The Toronto Blue Jays are headed back to the World Series for the first time since 1993, and as a reward they have a chance to upset the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Or, metaphorically speaking, the Blue Jays have a chance to avoid getting their teeth punched out.
It should be a fun and colorful World Series. And hello again, Max Scherzer. Out Town’s future Hall of Fame, who may have saved Toronto’s season with his attack-dog performance in ALCS Game 6, now gets a chance to compete in his fourth World Series. That’s four World Series for four different teams: The Tigers in 2012, the world-champion Nationals in 2019, the Rangers in 2023, and the Blue Jays now.
But this column isn’t written as a World Series preview. I’ll get to that later in the week, and I’ll keep it short and simple.
For now, I want to present some evidence, an example, of a successful rebuild.
No two rebuilds are alike. Some are more drastic than others. Some require less time to complete than anticipated. Some rebuilds are tear-it-all-apart clear-outs. Other rebuilds are aggressive but more measured.
Chaim Bloom, the new president of baseball operations, will make a lot of his decisions based on the trade value of Cardinals that he makes available for trades. That seems logical to me. But we know he’ll have to move a couple of left-handed hitters.
I’m not trying to make the case that St. Louis will reconstruct or refurbish in a way that matches the Toronto approach.
In fact there are major differences. The Blue Jays, even after announcing the plan to rebuild, still maintained a top-12 payroll in 2017 and 2018 before dropping to 20th in 2019. And the spending increased when it was time to emerge from the rebuild and win again. More on that later.
But what I’ve learned is that a rebuild will work, and it doesn’t require five years. Teams go about this differently, and that’s fine.
Some background on the Blue Jays and how they rebuilt their team into a championship-caliber contender.
I'll go with the quick-hit style here.
– Won the World Series in 1992 and ‘93.
– Went 21 consecutive seasons (1994-2014) without making the playoffs, flopping to a .490 winning percentage along the way in a horrendous slide from baseball’s summit.
– The Blue Jays finally returned to the postseason in 2015 and 2016, but were eliminated in the ALCS both times. That was a lively, talented team filled with big personalities. It was also a team that got old in a hurry.
– From 2017 through 2019, Toronto had a .444 winning percentage that ranked 22nd in the majors. Hmmm … from 2023 through 2025 your St. Louis Cardinals ranked 22nd in the majors in winning percentage.
– The Blue Jays decided to rebuild. But they already were coming around on that idea, anyway, because their 2015-2016 roster core was aging.
– So Canada’s only MLB franchise began an aggressive push to accumulate young talent, and a next-generation star, and soon focused on a centerpiece: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
– Toronto outbid several MLB franchises to win a bidding showdown for Guerrero, signing him to a $3.9 million bonus at age 16 in the summer of 2015. Later on, the Jays made another outstanding international signing to secure future catcher Alejandro Kirk (Mexico) who has been a two-time All-Star for them.
– Other notable international signings during this phase included outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catcher Gabriel Moreno. The latter two players were dealt to Arizona for gold-glove winning outfielder Daulton Varsho, who slugged .548 for the Jays this season.
– The Jays hit the jackpot because Guerrero is not only a true star, and not only the adored face of the franchise, but he also agreed to stay. Before the start of the 2026 season, Guerrero and the Blue Jays agreed to a 14-year contract extension worth $500 million. The deal included a $325 million signing bonus. Their charismatic first baseman is still only 26 years old.
– The Blue Jays haven’t drafted very well, and that’s unusual for a rebuilding team. Infielder Cavan Biggio went bust, but Toronto did well by choosing shortstop Bo Bichette, starting pitcher Alek Manoah, and a potential future rotation ace in Trey Yesavage. Again, the early forays into free agency compensated for the swings and misses in the draft.
– Did the Blue Jays move aging veterans to lower payroll costs and reduce the roster deadwood? You bet they did. And that was smart.
– These notable Toronto players were allowed to walk as free agents or traded away from 2016 through 2019: third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, slugger Jose Bautista, third baseman Josh Donaldson, starting pitcher Marco Estrada, catcher Russell Martin, center fielder Kevin Pillar, starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. And there were others.
– When the Blue Jays front office believed the team was primed to win again, they proceeded by spending substantial money to add necessary free-agent pieces such as outfielder George Springer (6 years, $150 million), starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (5 years, $110 million), closer Jeff Hoffman (3 years, $33 million), and outfielder Anthony Santander (5 years, $92.5 million.)
-- Question: Will the Cardinals do the same when they’re getting close to contending again? That’s a credibility check that owner Bill DeWitt, Jr. will have to pass. But he’s indicated a willingness to do so. A rebuild also includes, by extension, what ownership-management is willing to do when the rebuilding is nearly completed.
– The Blue Jays rebuilt, then ramped up. It wasn’t just the big-ticket signings. Toronto had an eye for identifying valuable role players or part-time starters and you can find them all over their roster.
– Examples are Infielder Ernie Clement, third-baseman and OF Addison Barger, OF Nathan Lukes, reliever Mason Fluharty, and reliever Brendon Little. That’s a partial list.
– The signing of Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5 million deal is a good example of Toronto’s “win now” approach for 2025.
– By 2019, Guerrero was in the starting lineup, along with Bichette and other younger Jays. That team lost 97 games … but look out.
– Toronto won 91 games in 2021 but didn’t make the playoffs.
– The franchise returned to the postseason in 2022 and 2023 but lost in the wild-card round each year.
– The Blue Jays went in reverse in 2024, winning only 74 games, mostly because of a bullpen implosion that led to a 19-30 record in one-run decisions.
– The Jays also went all-out in the attempt to sign free-agent Shohei Ohtani before the 2024 season – not doing much else – and that failed pursuit left them with a thin roster. They bolstered the roster before 2025, and here they are. World Series Game 1 is Friday night in Toronto.
– The Blue Jays are managed by John Schneider. He’s spent every day of his professional baseball career with Toronto after being drafted by the team in 2002. He was a minor-league catcher, minor-league catching coach, minor-league manager, major-league coach and earned the chance at the big-league managing job.
– That’s another similarity with the Cardinals, who hired Oli Marmol as manager and have kept him in the job instead of tossing him aside to please hostile fans or hire a celebrity manager to sell tickets. Marmol has spent every day in pro ball working for the Cardinals. And while something like that is appreciated by fans in Toronto, this doesn't apply to Marmol in St. Louis.
– The Blue Jays could have fired Schneider after the disappointing 2024 season but stayed with him because he did such a good job when the team went through the rebuilding process – and the players love him. Schneider led the 2025 Blue Jays to 98 wins, the AL East title, and the AL pennant. But it won’t be easy to take down the Dodgers. Chaim Bloom will stay with Marmol at least through 2026.
– Money? Definitely a factor in the Blue Jays' resurgence. 2025 Toronto’s end-of-season 40 man payroll was $254.5 million, which ranks 5th in the majors. That was an increase of $36 million from 2024. If we use the competitive-balance tax payroll for 2025, Toronto's investment reaches $279 million, also 5th in MLB. The Blue Jays are in a unique situation as Canada's only MLB team and large-market advantage.
-- Will the Cardinals do something similar when it’s winning time? I think so -- but the payroll won't grow to $279 million.
-- But continued payroll investment while rebuilding (Toronto) is significantly different than the way the Cardinals apparently will handle their own rebuild.
– The Cardinals' drafts and improving player-development trajectory should result in a transfusion of talent for the big-league roster. They’re making headway as FanGraphs recently chose the Cardinals as having the No. 1 farm system in the majors.
– What the Cardinals don’t have is their own version of Vlad Guerrero Jr. And that’s a big deal. And a big void. It's a helluva lot easier to complete a successful rebuild when a rare talent like Guerrero is the starting point.
– I think Bloom will be an aggressive trader and collect more assets for the near future. I think the Cardinals will have a much smarter and advanced front office operation which will likely shorten the length of the rebuild. I could be wrong. But Bloom's background is a strong fit for the Cardinals' current initiative.
– At some point, the DeWitts will have to increase the payroll size, and not by a small amount. It would be absolutely stupid to do that now … but eventually, the time will come.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show.