I hope you are having a pleasant, stress-free Friday to get you started for the weekend.
The Cardinals are in Texas for a three-game set against a Rangers team that has the MLB’s best-starting pitching ERA (2.87) and a 28th-ranked offense that scores an average of 3.25 runs per game.
Before I get started on today’s Review, I wanted to talk about something. I try to keep my videos and columns separate. I don’t do a column and a video on the same specific topic on the same day. There will be some overlap, which is unavoidable. But I don’t want to do a video, save my notes from the video, and then repurpose them into a column on the same day, or the next day. Or the day after that.
But on occasion I will riff on the same topic, but that usually happens when there’s a reason to update something that may be 10 days or two weeks old. And some topics require frequent attention, and I’ll address that accordingly.
Several days ago I did a video on Cardinals manager Oli Marmol. We were all getting adjusted from the Memorial Day Weekend, and my number of views on the Marmol video were lower than usual. Which makes sense.
I don’t believe those who regularly watch the video also do the same with reading the Redbird Review – or vice versa – so it’s OK for me to occasionally do a column version about something I yapped about on video. So that’s what I’m doing today, but I’m using a different format to present my Marmol analysis. I’ll address some questions.
Is Oli Marmol winning the fans over? Is he earning more respect from Cardinals fans who weren’t necessarily fans of Marmol?
That’s difficult to gauge, but there seems to be a more favorable view of his work as the Cards manager. We’re seeing more comments concerning Marmol from viewers on the SportsHubSTL YouTube channel. When Marmol appears on the “Gashouse Gang” on KMOX each Tuesday, the real-time comments from fans are much warmer and supportive. It’s noticeable. And that’s what winning will do for any manager.
The Cardinals go into the Texas series with a 32-24 record and .571 winning percentage that ranks 8th among the 30 teams. The Redbirds have MLB’s second-best record (22-9) since April 24, and their 18-5 run in the last 23 games represents the highest winning percentage (.783) since May 4. The Cardinals are also 9-1-1 in their last 11 series.
All of that winning will increase any manager’s popularity. But I also know there’s a percentage of Cardinals fans who will refuse to give Marmol credit for anything. Some of this is based on the unpopularity of the man (John Mozeliak) who hired him. And the man (Mozeliak) who extended Marmol’s contract after saying he wouldn’t extend that contract. This increased the perception of Mamol being “Mo’s guy” or “Mo’s puppet.”
Marmol is also front and center in media visibility during a challenging time for the franchise. A lot of fans are disillusioned with ownership and Mozeliak’s longtime presence as the head of baseball operations. Fans resented the way Mozeliak fired Mike Shildt after the 2021 season and have – by extension – held that against Marmol.
Marmol squandered a great chance to win Game 1 of the 2022 wild-card series (vs. Philadelphia), and that didn’t help him. What followed next – the 71-91 disaster of 2023 – left fans wondering why Marmol wasn’t sacked immediately after the season. It isn’t easy to bounce back from severe blows. But Marmol is still in the process of doing just that.
Has Marmol strengthened his chances of returning as manager in 2026 for the final year of his current contract?
For now, I think the answer is obvious: Yes. Before the 2025 season The Athletic conducted a fan survey, and only 11.9 percent of the Cardinals fans that responded said they were “optimistic” in their outlook on the Cardinals. The only teams with lower optimism ratings were the Angels, Rockies and White Sox.
National and local media gave the Cardinals virtually no chance of making the 2025 postseason, and the doom-and-gloom forecasts were everywhere. Mozeliak confused just about everyone with his stated purpose for 2025. He said the Cardinals would “take a step back” and management slashed nearly $40 million from the 2024 payroll.
The Cardinals would “reset” by giving more extensive opportunities to younger hitters and pitchers. Only one free-agent, reliever Phil Maton, was signed – and at a cost of $2 million. That was the only free-agent expenditure.
The messaging was muddled. Mozeliak tried to sell the idea of the Cardinals having a winning season and an entertaining team. But the Cardinals were the opposite of going “all in” to win, and the vow to play younger Cardinals didn’t resonate the way Mozeliak hoped for. Because the fans weren’t all that excited by the players on the roster; shortstop Masyn Winn was the most notable exception.
So Marmol had many factors working against him going into 2025. His name was prominent on all of the “Manager Most Likely To Be Fired” columns.
Well, three managers have been fired already this season and Marmol keeps winning and winning to pull his team out of a slow start to the season.
Going into this weekend Marmol, his coaches and an underfunded roster of players had a higher winning percentage than teams managed by Terry Francona, Bruce Bochy, Alex Cora, Brian Snitker, Torey Luvollo, Kevin Cash and Bob Melvin. And Marmol had more wins than teams managed by the two Manager of the Year award winners in 2024 Steven Vogt (AL) and Pat Murphy (NL.)
In the overall National League standings, Marmol has won only two fewer games than a Mets team that has the extravagant benefit of a $328 million payroll – which is $188 million more than the STL payroll. Marmol and the Cardinals are 3 games out of first place in the NL Central, chasing a very good Cubs team that has a $197 million payroll – $57 million more than St. Louis.
Heading into the weekend the Cardinals have a higher winning percentage than five teams that have been bankrolled with payrolls higher than $200 million.
And the Cardinals are tied with the Padres, another team with a payroll that exceeds $200 million. And since Craig Counsell took over as Cubs manager before 2025, the acclaimed Counsell has only three more wins than Marmol despite a payroll gap of more than $100 million over the last two seasons.
So as I write this column, why would anyone believe Marmol is in danger of being fired? A collapse would change that assessment – a lot can happen both good and bad over the next four months – but Marmol is on solid ground as the season moves into June.
What is Marmol’s role in the Cardinals surprisingly good season?
— Marmol recognized the need to have a more modern-thinking coaching staff that specializes in teaching. And with the industrious and versatile Jon Jay and hitting coach Brant Brown joining bench coach Daniel Descalso, pitching coach Dusty Blake and first base coach Stubby Clapp – this is the best Cardinals coaching staff since Tony La Russa retired following the 2011 season. And Marmol hired all of these guys, and the staff is 100 percent unified in approach and messaging.
— Marmol and the staff talk a lot of baseball. Marmol has made it a custom of inviting coaches to his hotel suite after road games. They order food, have a couple of beverages, and spend a couple of hours talking ball. And Marmol encourages views that don’t match his own.
“The only way you can get better,” Marmol told me, “is diving into it as a staff and having honest, candid conversations that make us all better, including the players.”
— Marmol has cultivated a positive clubhouse environment by, among other things, encouraging players to take ownership of what the Cardinals want to be about as a team. Creating an identity. Developing a style of play.
A great example is emerging team leader Brendan Donovan, but he isn’t the only one. This team works hard to improve, and we see how hard they compete. But it’s a team that has joy in playing baseball. Marmol encourages them to have fun, and let their personalities flow. This is a much looser group. The Cardinals clubhouse is no longer a library or a funeral home.
Earlier this week Cards starting pitcher Sonny Gray spoke to the Washington Post about one factor in the team’s team’s surprise-party season.
“I think [the difference is] letting everybody be themselves. Not putting all this unreasonable amounts of pressure and [making] everybody be a certain way and this and that – just letting guys go play. Trying to create an environment where they can thrive and feel comfortable on a daily basis and just letting everyone go play with no handcuffs or anything.”
When I read that this morning I had a one-word reaction: awesome. A team should be serious about putting in the work to improve and play better ball. But if you make it so serious to the point where a team has no personality or flair or there’s a limit on spontaneous spirit – that’s a problem.
— For the second consecutive season, Marmol is proving he’s adept at running a bullpen. The bullpen was in terrible shape for the first month of the 2025 season, but Marmol and Blake took it apart and reassembled it on one off day (April 24.) Since April 25 the Cardinals have the second-best ERA in the majors.
— Marmol’s idea of going with a six-man rotation through multiple segments of the season is working. The Cardinals have the healthiest set of starting pitchers in the majors. The extra days of rest is part of the reason. Marmol and Blake have an efficient rotation that gets quick outs by relying on the team’s superb defense. And the efficiency – and the rest – has produced a rotation that ranks 10th in the majors in ERA and is tied for 5th with 25 quality starts.
