Cardinals pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to spring-training camp in Jupiter only 37 days from now, with the first full-squad workout set for Feb. 16. We’re getting closer, my friends.
So I need to do some warming up.
A lot can change between now and the next five weeks, but as I loosen my typing digits today, here are 26 thoughts, opinions, and bits of info about the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. And a few other things that stray from that timeline.
1. I still believe Brendan Donovan will be traded. Chaim Bloom should take as much time as he needs to play teams against each other to attract the best offer for Donovan. I don’t understand people who have grown impatient with the Donovan trade saga. Just a reminder (again) that the Cardinals acquired one of the best players in franchise history, Jim Edmonds, during 2000 spring training – only 11 days before the regular-season opener. In 1996 the Cardinals acquired closer Dennis Eckersley from the A’s just before the official opening of spring training. The Cards also signed free-agent starting pitcher Kyle Lohse on March 13 of 2008. And several relievers were signed during spring training or just before the start of the regular season including All-Star Pat Neshek, Bud Norris and Greg Holland.
2. I still believe Nolan Arenado will be traded, but I can’t entirely rule out his return to the Cardinals for the start of the 2026 season. Best bet: the Angels.
3. Is there any hope for an Arenado bounce back offensively in 2026? Before you say “absolutely not,” then I would advise you to look at Toronto’s George Springer. In 2023 at age 33, Springer (per wRC+) was three percent above league average offensively, a drop of 30% from 2022. In 2024 at age 34, Springer declined to six percent below league average, and he slugged a career-low .371. But in 2025, his age-35 season, Springer recharged for a wRC+ that was a stunning 66 percent above league average offensively. Springer’s comeback included 32 home runs, his most since 2019, and he generated a career-high .560 slugging percentage.
4. Keeping that in mind, here’s my friend Travis Sawchik, writing for MLB.com: “Arenado has already produced his own Springer-like season. He produced a career-best 149 wRC+ in 2022 at age 31 after spending an offseason focused on a bat-speed training regimen he learned working with Driveline Baseball.
“Arenado came to Driveline Baseball for assessment late in the 2025 season and plans to again focus on bat-speed training,” Sawchik continued. “One of the important lessons from Springer's 2025 season -- and Arenado's 2022 -- is that hitters have agency. They can make an effort to defy the aging curve a bit longer by focusing on skills like adding bat speed or improving bat path, etc. Springer did not just enjoy random statistical variation in 2025 -- he actively sought to improve his skills under Popkins. The benefits can be enormous. Arenado's glove remains above average, so if he gets more from his bat he could add significant performance value.”
5. Very interesting. OK, should the Cardinals keep ‘Nado? I’m kidding. I think. But the Springer parallel offers some optimism. Can you imagine if the Cardinals traded Arenado for little prospect capital in return, gave $15 million to his new team to help defray his contract cost – only to see Arenado rebound with a good season offensively? Cardinals fans would rip Chaim Bloom with the usual “I told you so” stuff … even those who did nothing of the sort and were rooting for an Arenado trade.
6. Unless there’s an injury in spring training, pitcher Kyle Leahy will not only be in the Cardinals’ starting rotation at the beginning of the regular season – but he will exceed expectations and get the national baseball pundits buzzing. He’ll be Michael McGreevy with higher-quality pitches … and a larger variety of pitches.
7. I’d be OK with a catching-platoon arrangement that had rookie Jimmy Crooks starting against right-handed pitchers, and Pedro Pages starting vs. lefties. Playing for Double A Springfield in 2024, the left-swinging Crooks smashed right-handed pitchers for a .331 average, .404 OBP and .528 slug. He hit right-handers for a .417 slug and .742 OPS at Triple A Memphis last season while adjusting to a higher level.
8. If that means Ivan Herrera mostly lines up at designated hitter in 2026, then I’m good with that. Let the dude focus entirely on hitting, because Herrera has tremendous upside offensively and can be an important core lineup piece for several seasons (if not more.)
