With the Cardinals set to play their SIXTH doubleheader of the season, time is short as I sit down to write this column.
By the way, I did a Bernie Show video this morning on the mysteries that are swirling during closer Ryan Helsley’s ineffective 2025 season – and what it means as MLB moves closer to the July 31 trade deadline. Check it out if you’re curious, and I thank you in advance.
This column contains lots of snark.
I just felt it was honorable to warn you.
BIRD BYTES
1) Glad to see the Cardinals make the obvious move and summon pitcher Michael McGreevy to start the second game of Thursday’s doubleheader against the White Sox. McGreevy has been wasted at Triple A Memphis. He’s been excellent down there, and I guess I should say at least McGreevy helped the Triple A team win games.
2) Even though the Cardinals and their apologists continue to downplay the rotation problems, here’s where it stands: since May 24, in a span of 22 games that lead into today, the St. Louis rotation has a 5.26 ERA that ranks last in the National League and 29th overall. In their first 51 games of 2025, the Cardinal starters ranked 9th in the majors and 4th in the NL with a 3.61 rotation ERA.
3) More (and exciting) starting pitching is on the horizon. On Wednesday STL’s top pitching prospect, Quinn Mathews, dazzled with his latest start at Triple A Memphis. The lefty twirled five scoreless innings and gave up one hit, a single, and struck out six with two walks.
Mathews was shut down early in the season after experiencing shoulder fatigue, but the minor-league pitching supervisors used the down time to smooth out some of his mechanical flaws away from competition.
4) In his last three starts for Memphis, Mathews has a 1.38 ERA with a superb 34.6 percent strikeout rate. He faced 49 hitters over the three starts and limited them to a .186 average, .286 on-base percentage and .209 slug. Seven of the eight hits against him were singles.
5) If Mathews keeps going like this, I don’t see why the Cardinals wouldn’t promote him to the big club at some point after the All-Star break. That’s up to president of baseball ops John Mozeliak.
6) But the Cardinals are gonna Cardinal, and Mo is gonna Mo, and who needs a premium talent with an impressive strikeout rate when you’re paying Miles Mikolas to pitch? Why bring up a dude with electric stuff and pure strikeout whack when you can lean on Andre Pallante to get you those ground balls – plus a 5.55 ERA in his last nine starts.
7) In Pallante’s last 60 innings, 88 hitters have reached base … and 27 of them have gotten there by smashing extra-base hits. That would be nine homers, 15 doubles and three triples. His 19 walks, five wild pitches and two balks were a nice touch. In the last nine starts right-handed hitters waylaid the right-handed Pallante for a .328 average, .388 onbase percentage, .574 slug, and 1.9 homers per nine innings.
8) Of the 156 right-handed hitters that Pallante faced over the last nine assignments, 14 percent struck and 10 percent hammered him for an extra-base hit. But I guess I’m being negative here. I’m often told that Pallante is improving, looking better, ground balls, ground balls, he’s fine, making progress, ground balls, talking points, ground balls, talking points, talking points, ground balls, spin, spin, spin. So why would I be concerned?
9) Also on the move is the eternal St. Louis pitching prospect Tink Hence. He’s completed his rehab assignment as part of the recovery from his latest injury. Hence will resurface at Double A Springfield for his first start of the season on Friday night. Hence is the organization’s consensus No. 3 prospect behind JJ Wetherholt and Quinn Mathews. His talent is undeniable. But the national prospect watchers have lost interest in Hence because of his frequent injuries. Hence, soon to be 23, has averaged only 59 and ⅓ innings per season in the minors since turning pro in 2021. He’s never pitched more than 96 innings in a season. But if Hence can stay healthy, he’ll be a winning lottery ticket for the Cardinals. Let’s hope so.
10) Here’s a quote from Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon: “With the roster we have, we definitely should win the division. But you obviously have to go out and play the games. It’s not like you can say we should go steamroll everyone. There’s a lot of good talent in this division, but our roster is built to win — and it’s built to win right now.’’
11) Atop the NL Central, the first-place Cubs go into Thursday’s activities with a 45-28 record. Their .616 winning percentage is No. 1 in the National League and second to the Tigers overall. Through Wednesday the Cubs led the Reds and Brewers by 6 and ½ games. The Cardinals were seven games out.
12) The Chicago bullpen was a mess earlier this season but manager Craig Counsell has taken care of that by reorganizing his reliever pool. Since May 7, the Cubs have the best bullpen ERA in the majors at 1.57. In a key move, Counsell installed the young reliever Daniel Palencia as the team’s closer. And in his last 22 relief appearances the right-hander, age 25, has a 1.21 ERA and 30 percent strikeout rate. Over that time, he has saved six wins in seven opportunities with seven holds.
13) Raise your hand if you thought the Cubs would have a better closer in 2025 than your St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs will be aggressive in their search for a starting pitcher between now and the July 31 trade deadline.
14) Since I’m gabbing about the NL Central, the Reds are finally heading in the right direction under manager Terry Francona. Cincinnati was four games under .500 (20-24) on May 14, but have kicked in for a 19-11 record over their last 30 games. The Reds, who will be at Busch Stadium for a three-game series this weekend, enter Thursday with a 9-2 record since June 6. They’ve won four straight series, beating the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Tigers and Twins.
15) Over the last 30 games, the Reds offense has averaged 4.8 runs per contest and slugged .440. Their starting pitching ERA (3.25) is the sixth best in the majors since May 15. Even though ace Hunter Greene is on the IL with a strained groin, the other starters have compensated for his absence. In their 24 combined starts since May 15, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez and Brady Singer have collectively pitched to a 3.16 ERA and posted 12 quality starts.
Emilio Pagan has pitched very well since taking over as Cincinnati’s closer. During the team’s 19-11 run since May 15, the righty has a 1.69 ERA, 36.4 percent strikeout rate, and is 8 for 8 in save opportunities.
“They’re in a good place where they’re fighting to win,” Francona said of his players after a recent win. “It’s not always going to be perfect, but they’re fighting. I like that a lot.”
The Cards-Reds series should be a dandy.
16) One thing I’d like to see in Thursday’s doubleheader is more offense from Masyn Winn. He goes into today with a .203 average and .489 OPS for June. Before play began on Thursday, Winn’s OPS (.708) was 22 points down from last season, and his slugging percentage (.385) had dropped 31 points from last season’s standard. Wynn is down offensively this season with a 98 OPS+ that’s a tad lower than the league average.
17) The Cardinals would benefit from Jordan Walker heating back up after being cooled down by a stay on the injured list with a sore wrist. In a 13-game stretch for him that began May 16, Walker batted .333 with a .528 slugging percentage and drove home some big runs. But since returning Walker had two hits (both singles) in his first seven at-bats before Thursday.
18) Another observation on Walker: his defensive work in right field is slipping. Walker was a plus defender early on in both outs above average and defensive runs saved. But going into the doubleheader Walker was a minus 3 in defensive runs saved – which ranked 15th among 17 MLB right fielders that have logged 300 innings or more this season. And Walker is a minus 1 in outs above average.
19) The Nolan Arenado speculation is catnip for national baseball media. They can’t get enough of it. Here’s what Zachary D. Rymer had to say over at Bleacher Report:
"Arenado joining the Dodgers would allow the rest of us to move on while presumably permitting him to be very happy. The Southern California native has been linked to the Dodgers for what feels like forever, and they would make a nice final stop on what has been a terrific career," Rymer wrote.
“The Cardinals were a nice story early on, but a 4-10 June has cleared up any confusion about how good they actually are.
“Despite his contract and waning production, Nolan Arenado remains an interesting trade chip. He badly needs a change of scenery, and he should want one amid the sudden losing. If he gets one, maybe he'll be energized, Frankenstein-style into the Arenado of old.”
And Rymer added: “Otherwise, Ryan Helsley, Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas are here, too. The first of those names is arguably the best reliever who could be available this summer."
20) Me again. Bernie. And I’m not sure about that last part. Helsley has a 3.96 ERA this season including a 5.06 ERA in his last 16 appearances. Going into Thursday, opponents were destroying his four-seam fastball for a .440 average and .600 slugging percentage this season. That .440 batting average against the four-seamer was the highest (as in worst) given up by a regular pitcher in the majors this season, starter or reliever. And the .600 slug was the 10th worst yielded by a pitcher that had used the four-seamer in at least 60 plate appearances.
21) The Statcast value on Helsley’s fastball puts him at No. 193 among MLB pitchers through Wednesday. Last season, the value of Helsley’s four-seam fastball put him among the top 36 percent of pitchers. This season that fastball value is among the bottom 13 percent of pitchers. Also, his swing and miss rate is in decline for the third straight season. In 2022, Helsley had a 28.6 percent whiff swing rate with his four-seam heat. This season, that whiff rate on the fastball is just 16.2 percent. The hard-hit rate against Helsley has increased for the third consecutive year. His strikeout rate is down for the third consecutive year.
22) But perhaps some smart team out there will make a run for Helsley at the trade deadline. Why? Because such a team would be confident they can fix his fastball … and his pitch sequencing … which is something the Cardinals have failed to do. Among other things, opponents know that Helsley will throw the four-seam fastball 80 percent of the time when he’s behind in the count. It’s so predictable the hitters go hunting for the four-seamer when Helsley is down in the count – and they’re ready to jump on it when he throws it.
23) Helsley isn’t the same pitcher that thrilled us in 2024. His fastball still has a high velo of 99 mph but it’s flattened out because of a higher arm angle that’s altered his release point – which in turn causes the fastball to zoom to the middle of the strike zone … making it easier to hit. The vertical drop on the fastball isn’t as imposing, and the horizontal break on the pitch isn’t as sharp. Helsley already has blown more saves (5) through the team's first 73 games this season than he did during the entire 162-game schedule (4) last season.
24) Let’s go, Lars Nootbaar.
25) Erick Fedde might be the best trade piece the Cardinals have.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie Miklasz was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.