JJ Wetherholt is having a captivating, intriguing rookie season. It’s also unusual, at least for now, with the Cardinals only two months into the new baseball year. There are many miles to travel to reach 162 games.
I really don’t know the last time the Cardinals had a rookie who was quite like JJ Wetherholt. And I base that on his all-around game and a diverse skillset that cannot be severely compromised by a single manifest weakness. Subject to change, of course.
We could be witnessing history being made in real time. For now, let’s set the table by talking about a rich franchise history of Cardinals rookies.
— The Cardinals have had superior rookie hitters. Machines. Future legends. Future Hall of Famers. Albert Pujols in 2001. Rogers Hornsby in 1916. Johnny Mize in 1936. Stanley Frank Musial in 1942. And that’s just a partial listing.
— Six Cardinals won the National League Rookie of the Year award: Wally Moon in 1954, Bill Virdon in 1955, Bake McBride in 1974, Vince Coleman in 1985, relief pitcher Todd Worrell in 1986, and Pujols in 2001.
— The Cardinals have had rookie hitters with a potent mix of high-OBP and a blast-off power. Heck, the 1930 Redbirds had three such rookies in 1930: George Watkins, George Fisher and Gus Mancuso.
— The Runnin’ Redbirds had an extraordinary base-stealing rookie, Coleman, swipe 125 bags in ‘85.
— Rookie Brendan Donovan won the Gold Glove as the NL’s best utility player in 2022.
I mentioned Todd Worrell, but for relevancy, I’m keeping this discussion confined to position players. And Wetherholt definitely has a position; he’s exceptional at second base.
I’ve been working on this one for a while.
Let’s get down to it, shall we?
— Through the end of May, in his first 56 games of the 2026 season, JJ Wetherholt had accumulated 2.5 fWAR.
— That’s the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement, which encompasses offense, defense and baserunning.
— This puts JJ on a pace for approximately 7.2 fWAR over a 162-game schedule.
— In the Baseball Reference model of Wins Above Replacement (bWAR), Wetherholt is tracking to an 8.4 bWAR pace over 162 games.
At the end of May, Wetherholt was busy constructing an entire network of skill, built through outstanding plate discipline, elite defense at second base, above-average running of the bases and an overall offensive profile that translated to 23 percent above the league average per wRC+.
And with nine home runs and seven stolen bases entering June, Wetherholt was on pace to finish the season with 25 home runs and 19+ steals. No Cards rookie has ever engineered a season that has a minimum 20-20 combination of homers and base thefts.
OK, we’re dealing with hypotheticals here. But if Wetherholt banks 8.4 bWAR and 7.2 fWAR by the end of the 2026 campaign, he would script his name into history.
If Wetherholt can get to 8.4 bWAR and 7.2 fWAR, he would move above The Great Pujols for the most valuable rookie season St. Louis Cardinals history … and not only that, but JJ would clear Albert by nearly two full wins of WAR.
This shows us how much value a premium middle infielder can generate when combining masterful plate discipline with 99th-percentile defense.
And there’s more.
As our friend Josh Jacobs wrote at MLB.com, Wetherholt is navigating his way to what could be the most valuable performance by a rookie second baseman in major-league history.
Currently, the leaderboard for rookie second basemen lines up this way, and I’m displaying both WAR platforms:
+ Lou Klein, 1943 Cardinals, 6.5 bWAR and 5.2 fWAR.
+ Joe Morgan, 1965 Astros, 5.8 bWAR and 5.1 fWAR.
+ Bump Wills, 1977 Rangers, 4.7 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR.
+ Willie Randolph, 1976 Yankees, 5.0 bWAR and 4.6 fWAR.
You might be wondering about The Rajah, aka Rogers Hornsby. Here’s the deal: Hornsby didn’t break into the majors as a second baseman; in 1915 and 1916, he mostly played shortstop and third base. So he doesn’t fit into our “Best Rookie 2B” contest.
To summarize: Bump Wills holds the all-time rookie 2B mark in fWAR with 5.4. And Lou Klein has the No. 1 spot in bWAR, with 6.5.
So for JJ Wetherholt to claim the most valuable rookie season by an MLB second baseman, he’d have to knock off Wills in fWAR, and then bump Klein from the top spot in bWAR.
(I mean … seriously? JJ Wetherholt might top Joe Morgan’s rookie second-base season in a WAR blowout? It’s amazing to even think about that.)
However … It’s essential for me to add this to our breakdown: rest of the season projection models are conservative with rookies, typically accounting for expected regression in areas such as batting average on balls in play, and runs-saved defensive metrics. Even then, Wetherholt is in good shape in the quest to come out ahead in both WAR platforms.
Obviously, this could change due to a significant and lasting performance decline, or a sizable absence due to injury.
Question: what about Wetherholt’s potential single-season place among Cardinals’ second basemen in a more modern context?
Old-timers Hornsby and Frankie Frisch dominate the WAR leaderboards for best season by a Cardinals’ second baseman, but we’d have to go back to the 1920s for that.
If we want to look at it through a more modern lens, this is what we see. And again, this applies to veterans as well as rookie players.
– Red Schoendienst maxed out at 6.7 bWAR during his peak 1953 season.
– Tom Herr had a legendary 110-RBI season in 1985, but his overall value didn't cross the 8.0 bWAR threshold.
– Kolten Wong saved a lot of runs, and Tommy Edman’s defensive versatility was a gift, but neither Cardinal reached the 7.0 bWAR plateau in a single season.
OK, so you may be asking: if we go by traditional baseball-card stats, nothing in Wetherholt’s early-2026 resume really screams “WOW!” at us …
So what makes the STL rookie second baseman so valuable?
JJ’s All-Around Value Package
Wetherholt's underlying metrics are a case study in professional maturity and refinement. I would even add “advanced wisdom” to the description. His offensive value starts with his elite swing decisions, his hard contact, and a syncing timing for locating the sweet spot when connecting on a pitch, instead of selling out by gunning for raw power.
Here’s how the Wetherholt Statcast profile looked through the first 56 games at the end of May …
1. Plate Discipline. He won’t expand the zone on a whim. He makes pitchers work instead of letting them have an easier time. While Wetherholt is less aggressive on pitches in the zone – which should change in time – he won’t go fishing. His superbly low chase rate (22.8%) is in the 86th percentile. His low strikeout rate (17.5%) is in the 73rd percentile. His whiff-swing rate (22.8%) is in the 60th percentile. His in-zone contact rate, 81.2%, is in the 44th percentile and the one area that could use improvement. And JJ doesn’t swing at strikes as much as I assumed. But we must understand something here: by taking so many pitches, Wetherholt has kept his walk rate inflated to 11.3 percent. He’s in the 71st percentile for walk rate. That’s really good! So there is a tradeoff.
2. Quality of Contact. When Wetherholt swings, he seeks to optimize by stroking line drives and hard-hit volleys. His bat speed is closer to league average, but his fantastic barrel control means he’s squaring up on pitches, and that’s important. Wetherholt’s 47.4 hard-hit rate is in the 82nd percentile. His sweet-spot launch angle rate (38.2%) is in the 81st percentile. He’s in the 72nd to 78th percentile in average exit velocity, squared-up rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. This is why, overall, Wetherholt stands in the 75th percentile in Batting Run Value.
3. Terrific defense and baserunning. Going into June, Statcast had Wetherholt graded in the 99th percentile in Fielding Run Value with +10 runs saved. He’s second among MLB second basemen with +8 defensive runs saved. And Statcast has JJ in the 97th percentile for base-running value. His value (on both WAR platforms) gets a superboost from his special defense and slick, opportunistic navigation on the bases.
4. The All-Encompassing picture: These all-around performance diagnostics – which are truly first rate as a body of work – are rare for a rookie. Wetherholt isn’t just hanging on and hoping to pick up a little knowledge as he goes along and settles for decent numbers during his learning phase. No. This 23-year-old is striving and thriving. And he’s one confident dude.
5. JJ Wetherholt enhances the Cardinals’ chances of winning on both sides of the ball. He leads the Cardinals – and is sixth in the NL and 10th overall – in Win Probability Added. (WPA.) That’s validation … or perhaps a reaffirmation of his sweeping value to the Cardinals.
I would never say the rookie Wetherholt of 2026 is better than the rookie Pujols of 2001. We’re not talking about a fantasy draft here; Pujols’ killer offensive numbers would predictably shape the discussion and carry the debate.
Oh, and by the way: Wetherholt must prove himself – over and over again – during the next four months. Will he wear down? Can he sustain his pace?
But to be fair to Wetherholt, WAR value is derived from offense, defense and baserunning. All three dimensions. And while Pujols had a spectacular rookie season, he broke into the majors at a time when hitters dominated and terrorized pitchers, and a batter’s hitter’s numbers were inflated during a “Wild West, Anything Goes” Era of baseball.
Pujols was still a work in progress defensively as a rookie. He also stole one base in 2001, and hadn’t yet developed his keen instinct for running the bases. That would come later.
If skeptics scoff at Wetherholt for not driving in 100 runs and slamming 30 homers this season, as part of the “top rookie” palaver, that’s OK. But you must measure this rookie by his all-around game – which is a complete game.
Wetherholt creates runs by getting on base at a high rate, running the bases to move himself in position to score, and he’s capable of stinging the opponents with shots of power.
And while knocking in runs is great, saving runs on defense is really important. That shouldn’t be overlooked – especially with a STL pitching staff that yields a high contact rate and gives up a lot of hard-hit balls that land in play.
An RBI up the middle is a successful play, but it’s also a successful play to save a run with up-the-middle defense.
JJ does both. I don’t think any of the old-school aficionados ever held Ozzie Smith’s light offensive profile in contempt and marked him down because he didn’t post multiple 30-homer, 100 RBI seasons.
Ozzie’s remarkable value was distributed in other ways that were just as important than home runs – and then some. Ozzie showed us the value of erasing runs.
Wetherholt isn’t Ozzie defensively – no one will ever meet that standard – but the rookie is essential to his team’s run prevention. And his offense and baserunning are clear assets.
Among the many National League players with 200 plate appearances this season, only two have a combination of at least 1.9 bWAR offensively and 1.1 bWAR defensively: Wetherholt and Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages.
And JJ is a top-five NL player in total bWAR so far this season. Wetherholt has amassed more bWAR than NL position-player dignitaries such as Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, James Wood, Brice Turang, Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber.
Wetherholt’s bWAR tops all NL rookies. And by the end of the 2026 season, JJ could be the most valuable rookie in Cardinals history, and the most valuable rookie second baseman in MLB history.
And that would deserve a “Wow!”
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.