Hello again, and welcome to a new week of the Redbird Review here at STL Sports Central.
In order, my five were Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Andre Pallante. Some took issue with Nootbaar being on the list.
Why? For the usual reason: Nootbaar was on a roll, having batted .352 with an .875 OPS over a 13-game turn-up. And when Nootbaar heats up, the hyperventilating among his admirers turns extreme. Never mind that, before the hot streak, Noot batted .190 with a .599 OPS.
Anyway, today I want to present another list … I’m not sure what to call it … so maybe I’ll just call it the “I’m Not Sure” list.
I’m Not Sure About These 5 Cardinals
1. Ivan Herrera: In 322 plate appearances this season Herrera has banged out a .279 average, .355 onbase percentage, .420 slug and .776 OPS. That puts him 19 percent above league average offensively in 2025.
Since returning from his second IL stay of the season on July 13, Herrera is batting .233 with a .293 slug and .607 OPS. In his last 27 games, he's hit .216 with a .265 slug.
Herrera’s power has disconnected; he’s homered only twice in his last 160 plate appearances. And remember the great experiment of putting Herrera in left field? Well, he’s made four starts there – the first on July 28, and most recently on Aug. 13.
Since reentering the lineup on July 13, Herrera has a .303 average and .455 slugging percentage on sinkers.
But he hasn’t been effective against breaking pitches or offspeed stuff – hitting a combined .197 against those offerings with just extra-base hit and 24 strikeouts in 66 at-bats.
Herrera, who bats right, is underperforming against right-handed pitching since his return on July 13, batting .212 with a .508 OPS. Per wRC+, he’s 49% below league average against RHP in his last 35 games.
That said, Herrera continues to hit the ball hard, so we shouldn’t dismiss the luck factor. Since July 13 he has an overall hard-hit rate of 50.5 percent including a 52.7% rate against righties.
Big problem: Herrera has a 56.6 percent ground-ball rate since July 13. The hard contact rate is great – but the impact is reduced by so many grounders.
2. Nolan Gorman: I’ve been praising his improvement for more than a month now, and so let’s recap and update. But first I’ll tell you what I’m not sure of: can we trust his current three-month stretch of terrific – and comically overlooked performance on offense?
Gorman got off to a horrendous start this season. Part of it was missing 10 days early on with a mild hamstring strain. The other (and most important) reason was not getting enough plate appearances from manager Oli Marmol.
At the end of May Gorman had only 106 plate appearances which ranked 10th among the 11 Cards that had at least 100 PA in the first two months. And Gorman was dead last among the 11 in batting average (.189), onbase percentage (.283), slugging pct. (.300), OPS (.583), wRC+ (64), and homers (1). Based on his wRC+, Gorman was 36% below league average offensively.
Gorman has been a much different hitter. Instead of ranking 11th and dead last in all of those offensive categories, Gorman ranks first in walk rate and is No. 2 in onbase percentage (.352), slugging (.476), OPS (.828), home runs (11), wRC+ (133), and Isolated Power (.229.) That wRC+ puts Gorman 33 percent above league average offensively.
And while Gorman’s strikeout rate for the season is still on the high side, it is still 8.2 percent lower than it was in 2024.
OK, so why am I unsure about Gorman, even though his plate discipline has improved over the last three months? Why am I still unsure about this when Gorman (since June 1) has a higher batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ than Brendan Donovan?
And why are so many fans and media in this town completely – and incomprehensibly – so oblivious to Gorman’s positive and encouraging trends?
In a word: inconsistency. I think I trust Gorman a lot more than others do, but I must acknowledge something here … his career unpredictability and extreme streaks creates a mental block. It’s difficult to know if this is for real.
That said, Gorman is enjoying the most consistent stretch of his major-league career right now.
As a rookie in 2022, he had an above-average offensive performance in two of five months – but those two months were spread apart from each other. (May, and July.)
In 2023, Gorman performed above average offensively in four of his six months – but never had three positive months in a row.
In 2024, two of Gorman’s five months were above average offensively – but occurred in May and July.
Gorman is having his best continuous three-month run as a big-league hitter, but he’ll have to prove himself over a longer period of time.
3. Matthew Liberatore: I believe in his talent and competitiveness over the long haul. But the lefty has gone through two wildly different segments in his first MLB season as a full-time starting pitcher.
First 10 starts … last 13 starts
ERA: 2.73 … 5.52
FIP: 2.56 … 5.07
Strikeout rate: 21.5% … 15%
Walk rate: 3.4% … 8.2%
HR rate: 0.46 per 9 IP … 1.42 per 9
Average game score: 61 … 42
Innings per start: 5.9 … 4.8
Average on balls in play: .283 … .307
(The average game score is 50.)
The drop in quality is summed up perfectly by Libby’s downward trend in average game score. We can also see the lowering of his strikeout rate, the increase in walks, and a sizable uptick in home runs allowed. I think he’ll be more prepared to handle the demand of making 30+ starts in a season going forward.
4. Kyle Leahy: I’m not sure if he’ll receive a legitimate opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2026.
Leahy has been a St. Louis bullpen workhorse along the lines of Andrew Kittredge, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist, Matt Bowman, Seunghwan Oh, Giovanny Gallegos, Steve Kline, John Brebbia and many other setup relievers during the last 25 seasons of Cards baseball.
The righthander already has made 50 appearances covering 68 and ⅓ innings this season. If Leahy works another 11 and ⅔ innings this season, he’ll be one of only 10 Cardinal relievers to pitch at least 80 innings in a season during the 30-season era of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s ownership.
Leahy has pitched more than an inning in 25 of his 50 appearances and has maintained a good (3.12) ERA. That said, the heavy-duty relief has worn Leahy down at times.
Over May and June this season, his strikeout rate declined to 15.8 percent, and his walk rate spiked to 9 percent, and opponents hit him for a .295 average, .350 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. And Leahy has an inflated 4.58 ERA over his last 28 relief assignments.
Heavy-duty relievers tend to break, and I hate to think about Leahy suffering the same fate. He can go after hitters with a six-pitch assortment: four-seam fastball, slider, curve, sweeper, changeup and slider.
That variety of pitch mixing works to a starter’s advantage, so I hope Leahy receives an opportunity to win a rotation spot and pitch every fifth or sixth day. Otherwise – if Leahy stays in the bullpen – I fear he’ll burn out.
5. Matt Svanson: with the Cardinals starting over in the closer role, does Svanson profile as the heir apparent to Ryan Helsley?
Well, I’m not sure about that – but only because of his short major-league inexperience. But this rookie seemingly has what it takes to evolve into a strong closer candidate.
When Svanson has pitched in the seventh, eighth or ninth inning this season, he’s trucked to a 1.59 ERA, posted an excellent 0.81 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .129 batting average.
And the big guy has gotten stronger – not weaker – as the Cardinals got deeper into the season. In nine relief gigs in August before Monday, Svanson had an 0.63 ERA and 35 percent strikeout rate in 14 and ⅓ innings. And 16 of his 28 appearances have covered more than an inning.
Give credit to Cardinals president of baseball president John Mozeliak for making a helluva deal by sending reserve shortstop Paul DeJong to Toronto for Svanson at the 2023 trade deadline.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch.
Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast at least once per week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.