Game Information
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) vs Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Time: 7pm CT Friday
How to watch: YouTube
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 46.5
The Kansas City Chiefs kick off their season tonight in Brazil against their AFC West rival the Los Angeles Chargers at Arena Corinthians.
These teams tend to play very tight games. The Chiefs have won seven straight meetings, but six of those have been one-possession games, four of them have been by three points or less, and a fifth was decided in overtime.
There are several favorable trends pointing towards LA covering the spread tonight.
With those close games between the Chiefs and Chargers, while Kansas City tends to win, the Chargers have covered more times than not. Patrick Mahomes is only 2-5-1 against the spread when facing Justin Herbert.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 as an NFL head coach. He’s also 63% ATS overall in his NFL coaching career.
And the narrative of a Super Bowl hangover for the loser has been a real thing, so the Chiefs will be looking to stave off that trend tonight. Over the last 25 years, the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous season is 6-19 ATS in Week 1 - including the Chiefs winning but failing to cover in Week 1 after losing the Super Bowl to the Buccaneers in 2021.
If this line was 3.5, I would recommend a play on the Chargers. But at the key number of 3, I’m having a difficult time betting against Mahomes here.
The play I like most for this game is the over, and the main reason for that is where this game is taking place.
We saw the Eagles and Packers play a year ago in Brazil at this same stadium, which has a field (or pitch) made for soccer. Players were slipping often during the game, and that typically gives an advantage to the offense and can lead to easy touchdowns.
There were 63 points scored in that game between the Eagles and Packers. Meanwhile those teams met four months later in the playoffs in Philadelphia, and there were only 32 points scored.
The Chiefs are looking to explode for more downfield passing plays this year after having a more methodical attack the last couple seasons. I think they’ll be able to do that tonight on a slippery field, and look for the Chargers to keep up to get this game over the total.
Pick: Over 46.5 at -118 on DraftKings (bet to 47)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer