There are plenty of offerings on DraftKings when looking at season-long player props for St. Louis Cardinals hitters.
My stance on season-long player props in general is if I’m going to bet an over, I need to LOVE the over. I see it all the time in the NFL and MLB as well - especially for pitchers. There can be a player having a great season and pacing to go way over his prop, but if he suffers an injury where he misses a few games in football or several weeks in baseball, your over is toast. So I recommend exercising caution when betting an over for season-long player props.
Let’s take a look at some of the notable props available for Cardinals hitters, and for each one, I’ll give my opinion on whether you should TAKE IT or LEAVE IT. Keep in mind there is no under option with these props - the only option is to take the over or pass.
Nolan Arenado - 20+ home runs is -200, 25+ home runs is +140, and 80+ RBI is -120 - LEAVE THEM
Arenado is an aging player in decline, and I don’t think there’s a way to turn that around. Maybe he gets to 20 home runs, but there’s no way I’m taking -200 on that after he hit only 16 bombs last season. I think the only way he reaches 25 homers and 80 RBI is if he gets traded to a team with a ballpark that’s great for his swing - like Houston with the Crawford boxes.
Willson Contreras - 25+ home runs is +115 - TAKE IT
25 home runs would be a career high for Contreras, but I think he’s going to reach that mark this season. Contreras has cracked at least 20 home runs in four of the last five full seasons (not counting the 2020 COVID season). The only season he didn’t get to 20 was last year with all the injuries, but he still blasted 15 bombs in just 84 games.
Contreras has been particularly injury-prone when he’s behind the plate, but his injury risk is reduced significantly this season with the Cardinals moving him to first base. With a full season at first base and DH, I think it’s more likely than not that he sets a career high in at-bats. I’d take the 25+ home runs on DraftKings at any plus money price.
Lars Nootbaar - 20+ home runs is +115 - LEAVE IT
Nootbaar has never hit more than 14 homers in a season. I can’t trust him to stay healthy for a full season until he shows he can do it.
Alec Burleson - 20+ home runs is +130 - LEAVE IT
With Arenado still on the roster, someone is going to suffer an at-bat shortage - and Burleson looks like the most likely candidate at this point. I can’t bet this prop without the guarantee of enough playing time.
Masyn Winn - 20+ home runs is +145, 70+ RBI is +100, and 160+ hits is +120 - TAKE THE HITS
Winn finished with 157 hits last season. He would have reached the 160 mark if not for a September swoon where he hit just .196 in the final month of the season. Expect Winn to have more finishing stamina this season and surpass 160 hits.
Brendan Donovan - 70+ RBI is +105 - LEAVE IT
Donovan hit this number last season by finishing with 73 RBI, but he played in 153 games. If he has one IL stint, I don’t see him hitting the 70 RBI mark.
Victor Scott - 30+ stolen bases is -140 and 40+ stolen bases is +155 - LEAVE IT… FOR NOW
Keep an eye on this one. If Scott is tabbed as the Opening Day center fielder, I’ll sprinkle a little bit on the 40+ stolen bases at +155. I’d rather do that than take 30+ steals with the -140 juice.
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer