BERNIE BITS
Or as I like to call them, bits-ing to all fields. Here are some opening takes …
1) The Cardinals signed an interesting right-handed hitter in outfielder Nelson Velazquez. A take-a-look minor league contract for a dude who is only 27 years old and had a booming 2023 big-league season before lapsing into inconsistency in 2024. In ‘23 Velazquez displayed impressive metrics in bat speed, batting run value, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage (.570.) That good stuff translated into 17 homers, a .586 slugging percentage and .888 OPS in 179 plate appearances. In 189 career MLB games, Velazquez has a .433 slugging percentage, overall, and has done damage to lefty pitchers. He can play all three outfield positions. Has a strong throwing arm. Crushes fastballs. The challenge will be doing better against breaking balls and offspeed offerings. After reconstructing his swing during a stint in Mexico, Velazquez returned to the U.S. in 2025 and slugged .658 in 49 games for the Pirates’ Triple A affiliate.
2) Awesome stat: since foolishly firing head coach Mike Vrabel at the end of the 2023 season, the hopelessly dumb Tennessee Titans have won six games since the start of the 2024 season. Vrabel? Including the postseason, he’s won six games since Dec. 28. Vrabel has led the New England Patriots to a 17-3 record and a spot in the Super Bowl in his first season as head coach. But the Patriots are a 4 and ½ point underdog to Seattle in Super Bowl 60.
3) If St. Louis Rams fans want to hate the Patriots all over again, here’s a reminder to fire you up: The biggest play of Super Bowl 34 was a pick-six interception by Ty Law to give New England a 7-3 lead. It was the first of three Rams turnovers that led to their downfall in a 20-17 upset loss to Belichick-Brady. The pick-six was caused by Vrabel, who blitzed in unblocked, and smashed into quarterback Kurt Warner in a blatantly obvious helmet-to-helmet assault. Surely, there would be a flag for a personal flag against Vrabel … but no … the officials swallowed their whistles that day. Despite New England late hits, the head shots, the strategic decision to illegally tackle Marshall Faulk early and often before he could get out of the backfield and into a pass pattern, the Patriots were penalized only 5 times for 31 yards. In fact, the Rams were penalized six times for 39 yards. Coach Belichick instructed his team to pound on the Rams (outside of the rules) all day – especially Faulk and wide receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt – because he correctly believed the officials would decline to litter the Super Bowl field with a large number of penalty flags. And sure enough, that gutless crew looked the other way as Faulk and Rams receivers were getting mugged on most plays.
4) Three things to add to that: Vrabel is a helluva coach, really terrific, and I won’t take that away from him. He’s brilliant … I still don’t understand why the Rams started Rod Jones at right tackle instead of Ryan Tucker. Vrabel ran right by Jones to deliver the punishing blow on Warner that changed Super Bowl 36 … and Belichick had the New England defense set up in nickel or dime coverage on 75 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Though Warner passed for 365 yards, the Rams scored only three times in 12 possessions. The Patriots disrupted the Rams’ passing-game precision enough times to keep Warner and Co. off the scoreboard. And Law’s pick six definitely rattled the Rams.
5) The Cardinals invited 27 non-roster players to spring training. One was starting pitcher Ixan Henderson, who was voted Texas League pitcher of the year last season for the Double A Springfield team. Henderson won’t make the big club out of camp – but if he stays healthy, he’ll arrive in the majors sooner than anticipated.
6) St. Louis U is 19-1 and ranked 21st in the AP Poll, and 24th in the Ken Pomeroy ratings. (Which is even more impressive than being No. 21 in the human-being voter polls. SLU is good, very good. And SLU is fun, very fun. These are a few of my favorite stat things, culled from KenPom.com …
7) SLU is one of only 12 D-1 teams to rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, while ranking at least 39th in offensive efficiency.
8) The Billikens are ranked No. 1 in effective field goal percentage (60.5%) on offense … and are also ranked No. 1 defensively in the same category, with opponents limited to 41.9% in effective field goal percentage against SLU/
9) Symmetry I: the Saint Louis offense is No. 5 nationally in three-point shooting percentage – and also No.3 nationally in three-point defense.
10) Symmetry II: SLU is No. 5 offensively in two-point shooting, and No. 3 defensively in two-point defense.
11) SLU is home against George Washington tonight (Tuesday) and will be home again Friday against Dayton. The KenPom projection model gives the Billikens an 85% probability of beating GW, and an 87% probability of defeating Dayton.
12) MobLand. Watch it on Paramount+ to see Tom Hardy, Hellen Mirren and Pierce Brosnan steal scenes from each other as the violence and depravity reaches the Sopranos level over 10 episodes – but only higher with more blood and gore and psychological carnage, and ruined lives and families.
13) Stop with the “JJ Wetherholt won’t make the Cards opening-day roster if he hits .211 or something like that in spring training” … stop it. If you judge spring training games by stats and stats only, then turn in your media credentials. I’m kidding. Kind of.
14) A couple of local online authors were upset at Keith Law (The Athletic) because he ranked Wetherholt at No. 7 on the MLB Top 100 Prospects List. One of the dramatists declared that JJ had been “shaded” by Law.
15) Umm .. Whaaat? “I wouldn’t want to change anything about his (hitting) approach,” Law wrote of Wetherholt. “He benefits by using the whole field and is very selective until he gets to two strikes, when he expands the zone more than a hitter with his hard-contact profile should. He’s the National League prospect about whom I’d feel most confident saying that he’ll win a batting average title some day.” My gosh, Law. How could you possibly savage a rookie prospect like that? You are a MONSTER, Law. Have you no decency?
SPEAKING OF PROSPECTING …
Another Day, Another Top 100 Prospect List: I’m just trying to keep y’all informed. I’m doing the tracking so you don’t have to if you don’t wanna. With the Cards in a rebuild, these prospect reports are important. A successful rebuild requires a successful draft-development operation.
The respected Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) put five Cardinals on the top o’ the heap prospects pile.
Infielder JJ Wetherholt, No. 7
Catcher Rainiel Rodriguez, No. 19
Pitcher Liam Doyle, No. 50
Outfielder Joshua Baez, No. 93
Catcher Leonardo Bernal, No. 98
A couple of comments from McDaniel on each Cardinal.
+ On Wetherholt: “Above-average tools with incredible feel for the game.” JJ reminds McDaniel of “shades of Geraldo Perdomo.”
+ On Rodriguez: “The selling point here is Rodriguez's big raw power and how good he is at getting to it in games. All the in-game power traits are here along with easy plus raw power and solid feel for contact and pitch selection.” McDaniel said Rodriguez reminds him of catcher Shea Langeliers.
+ On Doyle: “The stuff is big but the effort in Doyle's operation affects his stamina and command enough that there's a relief risk here, though he'd likely be a good closer.” McDaniel didn’t rank Doyle as highly as other evaluators because he believes Doyle will convert to a relief role. But Keith Law (The Athletic) is all-in on Doyle as a starter.
+ On Baez: “I'm not totally sold that he'll hit for a ton of average against big league arms, but he tweaked his setup enough to believe that he did improve a lot and he's now getting to his power in games.”
+ On Bernal: “A lower-end starter who could be ready by the end of 2026 … Bernal also projects to be at least average behind the plate with a strong caught stealing rate helped by his plus arm, though his framing numbers are well below average … He has a maxed-out frame and projects as average to a bit below as an offensive threat, so there isn't a ton of ceiling here, but approaching average offense from a good defensive catcher is easily an every-day player.”
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BERNIE BYTES
1. I’ve been thinking about upcoming Baseball Hall of Fame considerations, and Adam Wainwright’s pitching career compares pretty favorably when measured against Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. Hernandez and Lester are getting more attention than Waino. Hernandez won a Cy Young, and that’s a big deal. But Waino finished in the top 10 of the Cy voting five times, and he was in the top three on four occasions. Wainwright and Lester each had 200 career wins, but Waino has more career WAR than Lester and a better ERA. Both dudes had postseason success – slight edge to Lester – but Waino’s superb work as a rookie closer for the 2006 World Series-champion Cardinals really jumps out in any comparison. I’m not claiming Wainwright deserves to be voted into Cooperstown more than the other two pitchers. I’m just raising a point here: Wainwright should be in the conversation. And he should not be overlooked. (As Jim Edmonds was.)
2. Can I stay on the Cooperstown Hall of Fame convo? Thank you. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina will be eligible for induction in 2028. Pujols is automatic, but I’m curious to see how many attention-seeking idiots won’t vote for Albert on his first time on the ballot.
3. What about Molina? He should also be an automatic first-ballot choice – but you never know with these voters. Through the years there’s been an odd resentment of Molina by allegedly knowledgeable people who claim that he’s (A) overrated; (B) was flawed offensively; or (C) these folks with pickled brains hated all of the Molina worship by Cardinals fans. The pettiness is absolutely nuts.
4. The highly knowledgeable and objective Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs), a trustworthy Hall of Fame evaluator, believes Molina will make it in his first year of eligibility.
5. Here’s Jaffe’s assessment: “A 10-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner, Molina earned a reputation as one of the best at handling pitchers, both in terms of framing and game-calling. We have metrics to back up the first of those assertions, in that he’s fifth in our version of framing runs dating back to 2008, and fourth in the Baseball Prospectus version that goes back to 1988.
“As for the second, we have a lot of anecdotes as well as the fact that he was a part of 13 playoff teams, and the starter on two World Series winners and one more pennant winner, but we don’t have a real means of quantifying that value in runs.
“I have Molina fifth in my FanGraphs Framing-Inclusive JAWS. Combine that with the industry consensus of his future in Cooperstown, and I think he’ll have enough momentum to get in.”
6. Another Cooperstown confidential comes from the esteemed baseball columnist Jayson Stark (The Athletic), who put Jim Edmonds at No. 3 among five players he believes should be in the Hall of Fame. The first two names on Stark’s list were pitcher Curt Schilling and second baseman Lou Whitaker.
7. Here’s Stark on Edmonds: “Andruw Jones just got elected to the Hall. I think Edmonds actually had a better career. Edmonds won eight Gold Glove Awards, had a 132 career OPS+ and didn’t even make it to a second year on the ballot. Jones won 10 Gold Gloves and had a 111 OPS+. Edmonds’ case has been bugging me since he got bounced off the ballot 10 years ago. Let’s hope he shows up on an era-committee ballot soon. He hasn’t been eligible before now.”
8. I’m not complaining about anything Stark said there, and his support for Edmonds should be commended. But I’m gonna keep pounding on this, because folks don’t know it or won’t talk about it: Edmonds’ postseason hitting performance is one of the best of the wild-card era, which began in 1995. Among 50 hitters that have at least 250 plate postseason plate appearances over that time, Edmonds ranks 10th in OPS, 10th in slugging, 10th in wOBA, and is 12th in home runs, 12th in RBIs and and 13th in batting average.
9. Also on Stark’s list was longtime Astro Lance Berkman, who played a huge role in the Cardinals’ seizure of the World Series trophy in 2011. “Like Edmonds, Berkman was one-and-done on the writers’ ballot,” Stark wrote. “He might even be our worst one-and-done ever. Do you know who owns the best career OPS of any “clean” retired player who is eligible for the Hall? If you guessed Berkman (.943), you’re my kind of astute reader.”
10. I write too much. Too many words. Excess paragraphs. Well, what can I say? To quote Turnstile, that band from Baltimore: Never Enough. I like to say that I have the Word Virus. That’s the title of The William S. Burroughs Reader.
THE DAILY BRENDAN DONOVAN ROUND-UP
Robert Murray, FanSided: "The Cardinals' stance on Brendan Donovan is this: the Cardinals do not have to trade Brendan Donovan right now. He is under contract now and going forward. He's a player that they really, really like and they put a really high price tag on him this offseason. If they don't get an offer that is satisfactory to them, or does not blow them away, they will hold onto him. That is a luxury that can be afforded here. The Giants have been linked to Donovan. I don't know as of this point, if that is the most likely thing in the entire world. But the fit there still makes plenty of sense, so I guess you can never rule anything out. My inclination is that [Brendan Donovan and the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner] probably stay, but I can't rule anything out by any means.”
(So what you’re saying is, if I understand this correctly … you can’t rule anything out? Well, that sure narrows it down. Thank you, Robert.)
Jim Bowden, The Athletic: “Donovan is the best trade asset remaining for the Cardinals, and although they’re not looking to trade him, they will if they get the right return. I’ve been told by several executives the asking price is too high to consider at this point, but that could drop between now and Opening Day.”
Ken Rosenthal, Foul Territory: “I still believe the Cardinals are going to trade Donovan. It’s obvious their bar has not been hit. The standard they set for the return they want for Brendan Donovan just hasn’t come their way. Rosenthal added: “He’s been out there so long. Because Donovan has been discussed so heavily, he would be a guy it seems to me would at some point go.”
Yes. And with that, it is time for me to go.
Thanks for reading and please pardon my typos…
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.