If the Cubs were curious about the Cardinals and their surprisingly good season so far in 2025, the visitors got an up-close look on Monday night at Busch Stadium. It was time for the first-place Cubs to conduct an inspection of this feisty little underdog in St. Louis.
The Cubs saw enough. The first of four games between the teams wasn’t definitive; after all there are three more games to go before the Cubs leave town. But the series opener was revealing, because the Cardinals showed their teeth. And this underdog has a mean bite.
In front of a small crowd at Busch Stadium on a steamy night, the Cardinals performed exceptionally well in all phases.
The St. Louis weather is awfully hot these days.
The St. Louis bats were even hotter in powering to an 8-2 victory over the NL Central’s finest club.
The Cubs could have used some air conditioning.
Or maybe some ground-ball outs.
– The St. Louis hitters loaded up the dynamite and slugged four home runs that plated all eight runs. All four projectiles were set off by left-handed hitters: Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. Each blast was a two-run shot. Three of the four home runs came with two outs. And the four homers were struck in a span of 12 plate appearances that covered parts of the fourth, fifth and sixth innings. All four damaging blows made a victim of right-handed Cubs starter Ben Brown.
– The Cardinals put 29 batted balls into fair territory Monday night. According to Statcast, 20 of the 29 left the bat at 94 miles per hour or higher. And 13 of those batted balls were clocked at 100 miles per hour. The four home runs traveled 105 mph.
– Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore confronted the most explosive road offense in the National League and cuffed the Cubs in seven assertive innings of six-hit, two-run pitching. A dangerous Chicago lineup that leads the NL in road home runs was denied a landing spot beyond the outfield wall by Libby. After his recent downturn, Liberatore has revived for a 2.77 ERA and 1.92 fielding independent ERA in his last two starts.
— In an upset of sorts, the Cards out-homered the Cubs, 4-0 and had the only stolen base in this game (thanks, Victor Scott!) The Redbirds played clean defense. The most impactful non-hitting play of the game came in the top of the fifth inning. The Cardinals led 2-1 but the Cubs had the bases loaded with one out to put Liberatore in a perilous situation. But Ian Happ’s grounder was snared by third baseman Nolan Arenado, who extinguished the threat by starting a nifty, textbook 5-4-3 double play. The inning-ending double play deflated the Cubs (at least a little) and increased the Cardinals’ win expectancy by 21 percent.
— Willson Contreras burned his former team with a scorching three-hit night that featured two doubles smashed at an average of 106.5 miles per hour.
— The STL bullpen turned in two scoreless innings from back-bench relievers Riley O’Brien and Roddery Munoz. Liberatore’s deep start – combined with the good work by the two secondary relievers – gave manager Oli Marmol a fresh bullpen for Tuesday’s game, and the team’s best relievers will be available.
THE OVERVIEW
With the win, the Cardinals climbed to within 3 and ½ games of first-place Chicago in the NL Central standings. The Cards and Brewers are tied for second place with identical 43-36 records. According to the FanGraphs model, Milwaukee and St. Louis each have a 16.5 percent chance to win the division. As for making the playoffs, the Cardinals’ probability is up to 38 percent with the Brewers slightly better at 40%.
This is an important series for the Cardinals. I think their players have confidence in themselves and each other, and their collective energy is vibrant. This team has an endearing personality and is entertaining to watch.
With so much hype being lathered on the Cubs, and with the Cardinals riding the underdog vibe, this surprisingly good team in St. Louis has a chance to prove they can hang close to the Cubs in the NL Central. After trailing their archrivals by 7 games on June 17, the Cards have suddenly cut the lead in half. The Cards’ persistence is admirable considering Chicago’s payroll advantage that’s nearly $60 million higher than STL’s.
Are the Cubs infallible? No. They are damn good but could use a higher-level starting pitcher. They’ll have to make that move before the July 31 trading deadline. And there are times when the Cubs flatten out just like all teams. Accordingly, the Cubs have dropped four of their last five games, and that’s part of an 8-10 stretch that began on June 4. The North Siders were outscored 82-70 over their last 18 games.
Chicago is 10-10 so far in June and has been outscored by three runs. Not a big deal, because we see even the best MLB teams curdle at times. (See: New York Mets.)
Maybe this series came at a good time for the Cardinals; the next three games will let us know. But this first CHC-STL showdown of 2025 is also the first opportunity for the Cardinals to send a message to the Cubs: here we are, and we’re not going anywhere. We will not make it easy for you.
The Cardinals reaffirmed that message by coming out and pounding four home runs. The extent of the Cardinals’ staying power remains undetermined, and we’ve seen them teeter. There was a 2-5 stretch early on, a five-game losing streak that began April 17, and an ugly 4-10 mess that started on May 30 and included the six-game losing streak. But I love this team’s collective attitude. The “Youngry Birds” motto fits.
With a win in the first game, the Cardinals need only one more “W” to secure a series split with the Cubs. And if they can win two of the next three, the Cardinals will head to Cleveland with a 3-1 series victory over the Cubs in hand. I wouldn’t get cocky about this because the Cubs do, in fact, have the best road offense among NL teams and can go bonkers at any moment.
Some of us may disagree about the Cardinals’ realistic shot of making the postseason, but I think we all agree on this much: the 2025 Cardinals will not back down from any team, any challenge, or any adversity that threatens them. We can’t always count on their performance to be consistently good, and this is definitely a streaky team. But I think we can rely on the Cardinals to stay resilient and mentally strong. That’s a valuable intangible to bring to each day of competition.
The Cardinals have done an impressive job of rebounding from their recent six-game losing streak. They’ve emerged from the ominous clouds to see the sunshine again, winning seven of their last nine games, including a 6-1 record in the last seven played.
BIRD BYTES!
1) Surging on offense: During the current 7-2 stretch the Cardinals have averaged 6.2 runs per game and slugged .437. In going 6-1 in the last seven, the Redbirds averaged 6.6 runs, walloped 12 homers and slugged .445.
2) Starting pitching, coming around: In their last 10 games, the six STL starters used over that time have combined for a 2.80 ERA, faced 220 batters, and got tousled for only three home runs. Cards starters allowed no more than three earned runs during a start during this 10-game turnaround – and permitted no more than two earned runs in eight of the games. Opponents have batted .226 with a .623 OPS against the Cards rotation since June 13. The team’s overall ERA over the past 10 games was 3.16 – fourth best in the majors since June 13.
3) Pedro Pages behind the plate: the Cards No. 1 catcher did a splendid job of working in concert with Liberatore to keep the Cubs off balance in pitch selection. That’s no surprise. Only one regular starting pitcher has a poor ERA this season when working with Pages, and that’s Miles Mikolas. I certainly wouldn’t blame Pages for any failures by Mikolas. Here’s a rundown of pitcher ERA’s when they throw to Pages:
Liberatore, 2.97
Sonny Gray, 2.20
Erick Fedde, 3.21
Andre Pallante, 4.01
Miles Mikolas, 6.09 … but a lot of that damage came in one start, when Mikolas was shredded for eight earned runs in 2 and ⅔ innings at Boston. Pages was also the catcher when the Blue Jays swarmed Mikolas for six runs in five innings on June 10. But, are we really going to point the finger at Pages for both of these lousy Mikolas outings?
Michael McGreevy, 4.09. (Three runs came in one inning against the Dodgers. Other than that, pretty much spotless.)
Steven Matz, 2.05
Phil Maton, 2.79
JoJo Romero, 2.87
Kyle Leahy, 2.08
Ryan Helsley, 4.09 this season and 3.17 over the last two seasons. This season Helsley’s four-seam fastball is very hittable, so I’m not sure what a catcher is supposed to do with that – demand more sliders? The pitcher has the final say. Helsley has a 2.25 ERA when pitching to Helsley this season … but I don’t think this team is going to keep Pozo glued to the bench and held in reserve for ninth-inning save opportunities. The problem here is the fastball … not the catcher. Helsley had a good ERA when dealing to Pages last year.
4) The bottom line with Pages: this season Cards pitchers collectively have a 3.58 ERA when working with Pages. Their ERA with Yohel Pozo is 4.02, and the ERA is 5.35 when Ivan Herrera catches. Over the last two seasons the Cardinals have used four catchers: Willson Contreras (just in 2024), plus Pages, Pozo and Herrera. Of the four catchers, Pages is the only catcher that has gotten an ERA under 4.00 from the St. Louis pitching staff. Pages has a 3.69 catcher ERA over the last two seasons, which is considerably better than Herrera’s 4.78. And it’s better than Pozo’s catcher ERA but Pozo hasn’t caught many innings. Contreras had a 4.23 ERA last season.
5) What about team runs allowed per game based on the catcher? I have the answer, and I averaged it out over the last two seasons:
Pages, 4.07
Contreras, 4.65
Herrera, 5.13
Do we all agree that it’s smart for Cardinals to limit runs? Yeah, I think we do, and Pages clearly makes a difference in coaxing the best performances from STL pitchers. His pitch selection and game management are outstanding. He also throws out base stealers at an above-average rate. Yeah, this stuff matters. And this is why Cardinal pitchers love working with Pages. Umm, did we not learn something about the value of having a strong defensive catcher from 2005 through 2022? I guess not. Herrera should catch some games when he returns from the IL, but if defense matters … and if game preparation matters … then Pages shouldn’t be pushed aside because of his limitations offensively. Then again, I remember the fans and media dolts who used to shriek at Tony La Russa for sticking with the weak-hitting Yadier Molina in Yadi’s younger years as the starting catcher.
6) Speaking of defense: Jordan Walker is a minus 4 in defensive runs saved this season when playing right field. Alec Burleson is exactly average – not positive or negative – in runs saved in right field. And Burly also has a higher overall Fielding Run Value score than Walker. Moreover, Burleson is a +1 in defensive runs saved in both left field and first base. When a hitter is coming through as hugely as Burleson has done in 2025, average or slightly above-average defense is a bonus. The big fella isn’t graceful out there but his defense is fine.
7) Burleson, high on the leaderboard: since April 22, Burleson leads the Cardinals with a .335 batting average, a .533 slugging percentage, and a .915 OPS. Per wRC+, Burleson is 59 percent above league average offensively since April 22 – which ranks No. 1 among St. Louis hitters. During that time, Burleson also leads the Cards in homers (9) and is third in RBIs (26).
8) Nolan Gorman keeps going: In 69 plate appearances since May 26, Gorman is hitting .267 with a .362 on-base percentage and .550 slug for an OPS of .912. His production over that time includes three doubles, a triple and four home runs. And sure, you can mewl over his 32 percent strikeout rate since May 26 … but just make sure you also mention Gorman’s impressive 13 percent walk rate over that time.
9) Welcome back, Lars Nootbaar: after an extensive and brutal slump, Noot has rallied to hit .316 with a 1.093 OPS in his last five games. During the five games he’s also walked three times, homered twice, doubled once, and driven home five runs.
10) The STL hitters put up big numbers in Monday’s win over the Cubs – and they continue to put up impressive numbers at Busch Stadium. Going into Tuesday, the Cardinals have one of the top home-park offenses in the majors, ranking 4th in batting average, 6th in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and 8th in OPS. Their overall offensive performance at Busch Stadium (per wRC+) is 14 percent above average. Per wRC+, the Cardinals rank 10th in the majors in their home-yard offensive performance that’s 15 percent above the league average.
11) OK, and now for my bonus stat, which I’ll close with. When we think of Wrigley Field, we think of offense. When we think of Busch Stadium, we think of empty seats, and a pitcher-friendly environment.
Well, as I mentioned in my video this morning, the Cardinals have a better offense at Busch Stadium this season than the Cubs have at Wrigley Field.
Facts:
The Cardinals are hitting .270 at Busch. The Cubs are hitting .241 at Wrigley.
The Cards have a .339 on-base percentage at Busch, the Cubs have a .322 OBP at Wrigley.
The Cards have a .416 slugging percentage at Busch, and the Cubs have a .408 slug at Wrigley.
The Cards have a .755 OPS at Busch, which is 25 points higher than the Cubs’ .730 OPS at Wrigley.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic.