SLU (13-9, 6-3 Atlantic 10) at UMass (10-12, 5-4 Atlantic 10), 6pm Tuesday
Spread: SLU -1.5
Total: 150.5
KenPom projection: SLU 74, UMass 73
Coming off two intense home games at Chaifetz Arena last week, the Saint Louis University Billikens head back on the road to face UMass on Tuesday night in Amherst.
SLU split their two games last week with VCU and Dayton and now reside in third place in the Atlantic 10, two games behind league-leading George Mason.
The Billikens are now a longshot to win the Atlantic 10 regular season championship at +2900 on FanDuel, so realistically they need to be setting their sights on finishing in the top 4 in order to earn a double-bye in the conference tournament. And beating UMass on Tuesday would go a long way towards accomplishing that goal, with the Minutemen just one game behind SLU in the A10 standings.
The oddsmakers have this game as essentially a toss-up, and I agree that it’s tough to pick a winner. But I see value on the total.
The Billikens have been an under machine all season long, with the under hitting in 16 of their 20 games against Division One opponents.
UMass plays at a faster tempo than any team in the A10, but they are a horrible shooting team. For the season, the Minutemen shoot just 42% from the field (second worst in the A10) and make just 28% of their 3-point attempts (worst in the A10). Don’t expect those marks to improve against a Billikens defense that ranks first in conference play in both effective field goal percentage against and 3-point percentage against.
It also helps that both teams shoot under 70% from the free throw line.
Each of SLU’s last eight games have finished under this total of 150.5, and 12 of the last 16 games for UMass have finished under this total as well.
Pick: Under 150.5