Greetings, good day to you. And it’s a good day for some Bird Bytes. So let’s do it.
1. Project Runway Update: two relatively new cast members auditioning for future roles. I’m referring to infielders Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin. Both gentlemen are making a positive impression. More on details as I type along.
2. Saggese receives more attention than Fermin because he’s been prominent on the radar since president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acquired him from Texas at the 2023 trade deadline in a deal headlined by lefty St. Louis starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, an imminent free-agent.
3. I’m going to detour a bit to look at that trade and how it could turn out for the Cards. In addition to picking up Saggese, the Cardinals were excited to secure the power-pitching Tekoah Roby. Mozeliak added workhorse righty reliever Chris Stratton and gained lefty reliever John King, who did good work for the Cardinals before laboring through pitching-health issues this season.
With the focus on Roby and Saggese, this transaction could pay off nicely for the Cardinals over time. As he readies to step down and turn baseball operations over to Chaim Bloom, the Texas trade could end up on a list of Mozeliak’s best moves during his 18-year term in office.
4. Roby, a legit prospect, was having a strong 2025 season after adding two secondary pitches to go with his high-velo fastball and a snapping curveball. Roby’s mix in ‘25 also included a sinker, slider and changeup. Matt Pierpont – the Cards’ new pitching director – made an immediate impact in making Roby a more complete pitcher.
But … Roby ruptured an elbow ligament and was lost for the season after 16 starts. Roby, who just turned 24, probably won’t be ready, full go, until late 2026 or early 2027.
5. That could actually work in Roby’s longterm favor. He has a history of elbow miseries that caused frequent shutdowns during his development. If this plays out the way the Cardinals and Roby hope it will, the right-hander’ elbow problems will be solved in the aftermath of the surgical repairs.
Roby is loaded with talent. At Triple A Memphis earlier this season, Roby fired his way to a 3.10 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and a low 6% walk rate. The combination formed an excellent strikeout-walk of 4.58, and Roby’s adjusted ERA was 32 percent superior to the average. Before the injury, Roby was well on the way to a big-league promotion. Cardinals manager Oli Marmol is a big fan, telling me that Roby was the most impressive young pitcher he watched during the team’s 2025 spring-training camp.
6. OK, so what about Saggese? You can see the quick bat and his good baseball instincts. The Cardinals called Saggese up from Memphis a couple of times last season and he got into 18 games. Saggese has gained a lot more big-league experience in 2025, with the Cardinals turning to him as an injury plug-in for Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and Nolan Arenado. Through Tuesday’s win over the Giants, Saggese had played 35 games at second base, 29 at shortstop and 18 at third base. Brief recap: slightly below average in 208 innings at shortstop, slightly above average in 117 innings at third base, and a minus 3 defensive runs saved in 289 innings at second base. Pretty good for all of that moving around. Saggese’s positional versatility is a plus.
7. Saggese was a very good hitter while making his way through the minor leagues, and we’re starting to see why Mozeliak wanted him included in the Montgomery exchange. Saggese still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. The strikeout / swing-miss liability should improve over time. He should show more power as he acclimates to major-league pitching. He’s making progress.
8. In his 50 games and 189 plate appearances since the All-Star break, Saggese has a .272 average, .324 on-base percentage and .355 slug. His wRC+ is 7 percent below league average offensively since the break. But that doesn’t reflect the scope of his improvement. Here’s another positive stat: this season Saggese is 13 for 42 (.310) when hitting with runners in scoring position.
9. In Saggese’s last 13 games (through Tuesday) he went 17 for 52 (.327) with a .375 OBP and .462 slugging percentage. He’s drawing more walks, striking out less, and has clouted four doubles and a home run during the 13-game stretch. Per wRC+, Saggese was 37 percent above league average offensively since Sept. 9. And all Saggese’s 56 of his plate appearances since Sept. 9 have come at the shortstop position. That’s important.
10. Have the Cardinals found their No. 2 shortstop? Too soon to know. But Saggese’s late-season upturn has come at a good time. But top prospect JJ Wetherholt is due to arrive in 2026, and he can play second base, shortstop and third base. Wetherholt bats left. Saggese bats right. But Wetherholt projects as an immediate starter when the Cardinals elevate him to the big club.
11. Now, about Jose Fermin. I think he’s an intriguing player. He’s still in the organization nearly three years after the Cardinals purchased him from the Guardians. Fermin has consistently put up swell numbers over his nearly 2,000 plate appearances at the Triple A level. He’s also still only 26 years old. Up until 2025, Fermin hadn’t flashed much offense as a Cardinal, but that’s changed this season. It’s also important to remember that Fermin’s time in the majors has been more sporadic than steady. I would assume that makes it more difficult to thrive against MLB pitching.
12. Fermin has a .315 average, .403 on-base percentage and .463 slug in 63 plate appearances for the Cardinals this season. That small-sample size translates into 48 percent above league average offensively. Fermin doesn’t strike out much – only 14 percent this season for St. Louis – and that’s even better considering his 11% walk rate. Fermin has below-average bat speed, and his hard-hit rate is lacking. Fermin needs to have favorable batted-ball luck to post a good batting average. That didn’t go his way in 2023 or 2024, but it’s different this time around as evidenced by his .364 batting average on balls in play in 2025.
13. When a younger player is cast into a utility role at an early stage of his MLB career, all that matters is how he comes through (or not) when put into action. And Fermin has done an exceptional job of making himself useful and valuable. Example: this season he’s 5 for 13 (.385) with runners in scoring position. With RISP he’s reached base 50 percent of the time, smacked four doubles, slugged .538 and knocked home seven runs. That’s impressive. What this means for Fermin’s MLB future in St. Louis isn’t clear.
14. A big part of that depends on Nolan Arenado (traded?), Brendan Donovan (traded?), Nolan Gorman (traded?) in what could be a crowded St. Louis infield in 2026. Or maybe jobs will be open and available depending on how many guys are traded by Bloom. And of course there is the question of Wetherholt’s primary defensive position when he arrives on the bank of the Mississippi, not far from Busch Stadium. Not that JJ will be transported here by an actual riverboat. But he does have flair.
15. This season Fermin has played 13 games at second base, five at third base, and four in left field. He also had an adventurous turn one day in right field and isn’t experienced there. Did you notice what was missing? Fermin can be used at shortstop in an emergency, but that’s about it. Saggese can play shortstop. That flexibility matters in a roster-decision process. But we don’t know what’s coming this offseason, so the early speculation is meaningless.
THE FANTASTIC IVAN HERRERA FILE
I wanted to freshen up some numbers I used in a video earlier this week here at STL Sports Central … to go with other stuff I’m adding here.
— Since returning from a lower-back injury in late August of last season, Herrera has made 504 plate appearances over that time.
— Among the 182 MLB hitters that have at least 500 plate appearances since August 26 of last season, Herrera’s wRC+ is 46 percent above the league average offensively.
— And in that group of 182 hitters, only six have outperformed Herrera in overall offense since late last season. The seven are: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Juan Soto, George Springer and Kyle Schwarber.
— Herrera’s 146 wRC+ since last August 26 is superior to an extensive list of hitters that includes Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Bobby Witt Jr., Rafael Devers, Matt Olson, Ketel Marte, Manny Machado, Will Smith, Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Jackson Chourio, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Jazz Chisholm, Julio Rodriguez, Bo Bichette, Byron Buxton, Eugenio Suarez, Trea Turner, Matt Chapman, Josh Naylor, Brent Rooker, Kyle Stowers, Christian Yelich, James Wood, Gunnar Henderson and Spencer Torkelson.
Whew.
— Since Aug. 26 of last season, Herrera has batted .295 with a .386 on-base rate, .485 slugging percentage and an .871 OPS. Oh, and he’s struck out in only 18.3 percent of his plate appearances … while walking in 10 percent of his plate appearances.
— This month, through Tuesday, Herrera has 8 home runs in 73 at-bats. His teammates have 6 home runs in 590 at-bats. On average, Herrera has homered every 8.1 bats this month. His teammates, on average, have homered every 98.3 at bats. That’s nuts. But it's true.
— Entering Wednesday, Herrera is tied with Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh for most home runs (8) in September.
BULLPENNING
— In winning the first two games at San Francisco, manager Oli Marmol used eight relievers to cover 10 and ⅓ innings of relief over the two nights. JoJo Romero, Kyle Leahy, Matt Svanson, Riley O’Brien, John King, Ryan Fernandez, Jorge Alcala and Chris Roycroft combined for a 2.61 ERA and held the Giants to a .231 batting average, .250 onbase rate and .385 slug.
— Despite not having sturdy relievers Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz and Phil Maton to lean on since the MLB trade deadline, Marmol’s restocked bullpen ranks 4th among NL teams in ERA (3.69), 3rd in fielding independent ERA (3.64), 2nd in fewest home runs allowed per nine innings (0.74), 6th in strikeouts per nine innings (9.15) and 3rd in Win Probability Added.
— Over the last two seasons, the Cardinals are 115-18 when leading a game after six innings, 127-8 when up through seven innings, and 72-4 when taking a lead into the ninth inning.
— Marmol’s adept bullpen maneuvering is a huge reason why the Cardinals have one of the best records in the majors with a 55-42 mark in one-run games since the start of last season.
— And a strong bullpen is a reason for the Cardinals’ total of 39 comeback wins this season despite having a weak offense and inadequate starting pitching. Only five MLB teams have more comeback victories than St. Louis this season.
— Since the start of last season, based on run differential and other underlying factors, the Cardinals should have a 150-170 record for a winning percentage of .468. But their actual record is 161-159 for a winning percentage of .503. Tip o’ the cap to Marmol.
AN OUTSIDE VIEW OF THE CARDINALS
ESPN’s David Schoenfield gave the Cardinals a grade of “C minus” for the 2025 season.
“Meh,” Schoenfield wrote. “The Cardinals hung in the wild-card race longer than they probably should have for a team that ranks next-to-last in strikeout rate from their pitchers and just out of the cellar in home runs from their hitters.
“They did learn a few things about some of their young players, but the answers weren't all good ones: Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman probably aren't solutions as regulars; Victor Scott II can certainly play center field, but his bat is questionable; Ivan Herrera can hit but his catching days might be over after not playing behind the plate the final three months.
“The ‘meh’ factor has shown up in the attendance: Excluding the 2021 season when attendance was likely impacted by COVID-19, the Cardinals have their lowest per-game average since 1995 (and that was coming off the strike, so you really go back to 1984 for a lower attendance figure). Chaim Bloom takes over the baseball operations reins this offseason. He has his work cut out for him.”
Thanks for reading ...
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.