Starting with Tuesday’s game against the visiting Royal family, the Cardinals are opening a 32-game expedition that ends on the 6th of July.
OK, this ain’t a Lewis & Clark thing. But we cannot overstate the importance of this hard stretch of schedule for the Redbirds.
For now, before the Cardinals enter the marathon, I wanted to jump in on a different topic: through the first 59 games of STL’s 2025 schedule, how is the so-called “Runway” season working out?
What St. Louis players and pitchers are taking advantage of expanded opportunities? On the other side, what players/pitchers have struggled to seize the opportunity and strengthen their hold on a prominent role, or even a roster spot, going forward?
RUNWAY: TAKING FLIGHT
1. Matthew Liberatore. In his first full opportunity as a major-league starting pitcher, Liberatore is doing exceptionally well. He leads Cards starting pitchers in a number of categories including ERA (3.08) and Fielding Independent ERA (2.66) and Wins Above Replacement (1.7).
Among National League starting pitchers, Libby ranks 1st for lowest walk rate per nine innings (1.29), 1st for the best strikeout-walk ratio (6.22). That’s not all. Liberatore is 4th among NL starters in Fielding Independent ERA, tied for 5th for lowest home-run rate against (0.56 per 9 innings), is tied for 6th in WAR, and is tied for 8th in Quality Starts with seven.
2. Victor Scott II: Let’s acknowledge that his offense has been down since May 1, as evidenced by Scott’s .238 average and .601 OPS over that time. But he’s a smart guy, so I like his chances of adjusting and bouncing back offensively. But even though Scott is five percent below league average offensively this season (per wRC+) he does a good job of getting on base. And that’s good for several reasons including his ability to steal bases.
Scott has been successful 94 percent of the time, swiping 16 bags in 17 attempts. That’s tied for second best in the NL among runners that have attempted at least 17 steals. In that group, only Oneil Cruz (95%) has done better than Scott.
Scott’s center-field defense has been superb. Through Tuesday morning, Scott ranked 2nd in the majors at the CF position with 7 outs above average. Scott’s multiple skills explains Scott’s value. He ranks third among STL position players in WAR (behind Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn) and is second in Win Probability Added.
3. Ivan Herrera: A knee injury cost him 30 games, but among National League hitters that have taken at least 100 plate appearances this season, Herrera ranks 2nd in batting average (.333), 3rd in OPS (.998), and 4th in both slugging percentage (.578) and onbase rate (.421). Per wRC+, Herrera is 78 percent above league average offensively this season. The only NL dudes to top that so far are Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
4. Kyle Leahy: The right-hander is one of only eight NL relievers to work at least 30 innings so far this season, and he’s second among the eight in holds and Win Probability Added. His ERA has inflated after some turbulent relief appearance in recent times, but that ERA is a more than respectable 2.32. Leahy has moved into a more high-leverage role in the St. Louis bullpen, and he’s an important reason for the Cardinals’ improved pitching performance.
There’s a legitimate concern: Leahy’s strikeout rate is plummeting. In the opening month of the season, Leahy had a 25 percent strikeout rate over 18 and ⅓ innings. Since May 1, Leahy’s strikeout rate has dipped to 12.3 percent in his 12 and ⅔ innings. His ERA – 1.47 in the first month - is 3.55 since the start of May.
For the season, Leahy has done a nice job of neutralizing LH batters, holding them to a .234 average and .674 OPS. That said – and I’m just trying to be thorough here – in Leahy’s last six relief assignments left-swinging hitters have 9 hits in 16 at-bats for a .563 batting average.
There’s no question that Leahy has taken advantage of his opportunity in 2025. But as is the case with so many young players or pitchers, the initial success is often followed by a period of diminishing success. And they have to adapt.
5. Alec Burleson. He isn’t a kid, or anything. But at age 26, and with a fairly low total of 364 major-league games, Burleson’s bat began to come alive on April 22. In his last 97 plate appearances Burly has a .310 average with a .494 slug and .842 OPS. He was the team’s best hitter in May. But Burly’s challenge is the same as it ever was: stop swinging at too many pitches, hunt strikes to optimize damage, and use this more disciplined approach to establish more consistency.
RUNWAY: FLIGHT DELAYED
1. Nolan Gorman: His runway is still there, but it’s been shortened. Since the start of May, Gorman’s 43 plate appearances rank 11th on the team. Gorman has only 26 plate appearances since May 9, and since that day only Jose Barrero and Yohel Pozo have entered the batter’s box fewer times than Gorman.
In 107 plate appearances for the season, Gorman has a .187 average with a .297 slugging percentage and .577 OPS. He’s hit only one home run all season, and that came on March 30 in his first game of the season. Gorman has made legit progress in his quest to improve his plate discipline but needs to convert that into positive results.
Maybe the results will come, because Gorman has a .250 average and .350 slug in his last 20. Is that a start? Or just a blip on the radar? I suppose we’ll learn more because Cards manager Oli Marmol said he plans to play Gorman more during a busy June. Marmol told us that Tuesday during the “Gashouse Gang” show on KMOX.
2. Jordan Walker: I’m tempted to put an asterisk on this – but won’t – because Walker was coming on strong over a 13-game stretch before going on the IL with a sore wrist. Starting with spring training, this was Walker’s third injury of the season. But none of the injuries – knee … then wrist have been serious. That said, the continuity would benefit him.
Before the latest setback, Walker banged for a .333 average, .528 slug, four extra-base hits and 11 RBIs in 13 games. Strikeouts are a persistent problem. Walker’s current strikeout rate of 33 percent is the third worst among the 187 hitters that have at least 170 plate appearances this season. When Walker returns, the Cardinals can only hope he’ll resume mashing the way he did before hurting the wrist.
3. Michael McGreevy: It isn’t his fault. Over the last two seasons McGreevy has impressed at the big-league level with a 1.57 ERA in 28 and ⅔ innings.
The Cardinals have kept the righty starter at Triple A Memphis to stay in a routine and be ready if the Cardinals needed him to fill an injury void in their rotation.
McGreevy’s opportunity appears imminent; as the Cardinals enter their busiest month of the season to date, they will likely keep lefty Steven Matz in the bullpen and plug McGreevy into their plans for a six-man rotation. Smart.
It’s about time. And McGreevy appears to be ready. In four May starts for Memphis he went 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA and averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. At this point of the schedule, the St. Louis runway is a helluva lot more important than the Memphis runway. Or something like that.
4. Andre Pallante: The right-handed pitcher isn’t a baby bird. He’s pitched (off and on) in the majors since 2022 and has logged 360 innings. But Pallante definitely qualifies as a “runway” guy because he’s been handed a generous chance to secure his place in the big-league rotation.
After pitching very well as a starter over the final four months of the 2024 season, he’s relapsing in 2025. Too many walks. Too many homers. And a worsening problem against right-handed hitters. (Pallante is a reverse-split pitcher; he actually does better when facing LH batters.)
Pallante has a 4.96 ERA in his last eight starts. And for the season his Fielding Independent ERA (4.71) is a full run higher than his 3.71 FIP in 2024. This season right-handed batters have clobbered him for a .287 average, .452 slug and an .811 OPS. Pallante has created his own problems by walking an average of 4.2 RH batters per nine innings this season.
5. Ryan Fernandez: After displaying considerable promise as a rookie in 2024, the righty reliever was smoked for an 11.42 in his first 11 appearances for the Cardinals. And his failures in the seventh and eighth inning pretty much wrecked the bullpen until his demotion to Triple A Memphis on April 24. Fernandez may resurface. Though his overall ERA (13.50) at Memphis is alarming, Fernandez has shown significant improvement over his last six appearances, crafting a 1.13 ERA and a nasty 38.7 percent strikeout rate.
OTHERS WORTH MENTIONING
Luken Baker, Thomas Saggese, Michael Siani, Quinn Mathews.
– Baker was used sparingly by the Cardinals early this season and was sent back to the Triple A. He’s struggled at Memphis, hitting only .169 in 19 games but does have five homers.
– Saggesse looked good after the Cardinals brought him up early to cover for a Gorman injury. Saggese hit .341 with an .876 OPS in 41 at-bats, and at that point Cardinals fans thought he was Rogers Hornsby or something. Saggese is having a quieter performance for Memphis – .277 average, .403 slug – but he’s really heating up. And I think we’ll see him back in St. Louis at some point this season. But it makes little sense to have him up here unless he receives regular at-bats. And that isn’t the plan right now.
– We thought Mathews – the heralded lefty starting-pitcher prospect – would be a runway guy. But the Cardinals shut him down to address shoulder tightness and a mechanical issue. And he’s thrown only 7 and ⅔ innings since mid-April.
– Siani opened the season with the Cardinals and lasted 18 games before the team committed to Victor Scott as the regular in center field. Siani has actually improved his hitting at Memphis, cranking 11 extra-base hits and slugging .435 in 27 games. The big club will likely have a need for Siani along the way. But the front office declined to promote Siani when Walker went on the IL. They went with corner outfielder Ryan Vilade instead.
LET’S TALK ABOUT 32 GAMES IN 34 DAYS
– The Cardinals will face teams that have a winning record right now in 23 of the 32 games.
– The Cards will play seven games against the Cubs, with the first four scheduled for Busch Stadium. As of Tuesday morning, the Cubs had a four-game lead on the second-place Cardinals in the NL Central. In all, 17 of STL’s next 32 games will be played against their four division rivals.
– The Dodgers will be here soon for three weekend games at Busch Stadium. Fun fact of the day: through Monday, the Dodgers were only 2 and ½ games better than the Cardinals in the overall standings despite their $339 million payroll. That’s $199 million higher than the St. Louis payroll.
– A key series is looming for the Cardinals in Milwaukee: a four-game set that begins June 12. The Brewers are the hottest team in the National League these days, having won 12 of their last 15 games for an .800 winning percentage that’s the best in the NL since May 18. Milwaukee’s run includes an eight-game winning streak through Monday, and all of a sudden they’re only one game behind the Cardinals going into Tuesday.
The Brewers are getting a transfusion of starting pitching – with Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, and DL Hall returning from the IL. And their former co-ace, Brandon Woodruff, is set to make one more minor-league rehab start before rejoining the big-league rotation. Woodruff, who had shoulder surgery, hasn’t pitched in the majors since Sept. 23 of the 2023 season.
– For as hot as the Cardinals were, their 7-6 record since May 18 ranks sixth in the National League behind the Brewers (12-3), Cubs (10-3), Nationals (8-4), Mets (9-5) and Phillies (9-5.)
KEYS TO SUCCESS OVER THE NEXT 32
1. Will the St. Louis pitching depth hold up? This will be the most important test of them all; the Cardinals will have only one day off before getting a rest stop on July 3 – the day before opening a three-game set at Wrigley Field.
2. The bullpen will be busy, and that likely means additional work for secondary relievers who will shuttle back and forth between STL and Memphis.
3. Kyle Leahy must return to dominance if he can, but at the moment I’m more pessimistic than optimistic.
4. Bench depth. With 32 games and 34 games, it means more rest for lineup regulars. Marmol and the Cardinals will have to get more impact from their bench players. And that includes Gorman, who will have more starts.
5. This team has to hit more home runs. I appreciate the diversity of their attack, but it’s imperative to tap into more power. Going into Tuesday, the Cardinals’ average of 0.88 home runs per game ranks 25th in the majors. I’m not suggesting that this team become one dimensional. And I know the Cardinals still rank fourth in MLB in doubles per game. But the thunder and lightning of home runs can rearrange the scoreboard – and do it quickly.
The Cardinals have scored two runs or fewer in a game 19 times this season and are 4-15 in those contests. That's occurring too often. They failed to homer in 13 of the 15 losses – and 10 of the 15 losses came by a margin of three runs or less.
The Cards have been held to one run – or no runs – in 15 games this season and are 1-14 when it happens. They did not homer in 13 of their 14 defeats. And five of their 14 losses were settled by a margin of two runs or fewer.
When the Cardinals hit two or more home runs in a game this season, they’re 11-3. That includes a 6-0 mark when homering at least three times in a game. But when the Redbirds hit only one homer – or no homers – in a game, their record is 22-23.
5. The defense must be sharp and clean. The Cardinals are slipping in the defensive rankings. Their outs above average – which reached a high point of plus 26 earlier this season – is down to plus 20 now. And that’s only three more OAA than the Astros. Until recently the Cardinals had a sizable lead in outs above average over the other teams. The Cardinals have dropped to No. 13 in the majors with their 11 defensive runs saved. If this ominous trend continues, the St. Louis pitchers will pay the price.
6. Finally, avoid injuries and stay healthy. If that is even possible, of course. But I think fatigue could be part of the reason for this team’s defensive slump.
It will be important for Oli Marmol to make sure he rests regulars who are obviously showing signs of wearing down. That especially applies to Nolan Arenado. And I also think it applies to Lars Nootbaar (because of his injury history.) And I would also make sure to give Victor Scott some breathers. Per wRC+, Scott has performed 23 percent below average offensively since the start of May. And though Brendan Donovan is a relentless competitor, the Cardinals can’t afford to wear him out. Ditto for Masyn Winn. Just an extra day here and there should help.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.