Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (42-36) vs Chicago Cubs (46-31)
Time: 6:45pm CT Monday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 4.08 ERA) vs Ben Brown (4-5, 5.57 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cubs -115, Cardinals -106
Total: 9 (over +100, under -122)
Cards, Cubs Ready To Square Off
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs finally meet for the first time this season when the two teams open a four-game series tonight at Busch Stadium.
The Cubs lead the NL Central, 3.5 games ahead of the Brewers and 4.5 games in front of the Cardinals. The Redbirds trail Milwaukee by 1 game for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Liberatore Ready To Roll
The Cardinals turn to Matthew Liberatore in the series opener. The left-hander righted the ship in his last outing, pitching 6 innings of 2-run ball against the White Sox while allowing just 5 hits with no walks. In his previous 3 starts, he had permitted 17 runs (16 earned) on 24 hits in 14 innings.
Liberatore is due for his ERA to keep moving down, as his 4.08 season ERA comes with a 3.63 xERA, 3.05 FIP, and 3.62 xFIP.
Brown On The Mound
The Cubs counter tonight with Ben Brown, who has been excellent in three of his last four starts. The right-hander had a rough outing in Philadelphia mixed in where he gave up 6 runs in 5.2 innings against a high-powered Phillies lineup. But in the other three starts against winning clubs in the Reds, Tigers, and Brewers, Brown allowed a total of just 4 runs in 18 innings to go along with 21 strikeouts.
Brown is also a positive regression candidate, as his 5.57 season ERA comes with a 4.43 xERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.48 xFIP.
My Lean
This is a tough game to call with a wide range of outcomes in my opinion - both from a side and total perspective.
Both Liberatore and Brown have high ERA’s, but as mentioned above, those are due to come down.
But you also have two offenses that rank in the Top 10 in MLB in runs per game, with the Cubs second (5.42) and the Cardinals ninth (4.69).
I’m going to pass on betting this one, but if forced to make a play, I’d go with the first five under to fade the public on a high-profile game on a pretty light Monday slate.
As of the time of this writing, 89% of the public is on the over. I think a big reason for that is the Cubs played some crazy high-scoring games this weekend, but that was due in large part to some extremely favorable weather conditions for hitters at Wrigley Field. And when in doubt in sports gambling, fade the public.
Lean: Under 4.5 in the first five innings at -105 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer