The St. Louis Blues aren’t old. They aren’t rebuilding. They aren’t catastrophically unlucky. They’re simply… below average. And as the season crosses the halfway mark, the numbers paint a sobering picture: a 17‑19‑8 record, a –43 goal differential, and a team that has yet to win three straight games.
When a roster sits this squarely in the middle of the league’s mushy middle, the natural question becomes unavoidable:
Can the Blues keep moving forward with Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Pavel Buchnevich as their primary play drivers?
To answer that, we need to look at what these three are giving the team, not just in raw production, but in usage, possession, luck, and how each compares to their own career norms.
Robert Thomas
This season:
• 40 GP, 10 G, 30 PTS, –2
• 58 shots (very low for a top center)
• 17.2% shooting
• 48.6 CF%, 100.4 PDO
• 47.3% offensive zone starts
Career norms:
• 19 goals, 69 points per 82 games
• 14.9% shooting
• 50.2 CF%, 101.3 PDO
Thomas is the most stable of the trio. His production is fine, his defensive usage is heavy, and his results aren’t inflated or deflated by luck. But the deeper you look, the clearer the ceiling becomes.
He’s not tilting the ice. He’s not generating shots. He’s not elevating teammates.
Thomas is a good 1B center on a contending team, and a 1A center on a non-playoff team. However, on a team scoring 20 fewer goals than league average, “good” isn’t enough to drive winning. He’s steady, but he’s not a franchise engine.
Jordan Kyrou
This season:
• 34 GP, 8 G, 17 PTS, –10
• 83 shots
• 9.6% shooting
• 55.2 CF% (elite)
• 94.0 PDO (brutal luck)
• 65.4% offensive zone starts
Career norms:
• 29 goals, 64 points per 82 games
• 13.3% shooting
• 50.7 CF%, 99.3 PDO
Kyrou is the most fascinating case. His possession numbers are outstanding. He’s the only Blues forward consistently pushing play in the right direction. But everything else is working against him:
• His finishing is down
• His linemates aren’t finishing
• His goalies aren’t saving
• His PDO is one of the lowest among top‑six forwards league‑wide
• His usage is heavily sheltered, signaling low defensive trust
This is the classic “good process, bad results” season. Kyrou isn’t broken — but he’s not producing like a top‑line winger, and the coaching staff clearly doesn’t see him as a two‑way cornerstone.
Pavel Buchnevich
This season:
• 44 GP, 7 G, 23 PTS, –11
• 76 shots
• 9.2% shooting
• 48.7 CF%, 97.9 PDO
Career norms:
• 24 goals, 62 points per 82 games
• 14.2% shooting
• 49.8 CF%, 101.4 PDO
Buchnevich’s numbers tell the most troubling story. His shot volume is down, his finishing is down, his play‑driving is down, and his luck is only slightly below normal, not enough to explain the drop. At age 30, this is exactly when wingers often begin to decline. And the Blues are paying him like a top‑six driver through 2030.
Right now, he’s giving them middle‑six production and middle‑six impact.
The Blues’ team metrics match their top forwards almost perfectly:
• Goals For: 110 (league average: 130)
• Power Play: 16.52% (league average: 20.51%)
• Penalty Kill: 76.52% (league average: 79.49%)
• Team Shooting %: 10.1% (league average: 10.9%)
• Team CF%: 47.6%
This is a team that is below average everywhere, scoring, possession, special teams, finishing, and momentum. And their top trio reflects that:
• Thomas: steady but not a driver
• Kyrou: strong process, terrible results
• Buchnevich: real decline
None of them are playing above expectations. None of them are elevating the roster. None of them are consistently driving wins.
So… Can the Blues move forward with these three as their core? That’s the uncomfortable question. If the Blues want to be competitive, they need their highest‑paid forwards to be:
• play‑drivers
• finishers
• possession tilters
• special teams anchors
• momentum creators
Right now, they have:
• one steady player (Thomas)
• one snakebit play‑driver (Kyrou)
• one declining winger (Buchnevich)
That’s not a core that pushes you toward contention. It’s a core that keeps you stuck in the middle. The Blues aren’t bad enough to bottom out. They aren’t good enough to rise. They’re trapped and their top trio is a big reason why. Unless something changes between their usage, system, roster construction, or personnel, it’s fair to question whether this trio can be the foundation of a winning team moving forward.
The Blues don’t need to blow it up. But they do need to ask the hard question:
Is this the right core to build around, or just the core they’re stuck with?