9. The Cardinals have acquired lefty reliever Justin Bruihl from Cleveland for cash considerations. His career MLB numbers for the Dodgers, Rockies, Pirates and Blue Jays aren’t much to look at. But here’s what you need to know: in 2024, Bruihl threw his sinker 30 percent of the time - and upped that to 50 percent in 2025. When using the improved sinker while pitching for Toronto last season, Bruihl allowed an expected batting average of .241 and an expected slug of .353. But that pitch got him a putaway rate of 36.7 percent. After having a mediocre strikeout rate for his first four seasons in the majors, Bruihl suddenly struck out 11.9 hitters per 9 innings in limited duty for Toronto last season. That was a big jump. Obviously the new Cardinals regime, which includes director of pitching Matt Pierpont – identified reasons for wanting him. Let’s see what they found that led them to believe they can make Bruihl a more effective pitcher. His numbers over the last two seasons were inflated by a crazy, bad-luck .446 batting average against him on balls in play.
10. This move for Bruihl is being linked to the likely offload of Cards lefty reliever JoJo Romero, an apparent connection that had some in the media hyperventilating. I hate to break it to them, but when Romero is traded it will have absolutely absolutely nothing to do with Bruihl’s addition. Pitching depth is good. Pitching depth at a low price is helpful. Relax.
11. Is JJ Wetherholt a winner? Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com made some predictions for 2026 awards and went with Wetherholt, the top Cardinals prospect, as the National League Rookie of the Year.
“Nolan McLean was an insta-ace for the Mets down the stretch last season and, therefore, the likely favorite in the NL,” Castrovince wrote. “As much as I’d love to go with that, let’s pivot to a Cardinals kid with a clear opportunity to meaningfully impact what is bound to be a new-look roster. Brendan Donovan is still with the Cards as I type this, but I would expect that to change and Wetherholt’s above-average offensive game to earn him ample playing time in the infield.”
12. I’m just saying … when we talk about Cardinals’ third basemen of fairly recent vintage, the comparison of Nolan Arenado to David Freese isn’t as lopsided as you’d assume. Defensively, yes. Arenado is among the greatest defensive third basemen in MLB history.
What about offense? Using the stats compiled while each man played for the Cardinals, here’s what we’re looking at:
— Batting average: Freese .286, Arenado .266
— Onbase percentage: Freese .356, Arenado .322
— Slugging percentage: Arenado .456, Freese .427.
— OPS: Freese .783, Arenado .778.
— wRC+: Freese 19 percent above league average offensively. Arenado 12 percent above league average.
Postseason? Please.
Freese: In 48 postseason games as a Cardinal, Freese batted .289 with a .518 slug and .875 OPS. He cracked 7 home runs, produced 16 other extra-base hits, and drove in 29 runs. In 2011, Freese had the greatest postseason by a Cards hitter in franchise history. His rampage included a .397 average, .794 slug, 1.258 OPS, 14 extra-base hits, 21 RBIs, the MVP award of the 2011 NLCS, the MVP award of the 2011 World Series, the epic Game 6, and a wRC+ that put Freese at 145 percent above league average offensively.
Arenado: three postseason games, all losses. He went 1 for 12 at the plate (a single) with no walks, two strikeouts and an 0-for-4 performance with runners in scoring position. Two words: no contest.
13. When we talk about the team’s greatest third basemen during the 26-season stretch from 2000 through 2025, I’d still rate Scott Rolen at the top, ahead of Freese (No. 2) and Arenado (No. 3.) But even then, Freese put up postseason numbers that were massively higher than Rolen’s. As I said in my Tuesday video, Freese is on a short list of the Cardinals’ most underrated players since 2000.
14. On Nolan Gorman: opinions are mixed within the Cardinals’ organization. Has Gorman received a full opportunity to establish himself as a hitter worthy of a regular lineup spot? His supporters say “no,” largely because in a so-called runway season Gorman had the same amount of plate appearances in 2025 as he did in 2024. He wasn’t in the lineup as much as expected. And there’s also the matter of Gorman’s home-run power for a team that doesn’t have much of that; he’s smacked a homer every 19 at-bats for the Cards. And Gorman doesn’t turn 26 until May. Gorman skeptics inside the organization point to his 1,581 career plate appearances, a so-so .419 slugging percentage and a 34 percent strikeout rate as a Cardinal. And their view: we’ve seen enough. Does this mean Gorman is on the trading block?
15. I’m intrigued by this young fella named Emanuel Luna. He’ll turn 17 years old later this month. On the amateur international market, MLB Pipeline rated him 9th overall on an extensive list of talented players. Baseball America has Luna 10th. A right-handed hitting outfielder, Luna has agreed to terms and will officially sign with the Cardinals as early as Jan. 15. His signing bonus will be an estimated $2.3 million.
Here’s one scouting report from a baseball writer in the Dominican Republic: “At just 16, Luna is already being compared to Aaron Judge for his impressive physique and batting power. With an exit velocity of up to 110 mph, Luna is one of the standout figures in the 2026 international signing class. His projection as a 30-30 player makes him a key piece for the Cardinals' future.”
16. You want more on Luna? OK. This is from MLB Pipeline: “With that muscled up physique, it should come as no surprise that Luna boasts tons of raw power coiled up in his right-handed swing. He consistently sprays the ball to all fields, all while showing balance and bat control. Few hitters in his class can match his advanced feel for hitting or strike-zone recognition, while he displays all of the top-tier traits as it pertains to approach at the dish. His biggest supporters believe there is even more to come at the plate in time as he continues to face advanced pitching and receives pro instruction.”
17. And “Luna is built like a football tailback with powerful legs that allow him to scoot around the basepaths. He’s a solid defender whose arm stands out more for its accuracy than its strength, but he will make his money in the pro game with his bat and wheels. There's a definite 20/20 upside with the potential for more should all of his tools come together.”
18. Another reason for excitement over Emanuel Luna: his deep roots in the rich baseball soil in Santo Domingo, the capitol city of the Dominican Republic. A remarkable amount of talent has gone from the playing fields of Santo Domingo to major-league stardom.
19. Here are just some of the MLB hitters that hail from Santo Domingo:
Albert Pujols
Adrian Beltre
Manny Mota
Cesar Cedeno
David Ortiz
Juan Soto
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Santana
Junior Caminero
Jeremy Pena
Marcell Ozuna
Aramis Ramirez
Willy Adames
Jose Bautista
Carlos Pena
Jhonny Peralta
Melky Cabrera
Victor Robles
Bryan De La Cruz
Carlos Gomez
Alfredo Griffin
Ramon Laureano
Starling Marte
Gregory Polanco
Gary Sanchez
Felix Jose
Jose Reyes
Christopher Morel
Domingo Santana
Luis Polonia
Eloy Jimenez
Henry Rodriguez
Ahmad Rosario
Geraldo Perdomo
And so many others. Could Luna become another gold-plated hitter from Santo Domingo? If so, the Cardinals will have a star.
20. MLB Pipeline put together a list of 26 prospects who are primed to break out in 2026 – one for each team. For the Cardinals, the choice was left-handed pitcher Cade Crossland, a fourth-round pick (120th overall) in last year’s draft.
Here’s the Pipeline report. “After stints in Division II and the JuCo ranks, Crossland transferred to Oklahoma for 2025, only to strain a back muscle in the fallHe was picking up velocity as the spring wore on, touching 97-98 mph in May, and that helped him go to the Cardinals in the fourth round. His 83-85 mph changeup already profiles as a plus pitch, and if the velocity continues to pick up with more distance from the back injury, he could have two such plus offerings. Finding consistency in his breaking stuff -- with a slider and curve that blend together -- should be a priority in pro ball.”
21. Baseball America offered a 2026 New Year’s resolution for all 30 MLB farm systems. The suggested Cardinals’ resolution: Keep stockpiling prospects.