And Marmol-Blake have pulled off a trick: the Cardinal starters are tied for 5th in the majors for averaging innings per start (5.5) and have done that while throwing the eighth-lowest average of pitches (85) per start.
It’s amazing how many times I hear complaints about Marmol removing starters too soon. There is a perfectly good reason for that – well, unless you would prefer to have the Cardinals crowd the Injured List with starting-pitching casualties.
– An even stronger emphasis on defense is paying off. No need to go into all of the details, because this is familiar ground by now. The Cardinals have the best defense in the majors, period. And they are the only team in the National League that doesn’t have a minus defensive rating at any of the fielding positions. This is essential support for a pitching staff that ranks 27th in MLB with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate.
— Marmol decided to put Matthew Liberatore in the starting rotation this season, and Liberatore is thriving in the role. He’s their best starter. Period. Marmol also put young reliever Kyle Leahy into more of a high-leverage role, and that’s been a significant factor in the bullpen’s turnaround.
— Marmol went with Victor Scott II as his starter in center field. It was the right call, with Scott emerging as a top-five MLB center fielder defensively. Scott gives the Cardinals their only real base-stealing threat, and he’s providing league-average offense despite a recent slump.
– Marmol also made three other decisions that are clicking: (1) moving Lars Nootbaar to the leadoff spot, (2) relocating Winn to the second lineup slot, and (3) going with Ivan Herrera at DH to take full advantage of his prowess offensively.
Is Marmol doing a better job than we realize?
My opinion? Yes. Absolutely. Look, I’ve criticized him for specific things, but that’s baseball, and all managers take heat for their decisions. But I don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. But the first responsibility of any manager is to get the most out of his roster, and Marmol clearly is doing just that. The St. Louis offense is 7th in the majors in runs per game, and 5th in Wins Above Replacement. The pitching staff is just outside of the top 10 in ERA at 11th – but is sixth in ERA (3.19) since Marmol and Blake fixed the bullpen. The defense is No. 1 in the majors. And the Cardinals lead the majors with 69 bases taken as runners.
Last season the Cardinals won 83 games with a bad offense, a decent rotation, and a good but not great defense. But Marmol’s bullpen management was remarkable, and the St. Louis bullpen was the foundation for the 83 wins. Based on run differential, the Cardinals’ record should have been 76-86.
Bernie, didn’t I hear you say something about Oli Marmol and Tony La Russa? Yes, if you watched my recent video on Marmol.
La Russa is one of the great managers in MLB history. And please understand that I am NOT trying to sell anyone on the idea that Marmol is TLR’s equal or something. That’s ridiculous.
But: I just wanted to remind everyone that forgot – or had no idea – that La Russa’s first four seasons as the Cardinals manager were pretty shaky.
In the four seasons (1996-1999) the Cardinals competed in one postseason, and had two losing seasons. Their three-season winning percentage from 1997 through 1999 was an abysmal .451. By the end of his fourth season as St. Louis manager, TLR had a .493 winning percentage. That seems like a misprint – but no, it’s a fact.
So unless the 2025 Cardinals fall apart, and it would have to be drastic, Oli Marmol will have a better record than Tony La Russa after the first four seasons of managing the Cardinals.
Through Wednesday, Marmol has managed the Cardinals for 542 regular-season games, and has a .515 winning percentage and a record that’s 16 games above .500.
Through his first 542 regular-season games as STL manager, La Russa had a .503 winning percentage and was four games over .500. But the 1999 Cardinals went 46-59 in their final 105 games that season, so at the end of the 2025 regular season Marmol’s record in his first four seasons will surpass La Russa’s record after the first four seasons – and the gap could be significant.
La Russa came to St. Louis as an established, successful manager. His teams in Oakland won two AL pennants and a World Series. Before Oakland, La Russa led the Chicago White Sox to the playoffs in 1983. They were a surprise team, and TLR was 38 years old at the time.
Marmol is 38 now. And the St. Louis managing job is his first in the majors. The 2023 season was awful, but Marmol responded well to the knockdown, and the Cards have a solid shot at having their second consecutive winning season during a time of transition, payroll cuts, and a rebuilding of the player-development model.
