Amid an off-season that is expected to see plenty of moving and shaking from Chaim Bloom's front office in his first winter at the helm, it may be hard to accurately predict what the Cardinals roster will look like when the team opens up the 2026 campaign in late March.
From a pitching standpoint, we're handicapping the race to fill out a five-man starting rotation, knowing full well that the way it ended 2025 won't be the way it opens up next season.
Brenden Schaeffer and Joe Roderick broke down their thoughts on this conversation in Wednesday's Cards Central 365 podcast, including Andre Pallante's role, the potential for a Sonny Gray trade, and whether it's time to give Kyle Leahy a legitimate look.
Inspired by our discussion in that video, here's how I'm pricing the possibilities. Be warned, the following isn't a list of my exact prediction for the 2026 rotation. These are simply percentages that I'll place on a given player being in the Cardinals rotation to begin the season, without equating health into the picture--obviously, if an injury happens to a given player, that will tank this experiment. So let's just assume health for these prognostications.
Pitcher: Percent Chance of Being in Cardinals Opening Day Rotation
Michael McGreevy: 100%
Short of an injury, there's nothing that will keep Michael McGreevy out of the Cardinals rotation in 2026. He acquitted himself effectively to a starting role once he got the chance last summer, and there's no realm in which he is traded this winter.
Matthew Liberatore: 99%
If I had to bake health into this equation, I might dock Libby slightly based on some fatigue-related issues he experienced this past season. But overall, Liberatore making it through the year healthy and with moderately effective numbers positions him for a bona fide role in the rotation next season.
I'll leave room for the slimmest possibility of an out-of-left-field trade proposal if Chaim Bloom wants to go galaxy brain on this MLB hot stove, but I certainly don't anticipate it.
Andre Pallante: 60%
Pallante's numbers in 2025 weren't tenable, but his contract status (mostly) is. The right-hander won his arbitration case against the team last spring, leading to a $2.1 million salary. MLB Trade Rumors projects a healthy bump to $3.4 million in 2026 through the arbitration system, though I would probably take the Under in the event that Pallante has less leverage following a disappointing campaign.
This percentage isn't iron-clad, as I'm leaving a small chance that Pallante is non-tendered if the Cardinals elect to spend a similar price point to replace him in the open market. I'm also leaving room for the possibility that the Cardinals are aggressive and creative in pursuing depth that could challenge Pallante for a spot in spring training.
But if the club believes he can simply eat innings for a relatively low cost, that should be enough to maintain his inclusion in the season-opening rotation.
Kyle Leahy: 55%
I considered flipping the percentages on Leahy and Pallante, as I've been talking about Leahy as a rotation candidate since early last season. His multi-inning stints were often extremely impressive and his varied pitch arsenal lends itself to navigating a lineup multiple times.
Though Oliver Marmol would surely miss the luxury of Leahy as a weapon out of the 'pen, a quality starter will always carry more value to a club than even the most highly-valued relief pitcher. If Leahy is capable of holding down a rotation spot, that's where he should live for the Cardinals in 2026.
Sonny Gray: 40%
Mark me down in the camp of folks expecting Sonny Gray to be dealt this winter. He's got one year remaining on his contract, a $35 million price tag that increases when you factor in a buyout on a 2027 option. Even if the Cardinals have to eat a healthy chunk of the cost, they should have a market for a pitcher with Gray's upside. He logged 180 innings and eclipsed 200 strikeouts again in 2025.
Plus, the more willing the Cardinals might be to eat some salary, the better the return could be in terms of talent coming back to the Cardinals in this deal. Though, where the team lands on that priority could be interesting to see.
Gray has the say-so here on where he lands, so I'd be looking geographically to something near his native Nashville (Atlanta) or for a contender with a pleasant pitching climate in those summer months (California teams). This is no surefire outcome, but if the Cardinals can't find a mutually beneficial deal, the good news for fans is that they probably win more games with Gray in their rotation than in somebody else's.
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While, the above are the only names that I give a notable percentage chance to be in the season-opening rotation, there's a category of player that will almost certainly be in there, too. I'll put the percentage of an outside acquisition, via free agency or trade, at about a 90% chance of being included in the rotation. The degree to which Chaim Bloom and Cardinals ownership swing for the fences with this one remains to be seen.
The Cardinals could sign one starter with enough pedigree to assume that he will be a shoo-in for a spot come the end of spring training. They could also trade some of their surplus of left-handed hitting position players for an arm that could, at minimum, come into spring camp competing with the likes of Pallante and Leahy for a rotation spot.
If both happen, it's probably a signal that Sonny Gray was traded, Pallante was non-tendered, or some combination of those factors.
As for prospects like Quinn Matthews, Liam Doyle and others, there's always a chance that somebody rises above expectations in February and March down in Jupiter, grabbing a gig slightly ahead of the anticipated timeline for them to do so. But it's hard to put much of a percentage on that happening here in November, because frankly, the Cardinals should be treating that possibility as a bonus rather than leaving an opening in their roster building for one of those such scenarios to materialize.