As promised, today’s column will look at what the Cardinals must do in order to build on their better-than-expected performance over the first 81 games.
So let’s get to it.
I have questions.
CAN THE CARDINALS STAY HEALTHY?
I don’t know if we fully appreciate the team’s good fortune on the injury front. As of Friday morning, the Cardinals and the Phillies are the top two teams in the majors at avoiding damage created by injuries. The Phillies have 150 days missed – and 142 games missed by injured players. The Cardinals were right there with them at 167 days, and 161 games, missed by players lost to the Injured List.
And that’s misleading. Pitcher Zack Thompson, who wasn’t in the regular-season plans, accounts for 55 percent of STL’s total time missed. Yeah, having Ivan Herrera sidelined twice by injuries is a downer, but c’mon. Unlike many teams – including NL postseason contenders – the Cardinals were largely unscathed by injury-related trauma during the first 81 games.
The St. Louis starting rotation has rolled through every game this season without interruption or disruption to their rotation plans. And manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake have given starters extra rest when possible by using Steven Matz – and recently Michael McGreevy – in a sixth-starter role.
CAN LARS NOOTBAAR ESTABLISH CONSISTENCY?
When Nootbaar went through a horrendous 15-game stretch – .098 average, 20 strikeouts, seven walks – the Cardinals had a record of 6-9 and the team offense suffered.
When Nootbaar is locked in and maximizing his offensive talent, he has as much impact as any Cardinal position player.
Consider:
When Nootbaar gets on base at least twice in a game, the Cardinals are 28-12.
When Noot scores at least one run in a game, the Cards are 20-7. When he scores two or more, they’re 7-1.
When Nootbaar homers, the Cards are 11-0
When Lars drives in one or more runs in a game the Redbirds are 19-4.
This season Nootbaar has 1.1 WAR (not great), a wRC+ that translates into seven percent above average offensively (not great), and a mediocre .230 batting average. His .337 on-base percentage is fine but should be higher. His slugging percentage (.388) is OK, but you want to see him above .400 at least. And he’s capable of doing it.
From 2021 through 2024, Nootbaar slugged .425, got on base 35 percent of the time, and was 17 percent above league average offensively. The Cardinals won’t be as formidable if Nootbaar can’t exceed what he was able to do before 2025. By now he should be well above average in essential offensive categories.
And he missed the final two games of the Cubs series with an intercostal strain. Nootbaar’s injury history makes us a little nervous.
CAN NOLAN GORMAN KEEP PRODUCING?
The left-handed slugger is capable of having a huge impact on the STL offense. In his last 24 games Gorman had a .282 average, .363 on-base percentage, and a .563 slug. He’s had nine extra-base hits (including five homers) and 12 RBIs. His power can alter games. During his three-plus seasons as a Cardinal, the team is 43-15 (.741) when Gorman goes deep.
CAN THE CARDS DO A BETTER JOB AGAINST LEFTY PITCHERS?
This problem warrants scrutiny because it’s getting worse. The Cardinals were above-average against lefty pitching in the first month, but the performance continues to decline.
Stats:
– In June left-handed pitchers have a 3.26 ERA against the St. Louis hitters
– The Cards’ right-handed batters haven’t hit lefties with authority this month; they’re hitting only .237 with a .347 slug. Not good.
– The monthly ERA by left-handed starting pitchers against the St. Louis offense has improved each month.
5.45 in March-April.
4.50 in May.
3.70 in June.
The latest injury to Herrera doesn’t help; this season he’s beaten down lefties for a .333 average, 1.189 OPS and five homers in 45 at-bats. And those LHP have tried to work around Herrera, walking him so often that he has 17.5 percent walk rate and .456 OBP.
Another right-handed hitter, Jordan Walker, has pretty much been useless when facing lefties. Since the end of April, Walker is 4 for 34 (.118) with a mortifying 44.4 strikeout rate.
Masyn Winn, who bats right, blasted left-handed pitching in 2024, slugging .500 with nine homers and 13 doubles in a performance (per wRC+) that rated 25 percent above league average offensively. He hasn’t been the same against lefties so far in 2025, slugging only .333 with only one home run in 106 plate appearances.
CAN THE OFFENSE HAVE MORE THUMP ON THE ROAD?
It’s crazy how well the Cardinals hit at Busch Stadium, a place that historically favors pitchers. But, as I mentioned recently the Cardinals have a .241 road average, a .375 road slugging percentage and a .690 road OPS.
Here’s the worst part: St. Louis has scored two runs or fewer in 41 percent of its road games so far, and have a 2-14 record when it happens.
Let’s extend our look to four runs or less in road games – and that’s been the offensive output in 22 of STL’s 39 road games.
And their road record when scoring four runs or less is a horrible 4-18. The Cardinals are 18-21 on the road this season. That record would be a lot better if their offense hadn’t been suppressed for below-average run totals in so many games.
For an offense that puts up such good numbers at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals’ roadhouse blues don’t make sense.
OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST
– The Cards bullpen has done well overall, but this team plays a lot of tight games, and closer Ryan Helsley can’t be as shaky as we’ve seen. The mysterious decline of his four-seam fastball is something I’ll be monitoring.
– Is it OK for me to point out that Brendan Donovan is in a rut?
First 45 games: .337 average, .837 OPS.
Last 28 games: .241 average, .670 OPS.
– Is it OK for me to mention that Donovan’s offense has receded since he moved to the leadoff spot in Oli Marmol’s lineup? Granted, it’s only been 10 games. But as the No. 1 hitter on the card, Donovan has a .244 average, .295 onbase percentage and a .637 OPS. Based on wRC+, his level of offense at the top spot is 25 percent below league average. But I think we can expect to see BD raise those numbers.
– There’s been some defensive slippage and that can’t continue. The pitchers rely on great defensive support.
– While I very much appreciate Victor Scott’s exceptional defense in center field, the Cardinals could use more offensive production at the position. Scott and others who have played center this season have a .228 average, .286 slug, and a .601 OPS. Per wRC+, the STL center-field offense is 22 percent below league average.
– Can Jordan Walker salvage his season? So far, it’s really bad.
– I think the Cardinals need to add an established (and reasonably successful) reliever before the trade deadline. With Steven Matz showing more vulnerability, Cardinals’ lefty relievers have been smacked for a .304 average and .464 slugging percentage in June.
And when a St. Louis left-handed reliever has pitched to a right-handed hitter in June, they’ve been mashed for a .375 average, .609 slug, and a 1.029 OPS.
Left-hander JoJo Romero has done a solid job this month. But in June Matz and fellow lefty reliever John King have a combined 5.49 ERA, and right-handed batters have hit them hard.
Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM0 and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic.