I don’t know when the Cardinals will reappear in the MLB postseason. Rebuilds do not have a finite time for completion.
But I do know this: the next time the Cardinals are set for a return to the playoffs, they’d better bring some home-run hitters.
Despite the unwavering and somewhat oddball protests about MLB teams putting too much emphasis on hitting home runs, these big-boom rockets have enormous influence in the outcome of a postseason game. The same applies to regular-season games, but I’ll focus on the playoffs for now.
Going into Tuesday, the team that out-homered the other side in a postseason game was 17-4. In 10 other games both sides were held without a homer or had the same number of long balls in the contest. But what matters most is this: the team with the higher home-run count in the game has an .810 winning percentage in the ‘25 tournament.
That’s a bit higher than the usual standard – but still in line in terms of the profound impact of home runs in postseason ball. Generally speaking – and this covers more than 100 MLB seasons – if your team bangs more home runs than opponents in a game, you guys will win around 75 percent of the time. There are fluctuations of course, but that 75% win probability covers postseason results as well.
For example: in 1968 – when home runs were way, way down because of dominant pitching – the team that out-homered opponents in a game won about 72 percent of the time.
Are there exceptions? Of course. And I wasn’t trying to make the case that the only way to get to the postseason – and win in the postseason – is by bashing home runs. For goodness sake, this is St. Louis.
Didn’t we all learn anything from watching those largely powerless Whitey Herzog teams – “the Runnin’ Redbirds – kill opponents with their speed, defense and pitching? There are always exceptions. But as sample sizes go, 100+ seasons of big-league baseball carries a lot more weight than a couple of snapshots in time.
I looked at the Cardinals teams managed by Tony La Russa. They had abundant power. The St. Louis pitchers – with help from both Busch Stadiums – did a good job of limiting home runs. Over his 16 seasons, La Russa’s hitters ranked 10th in the majors in home runs and were eighth in slugging percentage (.436.)
Looking back at the stats, I was surprised to see that TLR’s teams hit seven fewer home runs in 92 postseason games. But this was more about individual postseason games.
Those Cardinals encountered some of the great starting pitchers in the game at that time, and great starting pitchers can win their share of fights. TLR’s teams went 50-42 in the postseason but failed to homer in 62 percent of their losses. And in 36 of the 42 defeats the Cards hit no more than one home run.
On the flip side … TLR’s Redbirds delivered lots of power punches in their postseason tests. They were 35-16 (.686) when hitting one or more homers in a game – and 19-6 (.760) when slamming two-plus homers.
I apologize because I didn’t have time today to do game-by-game research in La Russa’s 92 postseason games. I’ll get around to it when I can. But I would expect to find that his power-rippled teams had a postseason winning percentage over 70 percent – at least! – when winning the home-run drive contest in postseason games.
And what happened when La Russa retired after winning the 2011 World Series? The Cardinals were successful, making the playoffs eight times under three different managers from 2012 through 2022. (I’m referring to Mike Matheny, Mike Shildt and Oli Marmol.)
The TLR teams had more power than the post-TLR teams, and that was reflected in their combined 25-33 postseason record under Mike Matheny, Mike Shildt and Oli Marmol.
Compared to what came later, the La Russa Cardinals averaged more home runs per postseason game from 1996 through 2011. And their slugging percentage was 40 percent higher than the St. Louis teams that won just a single NL pennant from 2012 through 2022.
One obvious takeaway: it helps to have Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, David Freese, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Lance Berkman, Reggie Sanders, JD Drew, Will Clark, Gary Gaetti, Brian Jordan, Ron Gant and Yadier Molina in on your various postseason lineup cards from 1996 through 2011.
And this is what concerns about the Cards’ future. Where will the power come from if Nolan Gorman and/or Jordan Walker fizzle out again?
Where are the future slugging stars? Well, there’s a potential hitting star in top prospect JJ Wetherholt, who has more power potential than we expected. There's Ivan Herrera, of course. Maybe prospect Joshua Baez, maybe prospect Rainiel Rodriguez. Maybe a long-shot prospect like Blaze Jordan. Perhaps Jesus Baez, acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade. I don’t know what to make of outfielder Chase Davis, STL’s first-round pick in 2023, who had a ho-hum season offensively this year at Double-A Springfield.
The Cardinals have a fantastic hitting prospect in future center fielder Ryan Mitchell, drafted out of high school a few months ago. But as of now, when looking at power, there are a lot of wishful-thinking maybes. Of course the Cardinals can trade for power or sign a free agent with power – but that free agent would have to be of the hidden-gam variety.
You might be thinking: there are other ways to win without hitting a barrage of home runs. I’m puzzled by folks who suggest the Cardinals should go for more high-contact rate guys who will put the ball in play instead of rolling up ghastly strikeout rates.
But …
The Cards are already doing that.
Consider these morsels from 2025:
* The Cardinals had the 11th lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 21.8 percent – yes, even with Walker and Gorman combining for a 33 percent strikeout rate in their 798 plate appearances.
* The Cards had the sixth-best overall contact rate in the majors at 78.2%
* They had the third-best contract rate (87.5%) on pitches in the strike zone.
* Only four MLB teams had a lower swinging-strike rate than the Cardinals in 2025.
And yeah, there may be a trend here. The Cardinals appear to be focused on drafting more high-contact hitters that possess more reliable plate discipline. The young Ryan Mitchell represents that philosophy. So does emerging outfield prospect Travis Honeyman, who has strong contact skills and loves to draw walks. And there are others like that.
What you’d like to see is a lineup that has power, plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play at a high rate. And you’d like to see more speed that can help manufacture runs. You’d like to see a Milwaukee-type of lineup, but with a little more power.
Chaim Bloom is on the case.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show.