“It’s no secret the direction the Cardinals are going in,” Jesus Cano wrote of STL’s harvest of prospects that came over in trades for Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton, Steven Matz, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. “It’s a methodical reset, one aimed at creating internal options rather than chasing quick fixes. If St. Louis stays patient and continues to develop this growing pool of prospects, the foundation for sustained competitiveness could start to take shape over the next few seasons.”
22. I’m thinking Mike Matheny warrants a spot in the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I have my reasons for thinking that way.
– As a catcher for the Cardinals for five seasons (2000 through 2004) Matheny won three Gold Gloves and was part of a strong leadership core that led the team into the playoffs in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004.
– In Matheny’s five seasons as the team’s primary catcher, the Cardinals ranked fifth among the 30 teams in ERA and were 4th in regular-season wins and tied for second for most postseason victories.
– In 88 postseason plate appearances Matheny batted .253 with two homers, three doubles and 10 RBIs. And the St. Louis pitching staff had a 3.95 postseason ERA that was fifth best over the five-season period.
– In six–plus seasons as St. Louis manager, Matheny guided the Cardinals to a strong .555 winning percentage and got his team into the playoffs four times, capped by an NL pennant in 2013. And he did so without Albert Pujols and pitching coach Dave Duncan.
– Matheny’s .555 winning percentage as STL manager is higher than that of iconic Cardinals managers Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog and Red Schoendienst. Yeah, Matheny made some blunders as a postseason manager, and I was tough on him, but his unique body of work as a successful catcher and manager shouldn’t be taken lightly. Matheny had an impressive Cardinals career. And though the managing gig ended just before the 2018 All-Star break, I don’t see a reason to snub Matheny as a team Hall of Fame candidate.
23. How important are home runs? Very. But hold that thought for a few moments. During the DeWitt Era of ownership (1996-2025) the ‘25 Cardinals hit the seventh-lowest number of home runs (148) by the team in a full season. However … Four Cardinal teams hit fewer than 148 home runs in a full season and still made the playoffs: 142 homers in 1996 … 137 homers in 2015 … 125 HRs in 2013 … and only 105 in 2014. So, yeah, it’s possible to earn a postseason spot with limited home-run power. I’ll explore that more deeply in an upcoming column.
24. Willson Contreras is gonna love hitting at Fenway Park, his new baseball home. In his three seasons as a Cardinal, Contreras slugged .424 at Busch Stadium – and .491 on the road. He had a .171 Isolated Power rate at Busch Stadium – and his ISO was 53 points higher on the road. Contreras homered every 27.6 at-bats at Busch, and hit a home run every 18.7 at-bats on the road. His overall offensive performance (per wRC+) was 23 percent above league average at Busch, and 35% above average on the road.
25. Chaim Bloom keeps talking about adding a right-handed bat for the 2026 Cardinals … but I’m not sure what he has in mind. Will it be an ambitious endeavor to secure a RH hitter, or are we talking about a standard-issue bench piece and platoon bat?
26. I wrote a little something about Jose Fermin a while back, and I want to do it again: in limited action with the big club last season (70 plate appearances), Fermin hit .283 with a superb .377 OBO and a decent .417 slug. His wRC+ put Fermin at 29 percent above league average offensively. That’s a small sample size, yes. But for what it’s worth, Fermin’s wRC+ was second-best on the team to Ivan Herrera. And his OPS (.793) was third behind Herrera and Alec Burleson.
Fermin’s plate discipline is terrific; last season he walked only 11.4 percent of the time and had a low 14.4% strikeout rate. Among MLB hitters that had a minimum 70 plate appearances last season, Fermin had the third-best chase rate, swinging at pitches outside the strike zone only 15.8 percent of the time. That’s fantastic.
And though Fermin bats from the right side, he was 30 percent above average offensively against righty pitchers – compared to 19% above average vs. lefties. Oh yeah: and Fermin batted .385 with runners in scoring position last season. He can play second base, third base or take some shifts in a corner outfield spot. I could go on … but the one thing I can’t do is see how Fermin fits into 2026 … will he receive an opportunity? He’s only 26. It makes sense for the Cardinals to try to identify what they have in Fermin. But will there be room for him? Lame answer: we’ll see.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.