I’ve been pondering a few things about the 2025 Cardinals, so let’s go with a first in a series that will look at different aspects of the team.
Here are the five most disappointing Cardinals, so far, in 2025 …
1. Sonny Gray: He isn’t flat-out awful, but that isn’t the point. This is all relative to talent and expectations. Gray is supposed to perform as a high-level starting pitcher, and he’s drifted away from that classification.
I must revisit 2024, Gray’s first season as a Cardinal. He certainly pitched worthy of the “ace” title during the first three months of 2024, only to degrade over the final three months.
In his final 13 starts of ‘24 season, Gray got punched for a 4.81 ERA, ranked 75th among MLB starters in home runs yielded per nine innings, and had an adjusted ERA that was 19 percent below league average for starters. Gray also had a 5.20 ERA in 12 road starts last year.
The erratic patterns have continued in 2025. Gray has a 4.33 for the season with an adjusted ERA that’s five percent below the league average for starters.
And once again, for the second consecutive season, his effectiveness has cracked since the start of July. In his last 10 starts Gray has a 6.10 ERA and an adjusted ERA that’s 48 percent below the league average for starting pitchers.
How bad is this? Well, among 90 major-league starters that have worked at least 40 innings since July 1, Gray’s adjusted ERA ranks 83rd, and his standard ERA is 81st. And Gray has another case of the suitcase blues; his road ERA this season is 5.24.
Gray has done little to reinforce a STL rotation that ranks 28th in starting-pitching ERA since June 30. In fact, Gray’s 6.10 ERA over that time has virtually matched the team’s 6.12 ERA for starting pitching.
In Gray’s backloaded three-year contract that he signed before 2024, he’s being paid $25 million this season and will make $35 million next season at age 36. How much trade value will Gray have before 2026, and is he willing to waive his no-trade value?
2. Nolan Arenado: OK, yes, he still plays good defense. And no one denies his value with the range and glove work at third base. That said, his defense isn’t as sharp or rangy in 2025, and that’s just another sign of his advancing baseball age and physical limitations.
Arenado’s bat is frequently dormant. This season, per wRC+, Arenado has produced offense that’s 17 percent below league average.
During the expansion era, which began in 1961, individual Cardinals’ third basemen have taken a minimum 350 plate appearances in a season a total of 74 times. And in those 74 instances Arenado’s current slugging percentage (.366) would rank 58th, his wRC+ would rank 59th, and his .660 OPS would be 63rd.
After peaking with a .533 slug and .891 OPS in 2022, Arenado’s numbers in 2025 represent a 167-point drop in slugging, and a 231-point drop in OPS.
Arenado is on the IL with a shoulder strain, and there’s no set timetable for a return. He rejected a trade to the Astros last season, and still can veto any trade.
Arenado’s contract runs through 2027, and he’s owed $42 million guaranteed over the next two seasons. He will be 35 years old next season, and 36 in the season after that. At this point I can’t imagine there would be much of a market for his services. This trade that sent him to St. Louis before 2021 has aged poorly, and it’s a shame.
But Arenado is a proud man, and he will try everything within his power to defy the ravages of time. I respect that. Let’s play some George Jones for Nado.
“I ain't ready for the junkyard yet
'Cause I still feel like a new corvette
It might take a little longer, but I'll get there
Well, I don't need your rockin' chair"
3. Jordan Walker: He perked up for a while, but it didn’t last, which is pretty much the way it’s been for the 23-year old right fielder over the last two seasons. In his previous nine games through Aug. 20, Walker went 4 for 29 (.138) with a .391 OPS and 40.6 percent strikeout rate.
For the season, among 101 MLB outfielders who have at least 250 plate appearances, Walker ranks 99th wRC+, 99th in Wins Above Replacement, 99th in strikeout rate, 98th in OPS, 84th in batting average, 94th in on-base percentage, and 96th in slugging.
Walker’s slash line for 2025 is .229/.286/.321 with a .607 OPS and 31.6 percent strikeout rate. Walker is minus 8 in defensive runs saved; that ranks 18th among 19 rightfielders that have played a minimum 615 innings.
With so much going wrong, Walker is minus 0.7 WAR puts below the replacement level. But among all MLB position players that have at least 250 plate appearances this season, Walker’s WAR ranks No. 259 on a list of 266.
4. Lars Nootbaar: He’s rebounding from an extensive and extremely frosty hitting slump, and another injury, and over his last 12 games through Thursday, Noot sprayed enough hits for a .360 average and .905 OPS … which got him into place to score runs and drive in six other runs. He looks good! Yes. Looks good. But how many times have we said that, only to follow him onto the Injured List? Wait? How can we “follow” him onto the Injured list? Well, when Nootbaar goes to the IL, we get ILL.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Noot has gone to the IL six times for a total of 123 missed days in season. Those absences reduce a dude’s impact.
No doubt, Nootbaar provides a significant impact when he’s able to saddle up and get to the starting gate.
Here’s what I’m talking about:
– Nootbaar gets on base exactly one time in a game during his career: Cardinals are 87-72.
– Nootbaar scores exactly one run in a game during his career: Cardinals are 90-60.
– Nootbaar drives in exactly one run in a game during his career: Cardinals are 54-41.
– Nootbaar hits exactly one homer in a game during his career: Cards are 37-16.
When I say Noot is disappointing, the disappointment is based on the times he’s unable to saddle up. Because when he plays, good things tend to happen. Not always, of course. But enough times to make a positive difference for this offense.
5. Andre Pallante: I was impressed by his 2024. Pallante was doing a terrible job as a reliever, and asked manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake if he could work on becoming a starting pitcher after his demotion to Triple A Memphis. They agreed.
After building up the stamina to handle a starter’s innings, Pallante entered the big-league rotation on May 29 of last year. It was a successful transition. Pallante had a 3.56 ERA in 20 starts, didn’t give up many home-run shots, and posted an above-average Game Score of 53 in the 20 assignments.
I’m not saying Pallante was great, and we know that he isn’t a bully who gets hitters to swing and miss. But for the back end of the rotation? Pallante was fine.
I looked forward to seeing how Pallante would do in his follow-up rotation opportunity in 2025.
The answer: pretty much a disaster. Pallante’s current 5.17 ERA ranks 50th among 55 MLB starters that have worked enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. His adjusted ERA – 26 percent below league average – is 51st among the 55.
In eight starts since July 9, Pallante has been bludgeoned for a 7.71 ERA that is the absolute worst in the majors among the 72 starters that have pitched at least 36 innings over that time.
Since the beginning of July, the Cardinals have two bottom-five starting pitchers in the majors for worst ERA: Pallante (6.47) and Gray (6.10.)
Thanks for reading, and have a wonderful weekend!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast at least once per week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment with Bernie and Randy Karraker every Friday morning at 10:30 on STL Sports Central.