The Cardinals gave late-night viewers an entertaining 3-2 win over the Dodgers Monday in the opener of a three-game series at Chavez Ravine. It didn't go so well on Tuesday with Miles Mikolas tossing batting practice to help the Dodgers get out of their team hitting slump. At least the Cardinals scored some runs -- too little, too late kind of runs -- in the 10-6 loss.
I want to talk about the St. Louis offense, and the stats I'll provide were compiled after Monday's game so I could have a 57-57 split in games played on the schedule. Meaning the first 57, then the next 57.
Through their first 114 games the Cardinals were shut out 12 times, second most in the majors. And they’ve scored no more than 1 run in 29 games, which is tied for the most in MLB.
The Cardinals had surprisingly good offense through their first 57 games of 2025, ranking no worse than 11th in the majors in the most important hitting categories through May 30.
That’s changed, significantly, over their last 57 games. Factually, the Cardinals have among the worst offenses since May 31.
And this 57-57 split really shows us how much the Cards offense has degenerated.
Let’s take a look, eh?
RUNS PER GAME
First 57 games: 4.7 per game, 8th in MLB
Last 57 games: 3.8 per game, 24th
BATTING AVERAGE
First 57 games: .261, second in MLB
Last 57 games: .236, 27th
ONBASE PERCENTAGE
First 57 games: .331, 6th in MLB
Last 57 games: .305, 27th
SLUGGING PERCENTAGE
First 57 games: .401, 11th in MLB
Last 57 games: .374, 27th
ONBASE + SLUGGING
First 57 games: .732, 10th in MLB
Last 57 games: .680, 28th
EXTRA BASE HITS
First 57 games: 11th in MLB
Last 57 games: 25th
BATTING AVERAGE, RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION
First 57 games: .268, 5th in MLB
Last 57 games: .238, 20th
TIMES SHUT OUT
First 57 games: 2, tied for third fewest in MLB.
Last 57 games: 10, most times in MLB.
SCORED 3 OR FEWER RUNS
First 57 games: 20 times, third fewest in MLB.
Last 57 games: 29 times, third most in MLB.
TEAM RECORD
First 57 games: 32-25, .561.
Last 57 games: 25-32, .439.
RUN DIFFERENTIAL
First 57 games: plus 35, 8th best in MLB
Last 57 games: minus 47, 4th worst in MLB.
A stark and disturbing difference, yes?
We’ve seen a substantial drop in quality and production in counting stats, rate stats, and situational hitting.
The Cardinals were a Top 10 offense in the majors over their first 57 games – and are a bottom seven offense in their last 57. That’s a major swing.
Combine that with a starting rotation that ranks 28th in MLB in ERA over the last 57 games, and that’s a formula for losing … and losing a lot … and drifting out of postseason contention.
Why did this happen? For now, I want to focus solely on the offense.
I have a few theories…
1. THE TALENT: It isn’t good enough, period. The weaknesses have been exposed. Some dudes (like Victor Scott) outperformed expectations early on but couldn’t sustain it. The same goes for Lars Nootbaar, who has been awful since the start of May. The Cardinals keep waiting and waiting for the payoff with guys like Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. And the Cardinals as a team have received horrendous results offensively at two specific positions: center field and catcher. Scott has obvious defensive value, and is still developing offensively. More on this in the next section.
2. DEFENSE-FIRST PRIORITY AND WEAK DEPTH: If the Cardinals want to boost the offense in center field by giving regular starts to another player – well, who would that be? Please don’t say Nootbaar. He’s hit .208 with a .634 OPS with an inflated strikeout rate since the end of April. And if you play Noot in center, he’ll crack like cheap porcelain. Nootbaar started in center in Tuesday's loss at LA and went 2 for 4, so maybe we'll see him get more turns there. But given manager Oli Marmol's strong emphasis on defense, I doubt we'll see Scott seated on the bench for a lot of games. Other than Nootbaar, the next options are Garrett Hampson? Michael Siani.
At some point, the Cardinals will have to squeeze more offense at the CF position. Since the start of last season St. Louis center fielders are 33 percent below league average offensively (per wRC), rank 30th in slugging percentage (.289) and OPS (.578) and have nine homers in 888 at-bats – an average of one homer every 98.6 at-bats.
This would never happen in a smart and/or ambitious baseball operation that had higher standards. It’s fine to prioritize defense, but other teams do this and still manage to go with center fielders who can supply decent offense.
The same applies to the cacher position. Among MLB catchers that have at least 270 plate appearances this season, Pedro Pages ranks at the bottom with a pathetic wRC+ that puts him 43 percent below league average offensively.
The worst wRC+ put up by Yadier Molina came in his age 23 season, and he was 46 percent below league average. But for goodness sake, this man was YADIER MOLINA. And with all due respect to Pages, let’s not sit here and act like Pages is the equivalent of Molina defensively and therefore has to be in there in 8 out of every 10 starts -- or else the starting pitchers would fall apart! Well, they’ve already fallen apart.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball despite ranking 23rd in payroll. The Brewers love defense, too. In fact, they have 25 defensive runs saved this season – which is 14 more than the Cardinals. The difference? The Brewers have an offense.
3. BORING REDUNDANCY
Too many left-handed hitters, with some being slotted at DH, and only one (Alec Burleson) is 20 percent above league average offensively per wRC+. And with Burleson in a mini-slump as I update this -- he's 3 for his last 24 -- he's dropped below 20 percent above average to 19%. No St. Louis left-handed bat ranks among the top 50 MLB hitters in OPS, right-handed batters included. (Minimum 350 plate appearances.) Burleson ranks 59th. If you have similar players who basically fit into the same profile offensively – well, how do you put a consistently good offense on the field? As a group, STL’s left-handed hitters rank 21st in slugging and are slightly below league average in OPS. That is a problem. As we know the Cards are especially challenged to generate offense against lefty pitchers. With the imbalance among position players, the Cardinals rank 3rd in the majors for most plate appearances (528) by LH batters against LH pitchers. The results: .217 average, .294 OBP, .312 slug, .606 OPS. This is ridiculous and can't go on. Get on the case, Chaim Bloom! Mozeliak's comically bad roster construction -- so many LH bats -- makes this the baseball version of that reality TV series "Hoarders." Enjoy the cleanup, Mr. Bloom.
4. LIMITED ATHLETICISM. NOT ENOUGH WAYS TO SCORE RUNS
This is where I bring the division-rival Brewers deeper into the discussion. The Crew ranks 4th in the majors with an average of 4.98 runs per game. Milwaukee has only three more home runs than St. Louis, and the Cardinals have stroked 27 more doubles than the Brewers.
So how do the Brewers continue to pile up runs despite having limited power?
– Milwaukee leads the NL and is second overall with 124 stolen bases. The Cardinals rank 21st overall and 12th in the NL with 63 steals.
– It isn’t just the steals; the Brewers use their elite team speed to motor around the bases and put pressure on the other team’s defense. According to Statcast, as a team Milwaukee is second in the majors for average sprint speed, and the Cardinals are 24th. This is a large reason why FanGraphs ranks the Brewers No. 1 in the majors at 13.5 base-running runs above average; the Cards are 26th at minus 4.7 below average in base-running runs.
– Another way to put it: the Cardinals are sorely lacking in athleticism. And unless you have a team that thunders its way to imposing home-run totals, you probably need some higher-level athletes who can use their speed to create runs. The Cardinals, as a team, can’t do that. Yeah, Victor Scott can do it … but he doesn’t get on base enough. Besides, I’m talking about overall team speed, athleticism and baserunning as a runs-generating source.
– This speed game helps in other ways that add up. For example, Milwaukee has the second-lowest percentage in the majors at hitting into ground-ball double plays. No question, the speed factor helps them beat out throws to first base in double-play scenarios.
– Another speed-related bonus: the Brewers lead MLB with 121 infield hits, and and their .274 batting average on ground balls is the best in the National League. That speed is at least some factor in Milwaukee’s .304 batting average on balls in play – which is 10 points higher than STL.
– Another way to put it: the Brewers are a helluva lot smarter than the Cardinals in the vital task of roster construction. But you already knew that, right? That front-office IQ battle was won – in a rout – by Milwaukee many years ago, and Mozeliak has outspent his counterparts in Milwaukee by $700 million in payroll since 2017.
5. SMALL BALL? SORRY, NOT IN ST. LOUIS
I love it when the fellas on the TV broadcast go crazy when the Cardinals move a runner over or do anything that qualifies as a small ball. You’ll usually hear something shouted like “That’s St. Louis Baseball Right There, Folks!” Which is usually followed by “They’re Manufacturing!”
Please.
The Brewers have more sac flies than the Cardinals, more sac bunts than the Cardinals, and a higher percentage of extra-bases taken than the Cardinals.
Small ball? The Brewers rank 4th in the majors in productive-outs percentage; the Cardinals are LAST in the majors in the same category.
With their speed and small-ball skills – and base-running savvy – the Brewers are tied for the major-league lead in the percentage of baserunners that come around to score. The Cardinals are 15th.
Fundamentals? Heads-up play? The Brewers’ number of runners thrown out on the bases (excluding steal attempts) is the fifth-lowest total. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have the eighth-highest number of runners lost on the basepaths.
What about a two-strike hitting approach? The Brewers lead the NL with 392 two-strike hits.
So-called “clutch” hitting? The Brewers are 16 percent better than the Cardinals offensively when batting with runners in scoring position. And the Crew is 13 percent better than the Cards in offensive performance with men on base.
The Brewers aren’t Statcast stars. They’re in the bottom five of MLB in hard-hit rate, and dead last in barrel percentage. Maybe a lot of what they do offensively is enriched with batted-ball luck. The Brewers do benefit from sequencing, which isn’t easy to sustain, and that could turn against them in the postseason.
However …
Milwaukee’s offense is tied for the fifth-best walk-strikeout ratio in the majors. They’re fifth in the majors for the most times getting on base through hits, walks, and hit batters. They’re excellent at using stolen bases to create more run-scoring opportunities, and terrific at moving runners over, and they lead the majors in runs produced by advancing on the bases. They don’t care much about homers. They don't try to get away from what they do by trying to hit bombs.
“We focus on the little things,” Milwaukee shortstop Joey Ortiz said recently. “Trying hard not to be something you’re not. Being a good base runner. Being a good defender. “Everyone here just preaches: ‘Be the best you that you can be. Don’t try to be someone else, someone you’re not.’ Everyone understands their role on the team, and everyone tries to be really good at their role.”
I don’t think that would be an accurate description of the Cardinals.
Small ball (little things!) and speed (it kills!) are real competitive assets in Milwaukee. Consistently taking smart at-bats with runners on base is another example of the Brewers’ strong mental game. I think the late Whitey Herzog would have enjoyed watching the Crew do their thing.
I’m out of words, and please pardon my typos.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie happily does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. You can also catch Bernie every Friday morning (10:30 a.m.) as a guest on the Randy Karraker Show here on our site.