Game Information
Missouri Tigers (19-9) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-15)
Time: 12pm CT Saturday
How to watch: SEC Network
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Missouri -1.5
Total: 154.5
KenPom Projection
Mizzou 77, Mississippi State 76
The Missouri Tigers go for their 20th win of the season on Saturday when they head to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The Tigers can also clinch a winning record in the SEC with a victory, and I like their chances against a team that appears to be a very good matchup on paper.
Mizzou turns the ball over too much, ranking 246th out of 365 Division One teams in turnover rate. However, Mississippi State is 360th in the country in forcing turnovers.
The Tigers also have difficulty defending the 3, ranking #307 in that department. Fortunately, the Bulldogs struggle from deep. They hit just 32.5% of their 3-point attempts (259th in the country).
Mississippi State also shoots just 67% from the free throw line (340th in the nation), so the Bulldogs will likely miss plenty of chances at the stripe as well.
Missouri should win this game as long as Josh Hubbard doesn’t go nuclear. The Mississippi State star guard had a three-game stretch earlier this month where he scored 31, 32, and then 46 points. But regression to the mean has come for Hubbard over the last two games, as he has scored a total of just 24 points while shooting 8-of-33 from the floor and 4-of-18 from 3.
It wouldn’t stun me if Hubbard goes off and Mississippi State is able to pull out the win. But I’m confident enough to place a wager on Mizzou to go on the road and take care of business in what shouldn’t be a very hostile environment. This matchup reminds me a lot of Missouri’s trip to South Carolina earlier this month, and the Tigers smacked the Gamecocks around and won by 19 points.
Pick: Mizzou -1.5 at -105 on DraftKings (bet to -2.5)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every week on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer