Game Information
St. Louis CITY SC (3W-12L-6D, 15 points) vs Portland Timbers (9W-5L-6D, 33 points)
Time: 6pm CT Sunday
How to watch: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
DraftKings Odds
Odds: CITY +115, Portland +190, Draw +265
Total: 3 (over -130, under -105)
CITY Hosts Portland
St. Louis CITY SC looks to end their five-game winless skid when they host the Portland Timbers on Sunday night.
CITY has four losses and a draw in their last five games, including most recently a 3-2 defeat at Real Salt Lake on July 5th.
CITY In Terrible Form
The horrible run of form goes back 17 games now for CITY. During that stretch, they have just 1 win to go along with 12 losses and 4 draws. One of those games was a 2-1 loss at Portland back on June 8th.
Yet somehow, CITY is the favorite in this matchup - more on that below.
Timbers Getting Results
Portland comes to St. Louis in 4th place in the Western Conference after beating New England 2-1 in their most recent match on July 5th.
The Timbers have only tasted defeat 3 times in their last 17 games. They have 8 wins and 6 draws during that span with just the 3 losses.
My Pick
I think this is yet another case of the books setting a bad line for an MLS game. We saw this a couple times earlier this season in back-to-back home games for CITY when they hosted two of the better teams in the league in Columbus and Vancouver. CITY opened as a favorite in those games despite clearly being the inferior team (at least in my eyes), I bet on the underdog early, the line flipped closer to game time with the opponent surpassing CITY as the favorite, and I ended up cashing tickets in both games.
I’m getting the same exact feeling as we head into this game on Sunday. There is just no way CITY should be favored here.
My bet for this game and my favorite play of the weekend across the world of sports is Portland +0.25 at -110 on the Asian handicap. If you’re not familiar with soccer betting, that means half your stake is on Portland +0.5 and the other half is on Portland PK. Here’s the breakdown of what that means if you wagered $110 to win $100 at the -110 odds:
CITY wins the game - You lose your bet and lose $110.
Portland wins the game - You win your bet and profit $100
Draw - You win half your bet. The Portland PK portion of your bet is a push. The Portland +0.5 portion of your bet is a win and you profit $50.
So by placing this wager, you’re going to profit unless CITY does something they’ve only done ONE TIME in their last 17 games - actually pick up a win. That’s a risk I’m willing to take, and I would recommend multiple units on this play.
If you agree with me, I would bet this now because I fully expect the line to move toward Portland as we get closer to Sunday night.
Pick: Portland Timbers +0.25 at -110 on DraftKings (bet to -130)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer