After giving their fans a captivating and entertaining brand of baseball in sweeping the Twins, the Cardinals opened a three-game set against the Angels on Monday night.
Instead of looking like a new team in building their 3–0 start, the Cardinals went back to 2024 in a momentum-slowing 5–4 loss to the Halos in 10 innings.
The setting at Busch Stadium was reminiscent of 2024, with views of many acres of unoccupied seats. It was a Monday night, yes. And even though a smaller crowd was expected, the landscape had a barren look that was a little unsettling.
The Cardinals had an announced attendance of 21,206, the smallest since the current Busch Stadium opened in 2006. This does not include the pandemic-impacted 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Monday’s loss was weird.
The Angels scored five runs despite getting only four hits in 10 innings. But the home team offered generous assistance; four of the five runs were scored by Angels who reached base via walk. St. Louis pitchers walked five batters, and 80 percent of them scored.
The Angels scored two runs in the 10th without the benefit of a hit. One run came in on a fielder’s choice ground ball, and the other was plated by a sacrifice fly. The fielder’s choice was a bad choice — with second baseman Brendan Donovan inexplicably making the throw home to prevent the lead runner from scoring. Donny had no chance on that play, and he passed up getting a sure out elsewhere.
The Cardinals lost despite out-hitting the Angels 11 to 4. Well, I suppose this is no surprise considering that the Cardinals went 3 for 19 (.158) with six strikeouts when teammates were on base. And the Birds were just 2 for 10 with four strikeouts when batting with runners in scoring position. Bitten by that 2024 RISP snake again, the Cardinals left 12 men on base. The crisp situational hitting we saw in the Minnesota series was absent Monday.
Manager Oli Marmol made some questionable decisions. He could have used Chris Roycroft in relief for a second inning (the seventh) after Roycroft needed only six pitches to get two quick outs in the sixth after entering to relieve starter Miles Mikolas. The bullpen could have been set up differently for the rest of the game. An unacceptable two-out walk by Ryan Fernandez set up L.A.’s tying run in the seventh. If Fernandez does his job there, then we aren’t talking about the Roycroft decision.
The other second guesses included subbing in catcher Pedro Pages for starting catcher Ivan Herrera to begin the seventh. That led to Pages getting two at-bats over the final four innings, and Herrera is the better hitter. (Though Pages, who bashed a three-run homer Sunday, isn’t a pushover and might improve at the plate this season.) I do understand Marmol’s thinking there. Herrera made the last out in the sixth, wouldn’t have batted again until the eighth, the Angels have fast runners, and Pages is more capable of snuffing base-stealing attempts.
And some fans believe Nolan Gorman should have been sent up to pinch-hit for Winn in the bottom of the 10th, with two out, a runner on first, and a right-handed reliever on the mound for the Angels. Gorman had a terrific day at the plate Sunday — 3 for 4 including a homer — and this normally would have been a good spot for him. But Winn struck out swinging. This decision, in part, was based on the Cardinals’ debatable roster construction. They don’t have a backup shortstop, so removing Winn from the game can be a potential problem. OK. Then maybe have a true backup shortstop on the club? Even without one, the Cardinals could have tied the game in the 10th on an RBI double by Gorman — or won the game on a two-run homer. If the 10th inning ends in a tie, Gorman would stay in the game, take over at second base, with Donovan moving to shortstop.
I’m not rabid about any of these second guesses, but I think they’re worth discussing, and this is the way it’s done in baseball. Scrutinizing the manager is part of the entertainment — and always has been.
- I wasn’t crazy about the decision by Willson Contreras to finesse a sac bunt and advance Lars Nootbaar to second base following Noot’s leadoff single. But even after sacrificing an out, the Cardinals still had a chance to tie the game with Luken Baker, Nolan Arenado, and Pages coming up. But Baker struck out, Arenado was intentionally walked, and Pages flew out.
- In conclusion: The second-guessing is fair and has some merit. But the No. 1 reason the Cardinals lost this game was their poor performance in failing to cash in with runners on base and runners in position to score. This brought back memories of 2024.
DAILY VIBE CHECK: Muted. This was a downer of a loss, but the Cardinals are 3–1. They can get back on track starting tonight, but it would be gross for them to lose a series to the Angels — a team that’s batting .185 with a .532 OPS after four games.
LARS NOOTBAAR, STAR: What a fabulous start to the 2025 campaign. Nootbaar was at it again Monday, reaching base four times in five plate appearances. He had two walks and two hits, including a leadoff homer for a 1–0 lead in the first.
Four games into this voyage, Nootbaar leads the Cardinals in batting average (.462), on-base percentage (.632), slugging percentage (.923), OPS (1.555), Isolated Power (.462), home runs (2), RBIs (5), walks (5), and runs scored (5). He’s done all of this in just 19 plate appearances.
Specifically as a leadoff hitter, Nootbaar leads National League leadoff men (minimum 10 plate appearances) in batting average, on-base rate, slugging, OPS, and wRC+. He’s tied with Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber for most home runs and RBIs from the leadoff spot.
HOW TO LOSE A 3–1 LEAD: That was the score — advantage Cardinals — after five innings Monday. From the start of the sixth inning until the end of the game, the Cardinals managed just four singles (and no other hits) in 15 at-bats. They did walk three times, but any chance of reawakening the offense was terminated by their 0-for-6 skunking with runners in scoring position over the final five innings.
ABOUT IVAN HERRERA: The most important and obvious early-season takeaway? Marmol doesn’t trust Herrera behind the plate when the Cardinals hold a close lead in the later innings. Pages started and completed Sunday’s win over the Twins, but Marmol has pulled Herrera over defensive concerns in the other three games.
It’s not crazy, because Herrera hasn’t thrown out a base stealer this season, with opponents exploiting his weak throwing arm four times in four steal attempts. Since the start of last season, Herrera has thrown out only four of 63 runners. That’s a caught-stealing rate of 6.4 percent. And though Cardinals pitchers don’t do enough to hold runners close to the base, a 6.4% caught-stealing rate is awful. The idea of Herrera being the primary catcher in 2025? It’s probably time to revise and update our expectations.
And to those who’ve said the Cardinals will eventually have to move Herrera to a new position — well, I don’t disagree. The question: do the Cardinals think enough of Herrera’s offense to convert him to DH? If they do, based on the current roster, the pieces won’t fit with Herrera at DH. But what else is new? That’s a Cardinals Thing.
A CLOSER LOOK AT MASYN WINN: In the first four games, the Cards’ shortstop is 0 for 14 with two walks and seven strikeouts. He’s hitless in six at-bats with runners in scoring position. After hitting well (.251) on two-strike counts last season, Winn is 0 for 12 with seven strikeouts in two-strike counts so far in 2025. In 16 plate appearances, he’s put the ball in play only seven times.
There are some positive signs, however. I know some of you don’t like the Statcast metrics, which is fine. But there’s value in those numbers; we can use them to see what a hitter is doing well, and to identify problems. For example: Winn has a strong 57% hard-hit rate — up from 32.7% last season. He has a good average exit velocity (92.7%). His barrel rate is way up from 2024.
That said, we can point to some issues:
— Per FanGraphs, Winn has a swinging-strike rate that’s nearly doubled from his 2024 whiff-swing percentage. That’s obviously a major factor in his horrendous 43.8% strikeout rate so far.— The swing-miss problem is undoubtedly tied to Winn’s change in launch angle in a quest for more home-run power. Last season his launch angle was 13 degrees; this year it’s 25 degrees. That’s within the so-called sweet spot range, but it isn’t working — at least not yet.— Last year, Winn was annoyingly effective at going the other way for hits. He had 46 opposite-field hits in 135 at-bats (.341). In the first four games of 2025, he’s hit only one ball to the opposite field. His opposite-field rate has dropped from 28% to 14%.
WILLSON CONTRERAS: Winn isn’t alone in his struggles. Contreras is 0 for 18 in his four games, and his swing timing is clearly off. Combined, Contreras and Winn are 0 for 32 with a 40% strikeout rate. They’re 0 for 10 (six strikeouts) with runners in scoring position.
NOLAN ARENADO: He had an RBI single last night and is 6 for 15 (.400) on the season. A couple of his at-bats weren’t so hot Monday, but he’s off to a solid start.
CARDS VS. LEFTIES: This was a problem for the Redbirds in 2024, when they ranked 22nd in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS vs. left-handed pitchers. Their OBP (.299) against lefties ranked 25th.
They did a good job getting to Anaheim’s lefty starter Tyler Anderson, who allowed two homers, a double, six hits, and three earned runs in five innings. But Angels manager Ron Washington used five relievers over the final five innings, and the Cardinals came up with just four singles and three walks — no runs until the 10th (thanks to the ghost runner).
More problematic: STL’s struggles against lefty relievers Reid Detmers, Garrett McDaniels, and Brock Burke, who combined for 3⅔ innings of scoreless relief.
With right-handed hitters Luken Baker and Pedro Pages in the lineup, the Cardinals didn’t have much to counter Anaheim’s lefty bullpen. The three lefties held St. Louis’s right-handed bats to a pair of singles in 10 at-bats — both by Jordan Walker. The rest went 0 for 8 with four strikeouts.
MILES MIKOLAS: He wasn’t bad, allowing two hits and two runs in 5⅔ innings. But his two walks were both converted into runs. Through four games, Cardinals starters have a 2.95 ERA. I’m curious to see how Matthew Liberatore fares Tuesday in his first start.
CARDS SEE OLD “FRIEND,” KYLE HENDRICKS: The longtime Cubs starter makes his first start as an Angel Tuesday at Busch Stadium. Hendricks had a rough 2024, posting a 5.92 ERA in 131 innings. The Cubs moved on from him after the season.
But Hendricks has owned the Cardinals: 14–4 with a 2.51 ERA in 27 starts. In his last 19 starts against STL, he posted a 2.04 ERA. The Cards scored more than three earned runs only once in those 19 games.
Last July, Hendricks shut out the Cardinals for seven innings. He made STL hitters look clueless — again. Does he have enough left in the tank to repeat that? We’ll see if the Cardinals have a competent plan this time.
Thanks for reading —– Bernie