The Cardinals did what they had to do over the three previous nights at Busch Stadium: wrestle the Washington Nationals and come away with a series win.
The Nationals have a .409 winning percentage that ranks ahead of only the Pirates and Rockies in the 15-team National League.
So, yeah, it was important for the Redbirds to steady themselves after getting gobsmacked by five losses in six games to the Pirates and Cubs. And the Cardinals could have lost this series to the Nationals.
With the teams deadlocked at 1-1, Miles Mikolas (of all people!) made an impressive stand to protect the castle and deny the Nats in their brazen attempt to sip from the winning cup.
(Where do I come up with this stuff? Less caffeine, please.)
More on Miles in a bit.
The Cardinals are trying to bounce into the All-Star break with a “We Can Do This!” feeling. After getting pulled under during a turbulent 4-7 stretch that wasn’t all that hazardous to their playoff hopes, the Cardinals (50-44) have a chance to advance their recovery against the visiting Atlanta Braves.
This is a fine opportunity for the Cardinals to win their second consecutive series after losing the back-to-back series at Pittsburgh and Chicago.
Here’s a look at Atlanta’s various stress points.
— ATL has a 40-52 record and .435 winning percentage that’s shoved them into fourth place in the NL East behind the Phillies, Mets and Marlins.
— FanGraphs gives Atlanta a 3.7 percent shot of making the playoffs.
— The Braves have been battered by injuries this season, having competed over long stretches without the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. and pitchers Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schellenbach, and Joe Jimenez. In all, Braves players have missed 529 days and 471 games to injuries.
— The Braves are 13-22 since June 1, and come dragging into Busch Stadium after flying into St. Louis in the wee small hours of Friday morning following Thursday’s night game at Sacramento.
— Averaging three runs per game, Atlanta has lost 11 of its last 14. Their hitters have struck out 10+ times in eight of the last 11 games.
— During the team’s 3-11 slide, Atlanta pitchers have a 6.25 ERA that ranks 28th among the 30 teams since June 25.
— The Braves come into St. Louis with a 16-30 road record (.444) that ranks 27th in the majors.
So, yeah, the Cardinals owe it to themselves and the fans who still support them by winning two of three games this weekend before the All-Star holiday. If the Cardinals can win two of three, they’ll go into the break with a 5-3 mark in their last eight games. A sweep would make it 6-2 in the last eight. But if the Redbirds mess up and have a losing weekend, then you can do the math on that.
BIRD BYTES
1) The Cardinals’ 50-44 record through the first 94 games matches the 50-44 record turned in by the 2022 Cards at the same point in the schedule. And that ‘22 team had the NL MVP (Paul Goldschmidt), the third-place finisher in the MVP (Nolan Arenado), and guys named Pujols, Molina and Wainwright. Miles Mikolas was also very good that season.
2) Mikolas was fabulous in Thursday’s dismissal of the Nationals. He was the No. 1 star of the game, and he deserves credit for rebounding after the disastrous start at Wrigley Field.
3) Mikolas dizzied the Washington hitters with an assortment of offerings that included everything but the knuckleball and eephus pitch. I mean, I’ve been ripping the guy but this was an impressive performance. Mikolas faced 20 batters and gave up two hits and a walk. He induced 10 ground-ball outs. The Nationals went 2 for 19 against him and struck out six times.
4) Mikolas isn’t known for his strikeout punch or swing-and-miss puissance. But that’s what made this presentation so notable. Mikolas got 12 swings and misses for a whiff rate of 30.8 percent. (What?) His strikeout rate in this game was 30 percent. (What?) He tamed the Nationals with a hard-hit rate of 16.7%. (What?)
5) Mikolas spun the hitters’ heads around with a mix of four-seam fastballs, sinkers, changeups, curves, sliders and sweepers. The Nats had a 40 percent whiff-swing rate against his changeup, a 43% whiff-swing rate against his slider, and a 50% whiff-swing showing against his sinker.
6) The storyline: Mikolas made corrections after he realized he was tipping pitches when the Cubs busted him for six home runs last Saturday. OK, maybe. But here’s what I saw: many pitches thrown straight down the middle of the strike zone. So yeah, when hitters know you’re going to throw meatballs and they’re ready to pounce – I guess that’s one way of saying “tipping pitches.” (Pardon my skepticism.) Anyway, Mikolas had a Bill James game score of 70 on Thursday; that’s 20 percent above average. It matched his season-best game score of 70 on May 17 at Kansas City.
7) The St. Louis offense did many things I liked and appreciated in Thursday’s game. Instead of pressing and going into an at-bat trying to pull the ball for home runs, the Cardinals had a smart approach that worked beautifully. So what am I talking about?
8) The Cardinals had seven two-strike hits that delivered five runs batted in. They drew three walks on 3-2 counts. And when connecting on two-strike pitches with runners in scoring position, the Cards went 4 for 8.
9) The Cards also drove pitches to the opposite field, going 4 for 6 with three runs batted in when hitting oppo. Three of their seven two-strike hits produced two RBIs. Smart hitting pays off.
10) The Cardinals have been pretty good at this in 2025. For the season, their .303 batting average on opposite-field connections rank 6th in the NL. Their 145 oppo singles are 2nd in the NL. Their 43 oppo doubles are second in the NL. They’ve hit only five opposite-field homers – last in the league – but that’s kind of the point, right? Swinging for the fences is fine as long as you jump on the kind of pitches that enhance your chances of launching a pull-side homer. But that won’t happen much on low and outside-corner pitches, so the Cardinals understand it’s better to take what you can and hit the ball the other way for a single or double. The Redbirds also have a .290 batting average on two-strike shots to the opposite field.
11) And this approach can lead to positive results. The Cardinals had their best month in May when they hit .311 to the opposite field. The Cards had a tough time offensively in June, and hit only .241 when going oppo. But the hitters have been more aggressive in trying to smack pitches to the opposite field so far in July and are hitting .339 when getting it done.
12) Interim Washington manager Miguel Cairo wasn’t impressed by the Cardinals’ five-hit, five-run outburst in the sixth inning of Thursday’s game.
13) “If you think about it, all those balls (weren’t) hit that hard,” Cairo told reporters who cover the Nats. “They just got lucky. They got hits. They went through holes. And, you know, nothing you can do about it.”
14) Good to see some guys reheating after going cold at the plate.
In his last six games, Brendan Donovan is batting .350, has swatted two homers to pop for a .650 slugging percentage. He’s also drawing walks, and that’s fueled a .417 onbase percentage in the last six. And when Donovan gets on base a lot, the runs scored will follow. He’s scored five runs in the last 6.
Willson Contreras has a five-game hitting streak in which he’s batted .389 with a .450 onbase percentage and .667 slug.
Masyn Winn had 6 hits in 12 at-bats against the Nationals, with three doubles and a couple of RBIs.
Lars Nootbaar is stirring; he’s 7 for 24 (.292) with two doubles and a homer and five runs scored in his last seven games.
Alec Burleson is 6 for 20 (.300) in his last five contests with a double, home run, five RBIs and a .500 slug.
15) When Ivan Herrera rejoins the Cardinals after his stay on the IL, can he bring JJ Wetherholt with him from Memphis?
16) I did a video on STLSportsCentral with my reaction to John Mozeliak’s decision to keep Michael McGreevy at Triple A Memphis to stay the course with Erick Fedde. You can watch the video (CLICK HERE). Manager Oli Marmol made the case for having McGreevy make Saturday’s start instead of Fedde, who needs to regroup. But Mozeliak has complete authority to set the 26-man roster, and he declined to promote McGreevy.
Mozeliak is trying to save face for a few reasons …
A) The Fedde trade turned out to be a bust, and the Cardinals received little benefit after putting Tommy Edman into the three-team deal. The Cardinals weren’t going to re-sign Edman to a new contract, and Edman was injured at the time of the trade. So I understood the logic behind the trade … but the trade hasn’t worked out. Fedde didn’t boost the team’s chances of making the playoffs after Mozeliak acquired him.
B) The Cardinals have an 8-20 record in Fedde’s starts for them over the last two seasons. That includes a 5-13 team record in his 18 starts this season. And the Cards are 2-8 in Fedde’s last 10 starts.
C) The No. 1 problem – as most folks understand – is Fedde’s trade value. There was a lot of interest in Fedde last offseason because he was coming off a solid 2024 season with the White Sox and Cardinals. Fedde was much better when pitching for the White Sox than the Cardinals. Another reason for Fedde’s trade appeal was his affordable $7.2 million contract for 2025. He can walk as a free agent after the season, but potential trade partners were interested in renting him for ‘25.
D) Fedde’s trade value was significantly higher last offseason than it is now. Mozeliak gambled on Fedde’s trade value being even higher at the 2025 trade deadline and decided to keep him for what he believed would be a greater return in acquired talent. The decision to wait blew up on Mozeliak after he squandered the opportunity to cash in with Fedde after the ‘24 season.
E) Whatever trade value Fedde has now is minimal. Even if Fedde makes a couple of nice starts, teams won’t be rushing to offer Mozeliak a trade that would send any kind of coveted prospect in return. That opportunity is long gone because of Mozeliak’s losing bet.
F) If Mozeliak wanted to keep Fedde because he believed Fedde would help the team win and perhaps make the postseason in 2025 – that went “kaboom” as well. As I pointed out, the Cardinals have won just under 28 percent of the starts made by Fedde this season. And they’ve won only 20 percent of the time in his last 10 starts.
G) Fedde’s individual won-loss record as a Cardinal is 5-14. This season it is 3-9. Fedde hasn’t been credited with an individual win since May 9. And in his 10 starts since May 14 Fedde ranks 100th among 113 MLB starting pitchers with a 5.70 ERA over that time. And his 12.9 percent strikeout rate is No. 111 on that list of 113 starters.
H) Perhaps Mozeliak is angling to include Fedde in a much larger deal that includes multiple players. We’ll see.
I) But for now Mozeliak has nothing to show after making that deal for Fedde last summer. The only thing accomplished in that deal: Mozeliak blocked McGreevy from graduating to the big club for a deserved opportunity in St. Louis. Yep, the same pitcher that Mozeliak’s baseball operation drafted on the 18th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Yep, that’s the guy being blocked by Mozeliak. Seriously … how crazy is this?
J) McGreevy fits the “runway” season profile that Mozeliak touted as the “plan” to give young players a fuller opportunity in 2025. And McGreevy would have given the Cards a better chance of winning games … and Fedde has done the opposite of that.
K) Even though McGreevy presented Mozeliak with two opportunities to benefit – get a prospect on the “runway” and also enhance the team’s chances of winning – Mozeliak whiffed on both fronts. Two big strikeouts. It’s preposterous.
L) That “L” could stand for “losing.” Mozeliak’s immense ego got in the way. Mozeliak is so determined to prove that he was right in his failed Fedde strategy, he undermined his own team in 2025 and beyond. Mozeliak cost this ‘25 team some wins, and that could lead to the Cards missing the postseason. And Mozeliak may have cost future Cardinal teams a shot of benefiting by having young talent acquired for Fedde if the president of baseball operations had acted last winter.
By staying with Mozeliak, Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. lost business because many Cardinals fans are staying away from Busch Stadium for a simple reason: Mozeliak still works there. Sad.
Thanks for reading … have a great weekend.
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.