La Russa is one of the greatest managers who ever lived. He retired as Cardinals manager with the most career wins in franchise history.
Oli is highly unlikely to match Tony’s incredible body of work during his 35 seasons as a big-league manager. But the point I am making here is simple: it took La Russa some time to get rolling in St. Louis. And given the difference in their MLB experience levels as they came into the Cards manager job, wouldn’t you expect La Russa to have a better record than Marmol over their first four seasons as manager here?
And with all due respect, I don’t want to hear about La Russa taking over a rebuilding project in St. Louis. He actually took over at a really good time, because the Cardinals had a brand new ownership group, ready to jump-start the franchise by spending money to accelerate La Russa’s chances for instant success. Oh, and Walt Jocketty already was in place as the Cards general manager.
Between the owners’ enthusiasm for spending money and Jocketty’s superb front-office acumen, La Russa had an ideal setup. The Cardinals ranked 9th in payroll in 1996, and over Tony’s first four seasons they had an average payroll rank of just under No. 10.
La Russa’s 1996 club that won the division was boosted by additions of starting pitchers Andy Benes and Todd Stottlemyre, relievers Dennis Eckersley and Rick Honeycutt, 34-homer outfielder Ron Gant, third baseman Gary Gaetti, shortstop Royce Clayton and the return of center fielder Willie McGee as a free agent.
La Russa also inherited two terrific homegrown hitters in Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan – who were soon followed by J.D. Drew in 1998.
From 1997 through 1999, the Cardinals added slugger Mark McGwire, third baseman Fernando Tatis Sr., shortstop Edgar Renteria, and really fine bench pieces in Eric Davis, Shawon Dunston and Craig Paquette. The Cardinals also drafted and developed starting pitchers Matt Morris and Rick Ankiel.
Marmol was a rookie big-league manager for the final seasons of legends Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. Another legend, Adam Wainwright had his last good season as a starting pitcher in ‘22. And he inherited a good club managed by Mike Shildt. Marmol was promoted at a time when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado were about to finish first and third, respectively, in the 2022 National League MVP vote.
So yes, there were some advantages for Oli as a first-time manager. But he also was the manager when the Cardinals were starting to lose their way because of front-office failures and organizational rot. Not only that, but Marmol took over as manager as ownership began to decrease the payroll. As mentioned, during La Russa’s first four years as manager, the Cardinals had an average annual payroll ranking that put them between 9th and 10th.
In Marmol’s first four seasons as manager, the Cardinals have had an average annual payroll ranking of No. 15.
La Russa worked for the brilliant Jocketty and a highly motivated owner in Bill DeWitt Jr.
Marmol has worked for a stale Mozeliak and a less motivated DeWitt.
And yet: Marmol’s record at this point in his fourth season is better than La Russa’s record at this point in his fourth year.
I don’t know what the Oli Haters would say about that, but I’m sure they’ll come up with something.
The last word goes to one of TLR’s favorite players, Skip Schumaker, who was Marmol’s bench coach in 2022. Schumaker was voted NL Manager of the Year for 2023 after leading the underdog Marlins to a playoff spot.
This week Schumaker was interviewed by The Athletic baseball writer Katie Woo on the “Foul Territory” YouTube show.
Woo asked Schumaker about Marmol’s progression as a young manager.
"Well, I think each year you learn something," Schumaker said. "Either from your experience, your coaching staff, former guys, or different players. I think that he's grown into a manager that he really wants to be now.
“I had him his rookie year. I was learning Oli and he was learning me. We grew into this really good friendship and I will be friends with Oli forever because of how much I respect him.
“I think as a former manager, you always look back at how you could've done things better. Whether it was how you're getting guys better, talking to the group in the clubhouse, reacting to the media.
"All of these things you're learning as you grow into the manager you're trying to become. He's gotten to the playoffs and has taken young teams to places where a lot of media members didn't think they would get to so far.
“It's been really fun to also see him acquire the staff that he thinks is ready to take this group to the next level. In my opinion, you have to have a really good coaching staff to cover your blind spots."
Thanks to Schumaker for such an excellent perspective. Skip certainly knows all about this subject.
And thanks to you for reading …
– Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.