I’m not gonna lie to you. When the Toronto Blue Jays went scoreless for 11 consecutive innings and lost by a 6-5 score to the Los Angeles Dodgers in an interminable, exhausting, 18-inning competition of baseball and human endurance, I thought Team Canada was done. Cooked. Finished.
The Dodgers and their $400 million payroll would prevail – just as the overwhelming majority of neutral baseball fans expected. By taking Game 3, the Dodgers seized a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven World Series. Toronto had a very good season but wasn’t about to win three of the next four games if the fight lasted the full rounds.
Well, so much for my instincts.
To heck with my assumptions.
After absorbing the emotional blow of an 18-frame loss that required 6 hours and 39 minutes of focus and emotion – and losing VIP hitter George Springer in the process – the Blue Jays were shaken. Probably feeling wiped out. Surely, the end was near.
Wrong. The Blue Jays made a two-night stand at Dodger Stadium, hit back with consecutive victories, outscored the home team 12-3 and had the spoiled and entitled LA fans fleeing the ballpark and headed to the freeways.
Remember what Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said (as a joke) after his team swept overmatched Milwaukee from the National League Championship Series?
“Let’s get four more wins and really ruin baseball.”
That was the narrative all season – the Dodgers were wrecking baseball with their profligate spending. It wasn’t fair! They rigged the system by spending their way to domination.
Their massive payroll would lead to the damnation of major-league baseball as we know it.
Of course this isn’t true … but give the media a convenient narrative to pound over and over again – because it resonates with fans – and that narrative won’t go away.
Just like the Blue Jays.
If the Jays can return to their home province and win one of the final two games, they’d be the 10th different MLB franchise to win the World Series in the last 16 seasons. And to go back to the turn of the century, Toronto would become the 15th different MLB team to win the World Series since 2000.
But … the sport is ruined? No. Not yet. There are problems, sure. There will be a huge problem if, as expected, commissioner Rob Manfred and the greedy owners attempt to shut the game down to force the players into accepting a salary cap.
For now, let’s keep it in the moment. Unless the Dodgers can rally for two consecutive wins – we can agree on this much: their 2025 season will be ruined.
Before I offer my list of why the Blue Jays have hit, pitched, fielded, managed and grinded their way to a 3-2 World Series lead, I think I should point out one little thing. This series isn’t over.
The Dodgers will send their finest starting pitcher – Yoshinobu Yamamoto – after Toronto in Game 6 Friday night. In his first start of this series, Yamamoto controlled the dangerous Blue Jays lineup over the full nine innings in a fantastic show of Game 2 mastery. If the Dodgers can hold off the Blue Jays in Game 6, they can turn to a combination of Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in Game 7.
The Blue Jays will be ready. The deflated Dodgers? Not sure. But they just need a confidence boost to recover and counterattack, and Game 6 presents that opportunity.
Here’s why the Blue Jays have the lead and the momentum.
1. The starting pitching in Games 4 and 5.
In their two straight wins, the Blue Jays got a combined 12 and ⅔ innings from eight-year veteran Shane Bieber and the phenomenal rookie Trent Yesavage, who shut the Dodgers down by allowing only two earned runs, total. That’s a 1.45 ERA. On the other side, the acclaimed and incredibly wealthy combination of Ohtani and Blake Snell were smashed for a 6.39 ERA in giving up nine earned runs in 12 and ⅔.
Yesavage set a MLB postseason record for a rookie with his 12 strikeouts in seven innings. It was his first major-league road start, and he owned the October stage.
2. The Blue Jays have done much better against LA starting pitchers than any postseason opponent.
In the NL playoffs, Los Angeles starting pitchers had a 1.32 ERA against Cincinnati, a 2.45 ERA against Philadelphia, and an 0.63 vs. Milwaukee. But through five games those LA starters have been popped for a 4.88 ERA by Toronto.
Sure, Yamamoto was nicked for only one run in nine innings in Game 2. But in the four combined starts made against the Blue Jays by Snell, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow, they were pounded for 16 earned runs and five homers in 22 and ⅓ innings. (6.44 ERA.)
The Dodger starting pitchers collectively dominated the Reds, Phillies and Brewers with an intense 33.4 percent strikeout rate. But their strikeout rate against the Blue Jays is only 23% so far. That’s a big deal.
3. In what qualifies as an upset – based on expectations – Toronto’s starting pitchers have outperformed LA’s starting pitchers (as a group) through the first five games.
Bieber, Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer have a 3.29 in five starts, have collectively held the Dodgers to a .202 batting average, and have sizzled for a 27% strikeout rate against LA batters. The Blue Jays have a very good 3.32 ERA in 16 postseason games.
4. Toronto’s impressive bat-to-ball skills are paying off. Just as it did during the regular season.
In winning 94 games and finishing first in the NL East, the Blue Jays were a team of tough outs. They made pitchers work. They didn’t succumb to bad habits, or stupid tendencies, at the plate.
In their 162 regular-season games, the Blue Jay hitters had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (17.8%), had the second-best contact rate against strikes (87.8%), the second-lowest swinging strike rate (9.4%), led the majors in overall contact rate (81%), and led the majors with the lowest percentage of swinging strikes and called strikes (combined) at 25%. And only six MLB teams chased fewer pitches out of the strike zone than Toronto.
Those good habits have been on display this postseason, with the Blue Jays putting together a large total of quality at-bats that keeps their hitters alive and in the box instead of failing with a lack of plate discipline.
Because of that, the Blue Jays have the best batting average (.284), on-base percentage (.350), slugging percentage (.477), OPS (.827) of any team that competed in this postseason.
Toronto’s wRC+ for the postseason stands at 29 percent above league average offensively. What does that mean? Well, Over the last 10 postseasons, 31 teams have amassed 400 or more plate appearances in a single postseason. And Toronto’s 129 wRC+ is the best of the lot.
And this: over the last 10 postseasons, Toronto’s current strikeout rate in the tournament is an impressively low 16.3 percent. In fact, that’s the lowest among 85 playoff participants that had at least 100 postseason plate appearances over the last 10 years.
5. The Dodgers’ bullpen is an abomination. An expensive disaster.
This season the Dodgers invested $51 million in paying their relievers. That total includes $18.5 million in 2025 salaries given to injured relievers – including Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates – who aren’t on the active roster. In LA’s four losses this postseason, the bullpen was ravaged for an 8.77 ERA in 13 and ⅓ innings.
The LAD bullpen was outstanding in the Game 3 marathon – but that was clearly an outlier. A fluke. Reality slammed the Dodgers again in Games 4 and 5. How the hell can a team with a $400 million payroll have such a disgracefully poor bullpen? Toronto’s bullpen isn’t perfect, but it’s performed well with a 2.81 ERA over the first five games.
6. The collection of Los Angeles hitters has slowed offensively.
In breezing through the NL playoffs with a 9-1 record, the Dodger hitters supplied enough offense in support of their blazing starting pitchers. Though the average of 4.6 runs per game wasn’t anything extraordinary, the Dodgers did put up a .340 onbase percentage, .430 slug, and .770 OPS. And LA volleyed 33 extra-base hits in the 10 games.
The LA bats are quiet in the World Series. In the first five games the Dodgers batted .201, had a poor .296 onbase percentage, slugged a below average .354, and managed a .651 OPS. Their hitters also have a 25.3 percent strikeout rate. And the team’s wRC+ is 21 percent below league average offensively – compared to the Toronto hitters being 29 percent above average offensively.
Yes. It is true. Toronto has been 50 percent better than Los Angeles offensively during this World Series. That’s a shocking number. And this carries over to performance with runners in scoring position: LA is 6 for 30 (.200) and Toronto is 11 for 39 (.282.)
Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith, Enrique Hernandez, Andy Pages and Alex Call have combined for a .159 batting average, nine RBIs, and a 30 percent strikeout rate in 139 plate appearances.
In the last two games, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani combined for two hits in 14 at-bats and struck out seven times.
No surprise, then, to see the Dodgers score only four runs in the last 29 innings.
On the other side, the Blue Jays have benefited from the substantial production turned in by Vlad Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement and George Springer (before his injury.) Those seven hitters have combined for 42 hits, 16 walks, six homers, 23 RBIs and 22 runs scored.
I underestimated a Toronto team that won 94 games, erased the Yankees’ eight-game lead to capture a challenging division, and rallied for the most comeback wins in the majors. But I don’t think the Dodgers plan on rolling over, so the next game (or two) should be interesting.
Thanks for reading … You can check out my column yesterday on Mizzou Football coach Eli Drinkwitz by clicking HERE!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
During the baseball season Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and Randy Karraker.