn't do that that much in 2025,” Bloom responded. “And look, it is important, I think, to be a complete player and to be a complete hitter, not every situation. Not every pitch calls for trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark, and if you can't do some of those little things well, if you can't be a hitter first, you'll be too exploitable to get your power.
“That said, in today's game, as nasty as pitchers are, as infrequent as contact is becoming, you better make that contact count when you do get it, and you better be able to take advantage of those good counts when it's a good time to try and drive the baseball. So it's certainly something that we look to do. It is a big part of today's game.
“I think there are some guys on our roster who have a chance to do more and more of that as time goes on,” Bloom continued. “But obviously something that you look at out on the market. “It’s tough, in a sense, to go ask a player to hit for power without expecting them to have a good foundation as a hitter.
“You'd like guys to get to that more naturally. The game's just too hard to assume that if you're swinging for the fences on every pitch, that's what you're going to get.
“It usually comes better from a sound approach, and from being able to work the count, get into an advantage count where a pitcher has to give you something that you can drive.”
I think most of us agree with that. Having said that, the Cardinals actually had good and sound plate discipline in 2025.
The Redbirds had the 11th lowest strikeout rate (21.8%) in the majors, and ranked No. 6 among the 30 teams for best contact rate. Only two MLB teams had a higher contact rate than the Cards on strike-zone pitches. And only four clubs had a lower swinging-strike rate.
There were flaws, of course. As a group the 2025 Cardinals still chased too many pitches out of the zone and generally didn’t get ahead in the count with enough frequency. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker collectively struck out 33 percent of the time in their combined 798 plate appearances.
But overall, the plate discipline was solid.
That improvement, however, did not lead to a power boost. And even when St. Louis hitters got ahead in the count this past season, the power pretty much remained dormant.
Take a look…
When connecting on a 1-0 pitch: 28th among the 30 teams in slugging percentage, and 27th in homers.
When hitting a 2-0 pitch: 28th in slugging, 28th in home runs.
When swinging and contacting a 2-1 pitch: 30th in slugging, 28th in homers.
What about a 3-1 count? That’s a hot spot for hitters. Big advantage. The Cardinals did fairly well on 3-1 offerings, ranking 5th in batting average and 17th in slugging. But their six home runs on 3-1 pitches ranked 23rd.
Full-count pitches: 17th in slugging, 22nd in homers.
Note: the Cardinals didn’t swing at many 3-0 pitches in 2025, so there’s no point in presenting the numbers.
So if your team is good at making contact on strikes, and when they’re getting ahead of the pitchers in the count, then more struck baseballs should be leaving the yard for a home run. That didn’t happen much in 2025.
When the Cardinals connected ahead in the count in 2025, they ranked 21st in batting average, 28th in slugging and 29th in homers. They banged only 47 homers in those situations. A total of 15 teams had at least 70 home runs on 3-1 pitches.
And sure enough no Cardinal hit more than 20 home runs in 2025. That’s a talent problem. That’s a physical shortage of power. And that’s the challenge for Bloom: finding guys who can launch and take a lot of home-run trots around the bases.
The power drain can’t continue into the future. There are a few internal candidates that can lead the Cardinals to more power because they can hit with authority.
Ivan Herrera: 18 home runs and a .462 slugging percentage in 388 at-bats last season. Over the last two seasons, Herrera has pounded left-handed pitching for a .526 slugging percentage and a wRC+ that’s 62 percent above league average offensively. He’s among the top hitters in the majors when setting up against lefties. And Herrera hasn’t peaked yet.
Raniel Rodriguez: the catcher, only 18, is STL’s No. 3 prospect on Baseball America’s list. This is what BA had to say about his hitting.
“Since stepping foot on a professional baseball field, Rodriguez has displayed a blend of advanced plate skills, plus-plus raw power and elite batted-ball angles. His knack for finding the barrel is his defining skill.
“He shows the ability to consistently drive the ball in the air. Rodriguez’s contact skills and swing decisions are above-average for age and level, and he does a good job limiting strikeouts and getting on base.
“While the plate skills are impressive, Rodriguez’s plus-plus raw power is his loudest tool. He consistently gets to it in games by running high barrel and pulled-air rates. Rodriguez is an optimized hitter with strong underlying skills, power and launch.”
Sounds good to me. But young Rodriguez might be a couple of years away. Maybe sometime in 2027.
Outfielder Joshua Baez: He’s moving fast after fixing his glaring plate-discipline issues to do a vastly better job of controlling the strike zone. Playing at two different levels last season, and still only 22, Baez triggered 20 home runs and a .500 slugging percentage – with 54 steals! – in just 117 games.
I gave you some of this in Friday’s column, but here’s some of what Baseball America said about him, just in case you missed it:
“A physical specimen, Baez looks like a football player in the outfield. He has a muscular frame with quick-twitch athleticism and impressive power output. His raw power is 70-grade (excellent) and he gets to it in games more consistently with the adjustments to his swing.
“A plus runner, Baez was one of the best base stealers in the minors in 2025 and presents a true plus power and speed combination … Baez broke out in a major way in 2025 and looks like he could debut for the Cardinals in 2026. He’s a potential above-average regular with the potential for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.”
Bloom can do his part by acquiring a developing power hitter who is getting close to the majors. Maybe someone that his staff has been tracking with some ideas of how to tap into more power. This is where the analytics advantage can be a big help.
Or scouting director Randy Flores, with guidance from Bloom, could go for a power bat – from the college level – in the 2026 draft.
The Cardinals also have a sleeper prospect in infielder Jesus Baez, still just 20 years old. The Cardinals got him from the Mets in the Ryan Helsley trade. And it took a while for Baez to settle in once he arrived at the Cardinals’ high-A affiliate in Peoria. But in his final 16 games of the season, Baez hit .303 and slugged .530. He’s a right-handed hitter, and that’s a plus.
And finally, there’s at least a chance that Jordan Walker can emerge as a dangerous hitter after the Cardinals’ player-development staff puts him through the diagnostics that can change his trajectory. The same can be said of Nolan Gorman.
Power potential is the No. 1 reason why Bloom wants to give both young hitters more time to find themselves. If the new regime can fix Walker and Gorman, it would be a powerful development.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and the Heisman Trophy.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.