STL Sports Central 2026 NHL Draft Watch – Version 1.0

The St. Louis Blues enter a pivotal summer with the second‑best lottery odds (13.5%). While they’re positioned for a franchise‑altering pick, simulations show they could just as easily slide to fourth or fifth. This first edition of our Draft Watch highlights the five prospects who best fit the Blues’ needs, whether they pick first or fall a few spots.

Stats gathered as of January 23, 2025

Ivar Stenberg (LW/RW) – Frölunda (SHL)

Ivar Stenberg has overtaken Gavin McKenna on several boards thanks to a rare blend of pace, intelligence, and pro‑ready detail. What began as a fun “brother storyline” has become a legitimate case for first overall.

Stenberg has 7 goals and 27 points in 28 SHL games, and 15 goals, 44 points in 50 games across all competitions. His underlying profile is elite for a teenage winger: 56% Corsi For, 52% puck‑battle win rate, and strong shot quality indicators, including 29 inner‑slot attempts and a 15% scoring‑chance conversion rate. His involvement rate — 3,183 puck touches and 338 OZ battles. He is driving play, not just complementing it.

The “For” Argument

Stenberg is the most complete forward in the draft. He plays fast, wins battles, and makes pro‑level decisions under pressure. His SHL production and microstats translate cleanly to the NHL.

The “Against” Argument

His ceiling is debated. Stenberg may project more as an elite top‑six driver than a true superstar. His finishing outside the slot is average, and he doesn’t flash the same raw dynamism as McKenna.

Why He Fits

A Stenberg‑Stenberg pairing would give the Blues a ready‑made identity line built on pace and intelligence. If St. Louis wins the lottery, this is the cleanest organizational fit.

Gavin McKenna (LW) – Penn State (NCAA)

McKenna remains the draft’s most explosive offensive talent. His transition to the NCAA hasn’t slowed his creativity or pace still looking like a future top‑line engine.

Across all NCAA competition and World Juniors, McKenna has 13 goals and 42 points in 30 games, with 214 shots, 84 scoring chances, and 262 controlled entries. His 87% passing accuracy and 3,734 puck touches so far this season show true elite involvement. At Penn State, he’s produced 26 points in 21 games, though his 39% Corsi For and 39–42% battle win rate show he’s still adjusting to NCAA physicality.

The “For” Argument

McKenna is the draft’s most dynamic creator. His rush game, deception, and touch give him superstar potential. He’s one of the only players in the class with true “change your franchise” upside.

The “Against” Argument

His even‑strength impact lags behind his total production. He relies heavily on the power play and struggled in battles this season. Call it the ‘NCAA-Adjustment’. 

Why He Fits

The Blues haven’t had a true offensive superstar since prime Tarasenko. McKenna would give Robert Thomas a long‑term running mate and reshape the team’s scoring identity.

Keaton Verhoeff (RHD) – North Dakota (NCAA)

If the Blues fall outside the top two, Verhoeff becomes the most logical pick. He is a big, mobile, right‑shot defenseman with a polished, pro‑ready game.

Verhoeff has been a force to be reckoned with across all competitions, scoring 6 goals and racking up 22 points in 33 games. He’s taken 121 shots, created 34 scoring chances, and boasts a solid 57% Corsi For. His impressive 58% puck-battle win rate, and 88% passing accuracy show a defender who confidently and effectively controls the game. At North Dakota, he’s played 424 minutes, created 25 scoring chances, and snagged 217 takeaways, showcasing his role as a top-pair player.

The “For” Argument

Verhoeff checks every NHL projection box: size, skating, intelligence, and consistency. He’s the safest top‑five defenseman in the class and a long‑term stabilizer on the right side.

The “Against” Argument

His ceiling is the question. Verhoeff may top out as a high‑end No. 2 rather than a true No. 1. His shot generation is steady, not dynamic.

Why He Fits

The Blues’ right side is thin, and Verhoeff directly addresses that organizational gap. Jiricek is looking like a strong Top-4 defender and the jury is still out on the young Logan Mailloux who is adjusting to the NHL. He’s the most reliable pick if St. Louis lands at 3 or 4.

Tynan Lawrence (C) – Boston University (NCAA)

Lawrence is the draft’s most well-rounded two-way center—a coach’s dream who plays with speed, precision, and maturity.

To date, Lawrence has scored 12 goals and accumulated 21 points in 24 games, with 67 scoring opportunities, 2,495 puck touches, and an impressive 83% pass completion rate. His 54% faceoff win rate and 51% battle win rate indicate a solid level of dependability. While he has scored once in six games at BU, his overall stats with an 85% passing, 55% battle win rate, and 52% faceoffs remain strong, even when he’s playing defense.

The “For” Argument

Lawrence is the safest center in the draft. He wins draws, drives transition, and plays a mature defensive game. He projects cleanly as a long‑term 2C.

The “Against” Argument

The ceiling is modest. His NCAA scoring hasn’t popped, and he may never be a primary offensive driver. He performed well at the USHL and will need to continue to grow and develop his game in the NCAA. 

Why He Fits

The Blues need center depth behind Thomas and Dalibor Dvorsky. Lawrence fills that void with intelligence, structure, and pro‑ready habits.

RELATED: Blues Send Steve Ott to Springfield in a Development‑Driven Midseason Shake‑Up

Chase Reid (RHD) – Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Reid has skyrocketed into the top‑five conversation thanks to his elite skating, constant activation, and a massive involvement rate.

Reid’s been a force across all competitions, racking up 19 goals and 47 points in 45 games. He’s taken 383 shots, and created 86 scoring chances. His impressive 63% Corsi For and 60% battle win rate really highlight his control on the ice. In the OHL, he’s scored 43 points in 37 games, with 338 shots, 77 scoring chances, and a passing accuracy of 87%. And his World Juniors performance—4 points, 89% passing, and 64% Corsi—shows that he can handle bigger stages.

The “For” Argument

Reid brings something the Blues lack currently in the NHL: a dynamic, pace‑driving right‑shot defenseman who can turn retrievals into offense instantly. Add Reid along with Jiricek and the Blues could have a very deep defensive group. 

The “Against” Argument

His defensive reads can be inconsistent, and his inner‑slot defense remains a work in progress. There is a wonder how much of his production is system‑driven.

Why He Fits

If the Blues want to modernize their blue line with speed and puck‑possession, Reid is the most impactful option outside the top two.