When the St. Louis Blues acquired Mason McTavish from the Anaheim Ducks for two first-round picks at the NHL draft, the move was framed as a high-upside bet on a 23-year-old former third-overall pick. The question now facing Blues fans is straightforward: Can the 6-foot-1, 219-pound center deliver 60-plus points in his first season wearing the note? Taking away all of the external factors, the coaching changes, anything else to that nature, let's look at this from a purely statistical standpoint.
McTavish’s track record shows both promise along with some recent frustration. After some modest production in his first two NHL seasons, he broke out in 2024-25 with 22 goals and 52 points in 76 games, which would put him around a 56-point pace over a full 82-game season. That season saw him hit a career high in ice time (16:53 per game), shots (180), and even-strength production. His power-play work was also solid, adding 12 points with 51 shots on the man advantage.
The following season told a different story. In 2025-26, McTavish posted just 17 goals and 41 points in 75 games. Ice time dropped more than a minute per game, shot volume fell to 146, and power-play production slipped to 11 points with a reduced 30 shots. Giveaways rose and his plus-minus remained in the negative, though he stayed physical with a career-high 95 hits.
Now, it is important to note that the dip coincided with a contract holdout that caused him to miss training camp, followed by inconsistent usage and healthy scratches late in the season.
Still, the underlying tools are there. McTavish has shown he can win faceoffs at a respectable rate (peaking above 51 percent), possesses a heavy shot, and plays a physical north-south game that fits the modern NHL. His power-play faceoff percentage has been above 50 percent in three of the last four seasons, and he has already proven capable of 12-14 power-play points when given consistent looks.
The move to St. Louis should offer a genuine reset for the 23-year-old. McTavish has publicly embraced the fresh start and stated that center is his natural position is exactly where the Blues project him. Depending on the matchup, could swap in and out with Dalibor Dvorsky as the No. 2 Center behind Robert Thomas. A more structured environment, better linemates, and a clearer role should help stabilize his ice time and usage on both special teams and at even strength.
For McTavish to reach 60 points in 2026-27, several things need to align. He must regain the shot volume and ice time from his 2024-25 peak while cutting down on giveaways. On the power play, returning to 45-55 shots would likely push his man-advantage totals back into double digits. Most importantly, he needs the consistency that was just simply note there last season.
McTavish is entering his prime with five years remaining on his contract. The statistical foundation for a 50- to 60-point season is more than there. Whether he clears the 60-point threshold in his first season with the Blues will depend on how quickly he adapts to his new surroundings and reclaims the usage he enjoyed at his peak.
For a team that invested two first-round picks, that outcome would be an immediate win.